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Dear Colleague,

Welcome to our August newsletter.

We are pleased to announce that our third Annual Conference, entitled "Understanding Social Macroeconomics", will take place from 21 – 23 October, via Zoom. The conference overview and speakers will be announced shortly.  

Our research projects are making steady, albeit sometimes COVID-19 delayed, progress towards completion. We are very pleased to report the following three projects completed last month. The links take you to the working papers and blogs.

Daniela Gabor, Yannis Dafermos, and Jo Michell. Institutional Supercycles: An Evolutionary Macro-Finance Approach, WP (15)

Yuemei Ji and Paul Grauwe Banks and Macroeconomic Stability. A Behavioural Macroeconomic Approach, WP (14)

David Tuckett, Douglas Holmes, Alice Pearson and Graeme Chaplin. Monetary Policy and the Management of Uncertainty: a Narrative Approach, WP (13)

We have extended the deadline for our Research Competition on Complexity in Macroeconomics due to COVID-19. We would like to especially encourage submissions from young researchers applying the tools of complexity science to macroeconomics. Please do forward the details to anyone you know who might be interested.

We also have a number of published papers on COVID, one of particular note by Doyne Farmer and colleagues on How to Restart the UK Economy using production network analysis.

All information and videos of past conferences are on our website or can be found by clicking on the links. If you would like to join any of our events, please ask Richard at r.arnold@niesr.ac.uk

 

Thank you, stay safe and best wishes,

 

Angus Armstrong
Director, Rebuilding Macroeconomics

Please spread the word if you know friends and colleagues who would like to engage with Rebuilding Macroeconomics by forwarding this newsletter and invite them to subscribe here. You can follow all of our news through our website, www.rebuildingmacroeconomics.ac.uk, on Twitter and YouTube.

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Third Annual Conference via Zoom

Our third annual conference from 21-23 October (via Zoom) will be looking at how socio-economic systems continually adapt and re-invent themselves, enabling more and more citizens to prosper over time. COVID19 crisis has made it abundantly clear just how much we directly interact. We engage in almost continuous mutually beneficial interactions to meet our needs for care, sharing ideas and others including our material needs through exchange. These interactions are structurally organized. As each tier of the structure responds to its changing environment agents face constantly changing contexts in which to make decisions. This is the world of radical and kaleidoscopic uncertainty.

Programme details and speakers will be announced soon.

Publications

As our research projects come to completion, we will publish the working papers on our Publications page alongside our Special Issue E-Journal publications and discussion papers.

Working Paper Series

Working Paper No. 15: Instiuttional Supercycles: An Evolutionary Macro-Finance, by Daniela Gabor, Yannis Dafermos, and Jo Michell

Thwarting mechanisms are institutional structures that aim to stabilise the macrofinancial system. The effectiveness of such structures changes over time, creating a secular cyclical pattern in capitalism: the supercycle. The supercycles framework can be used to explain and anticipate macroeconomic, financial and thus political developments, and moves beyond conventional approaches in which such developments are treated as exogenous shocks.

Working Paper No. 14: Banks and Macroeconomic Stability. A Behavioural Macroeconomic Approach, by Yuemei Ji, Paul Grauwe

We present a behavioural macroeconomic model with a banking sector. The loan supply of banks are not constrained by the saving of the economy but by their equity and reserve position. This feature, together with the influence of ‘animal spritis’ (optimism and pessimism), generates strong pro-cyclicality in the behaviour of banks and hence strong volatility in the macroeconomy. We show that there is a greater responsibility on the central bank using interest rate policies to ensure stability of the system when there is a banking sector than in its absence. We also show that this model is useful to analyse the effectiveness of the macroprudential and quantitative easing (QE) policies in stabilizing the macroeconomy.

Working Paper No. 13: Monetary Policy and the Management of Uncertainty: a Narrative Approach, by David Tuckett, Douglas Holmes, Alice Pearson and Graeme Chaplin

In this paper we explore how macroeconomic theory might be augmented, and the practice of monetary policy better understood, if approached through ideas from social and psychological science. A modern, inflation-targeting central bank faces ‘radical’ uncertainty both in understanding the economy and in knowing how best to communicate policy decisions to influence behaviour. We make use of narrative theory to explore these challenges, drawing on fieldwork with the Bank’s regional Agencies and conversations with staff and policy-makers. We find that the intelligence gathered from conversations with businesses is uniquely useful for both the analysis and communication of monetary policy.

Call for Papers

Research Competition: Complexity in Macroeconomics

We announce a competition for papers on the subject of Complexity and Macroeconomics. By complexity we mean incorporating realistic portrayals of human action and institutions to better understand how economic systems evolve dynamically over time. The T & Cs can be found here. Good luck!

Exit Strategy Workshop Recordings

We have hosted 8 Exit Strategy workshops. The recordings of all 8 events can be found here. We are preparing further workshops along with our colleagues at the OECD’s New Approaches to Economic Challenges (NAEC) initiative. More information will be announced soon

New Blogs: Insights & Disruptive Thinking Wanted

We invite you to read the blogs here and leave a comment.

We invite you to read the blogs here and leave a comment.

We offer a platform to different voices interested in macroeconomics. We welcome and encourage blog posts around the challenge of rebuilding macroeconomics. You can find our current blogs here.
FIND OUT MORE HERE
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www.rebuildingmacroeconomics.ac.uk
 

Our mailing address is:

Rebuilding Macroeconomics, NIESR

2 Dean Trench Street

Smith Square

London, SW1P 3HE

United Kingdom


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