Sept. 29, 2020 updates for the Census 2020 Hard to Count/Response Rate map

U.S. Achieves 2010 Self-Response Rate Goal as Door-Knocking Continues; HTC Map Shows Self-Response Increases During NRFU

America's self-response rate for the 2020 Census is now at the same level as the final rate during the 2010 Census. Based on today's data published by the Census Bureau, 66.5% of the nation's homes have filled out the census questionnaire on their own. This milestone was achieved as the door-knocking operation to count non-responding households continues, and as the Census Bureau's efforts to shorten the enumeration timeframe are being challenged in court.

For months, census stakeholders and the funders supporting them have focused their Get Out the Count (GOTC) efforts on boosting the 2020 Census self-response rate. An important goal was to achieve at least the level of self-response as the 2010 Census (understanding the important differences between both censuses). Many states and local communities have already met and surpassed their individual 2010 rates, but at the national level the 66.5% rate was not achieved until today.

The map below from our online HTC/Response Rate map highlights this accomplishment. The map also shows in green the 24 states (almost half) that have met or surpassed their statewide 2010 rates.

This achievement is a testament to local and nationwide stakeholders and many others (the Census Bureau included) who have promoted the importance of filling out the 2020 Census form on your own. Self-response provides the most robust data in the most efficient, least expensive way. It is also an important marker regarding data quality: low self-response rates are correlated with lower census data quality. In 2010, even with a 66.5% self-response rate, the count had substantial undercounts of children under age 5, people of color, and Native Americans on reservation land.

Meeting the 2010 self-response rate in 2020 may not mean that the 2020 count will avoid similar (or worse) undercounts. The significant disruptions to the current census from COVID-19, the administration's (albeit failed) effort to add a citizenship question, and the Bureau's recent efforts to rush field operations may be greater factors in determining accuracy and any differential undercounts. But reaching the 2010 self-response rate goal was something even the Census Bureau did not expect, so it's a reason to cheer the hard work of census stakeholders & their supporters nationwide.

Local self-response rates rising nationwide

Even as census stakeholders celebrate this national milestone, and as the door-knocking continues, self-response rates are rising across the country. We have highlighted these increases on the HTC/Response Rate map. 

The screenshot below, for example, color-codes each census tract in and around New York City based on self-response increases during the nonresponse follow-up (NRFU) operation. In NYC, NRFU began in most areas on August 6. Since then, the citywide self-response rate has increased by almost 6 percentage points. Locally the greatest increases in this time are especially notable in eastern Queens and southern Brooklyn, highlighted in darker green on the map below and at this link.

Self-response increases during the door-knocking operation only tell part of the enumeration story. If the Census Bureau is doing a thorough job, most of the households that hadn't self-responded by Aug. 6 (in this example) will be enumerated in-person. And you can view the progress on our map of the door-knocking effort via the "NRFU Completion Rate" map layer accessible in the map's legend.

But if the door-to-door enumeration is rushed to meet an early Sept. 30 (or Oct 5) deadline and an excessive number of households are counted via "proxy" (relying on someone else for a household's data) or using administrative records (which can systematically omit groups already likely to be missed), or worse if units are deemed vacant without confirming whether people lived there on April 1 (Census Day), the quality of the count will suffer. Self-response during this time, even if a household was already visited by an enumerator, can help offset some of these data quality concerns. (However, people should readily talk with enumerators who visit to count the household in-person.).

As always, we encourage and appreciate feedback about these new features. Please let us know if you're able to put this information to use, and if we can improve the map for your work. Thanks!

Links to earlier updates

Make sure to follow us on Twitter at @Census2020Map !

