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Weekly Summary as at: 3 September 2020
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At a national level, hydro storage has remained below the tenth percentile since late June. However, immediate risk to security of supply remains low due to thermal generation availability and declining risk curves from now until summer.

Over the past week national hydro storage has increased by one percentage point to 66% of the historical average for this time of year. South Island hydro storage increased by one point to 67% of average despite lower than average inflows. This was due to large increases at Te Anau and Manapouri where generation was reduced. North Island hydro storage increased by two points to 56% of average, with above average inflows for last week.

The Electricity Risk Curve and Simulated Storage Trajectories update for August has been completed. There has been a small increase in risk for September 2020 which is the result of more outages being modelled as confirmed for this month. Future months show little change as inputs have remained similar. We also created a thermal generation scenario this month to consider a closure of one CCGT following the modelled Tiwai exit next August. As can be seen in both these scenarios we expect to see hydro storage levels to improve by next autumn due increased spring and summer inflows. In both scenarios, no projected storage positions cross into ‘Watch’ status.

Outages at Pohokura are currently planned to finish on 12 September; during these we have observed some changes to thermal generation. See this week’s Market Summary for more detail.  

Genesis option of running three Rankine’s is now considered expired and has been removed from our modelling.

Nationally, weekly electricity demand rose by 1% to 812 GWh. 

Renewable energy decreased by two percentage points to 77% corresponding with lower hydro generation.

Full report available here

Next Report

The next scheduled weekly Security of Supply Report is due Thursday 10 September 2020.

Transpower Website

If you have any queries, please email system.operator@transpower.co.nz.
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