The HTC 2020 map is a work in progress. Other recent updates and enhancements are described here:

• September 4, 2020: Census Bureau releases door-knocking completion rates for each "Area Census Office" across the U.S.
• August 27, 2020: 2020 Census Total Response Rates added to the map; tracts receiving a 7th mailing also highlighted.
• August 11, 2020: Census self-response analysis leading into door-knocking follow-up; 8 million more homes need to be visited compared with 2010 in a shorter timeframe.
• August 5, 2020: Online maps pinpoint areas at greatest risk of a rushed 2020 Census.
• July 24, 2020: Door-knocking enumeration begins in selected areas; our map shows where and what to expect. Also updates on latest response rate analysis & recent online census self-response highlights.
• July 15, 2020: New "Data Trends" feature added to the mapping site, with dynamic trendlines & animated map of response rate trajectories. Estimated response rates by state legislative district also added to the map.
• June 25, 2020: Dynamic new metric to tract response rates at the tract, city, & county levels. Examples of other resources analyzing the latest 2020 Census self-response rates, and our latest analysis of the nation's response rate trends.
• May 27, 2020: Update/Leave operations have resumed in 42 states & Puerto Rico; rates are increasing slowly nationwide but bright spots highlight importance of census outreach to continue to boost response; tracts with lowest response rates are very different than tracts with highest rates.
• May 14, 2020: New map search feature for Area Census Offices (where the Update/Leave operation is resuming), our latest self-response rate analysis (Week7), & links to other projects analyzing self-response rates.
• May 6, 2020: News about where the Update/Leave operation is resuming, and our latest self-response rate analyses (Weeks 4, 5, & 6).
• April 13, 2020: Week 3 Response Rate Analysis; Trendlines Added to the Map.
• April 7, 2020: Week 2 Response Rate analysis; Tribal Lands added to the map.
• April 3, 2020: Census 2020 HTC map news: "Census Day" Self-Response Bump; Data Q&A.
• March 31, 2020: Week 1 Response Rate analysis.
• March 23, 2020: Update on mapping self-response rates, with emphasis on the 2020 progress bar that fills in daily after the latest rates are published, easy share/embed options for your map, and some notes on the data.
• March 19 2020: In a joint statement with our colleagues at the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights (LCCHR), we highlighted the importance of a fair and accurate 2020 Census as the coronavirus challenges grow, and lifted up the resources available at our HTC 2020 map to help inspire Americans to fill out the 2020 Census form on their own. Self-responding helps ensure that the Census Bureau collects reliable data about the nation's population. And self-responding is a way to practice social distancing because it avoids a knock at your door later on from a census taker.
• March 2020: The HTC map is now focused on census self-response rates. All the former info at the map is still there. But now that census mailings are going out, the map has been updated to reflect 2010 response rates in anticipation of integrating 2020 real-time rates after March 20. NB: the map not only displays response rates for each state, county, and tract, but also include a bar chart in the map's left-hand panel that shows the 2010 rate (and 2000, for historical context) for now. The 2020 column in the bar chart is empty, but it will start to go up after March 20. How quickly and how far it rises depends on local census stakeholders!
• February 2020: New data on the risk of undercounting young children, in collaboration with the Population Reference Bureau. For more info, visit PRB's website.
• January 2020: To help promote the official start of the 2020 Census in Alaska, we added a special "It Starts Here" (in Toksook Bay, AK) graphic on the map. Updates in January also included new 2014-2018 population estimates for tracts, counties, states, legislative districts, and more.
• December 2019: New advanced tract search feature, statewide maps of Census Bureau contact strategies, and more.
• November 2019: Comprehensive information for all 2020 Census contact techniques combined in one place at the HTC 2020 map, so census stakeholders can more easily inform local residents about what to expect when the 2020 decennial census takes place. Also see the CUNY Center for Urban Research website for a state-by-state analysis.
• October 2019: Updates to TEA designations; the latest examples of groups using the HTC map across the country; enhancing the HTC metrics with the Census Bureau's "low response score", the Urban Institute's projections of undercount by state; & more.
• August 2019: In-Field Address Canvassing areas & stats on the map; organizations that are using the HTC map for local grant assistance; new examples of linking to and/or embedding the HTC map.
• July 2019: new feature to highlight tracts based on share of households without internet access; a list of other census maps nationwide, and more.
• June 2019: Census contacts by state/county; census tract search feature.
• April 2019: customized printing, data downloads, and more.
• March 2019: mapping Type of Enumeration Areas (TEA) and Area Census Offices (ACOs)
• January 2019: new ACS data for the 2013-17 period (including internet access), new legislative info, public library locations, and tribal lands added to the map.

If you haven't signed up for our HTC 2020 map updates, please do so here.

We look forward to hearing your suggestions for improving the map. Please contact the Mapping Service at the CUNY Graduate Center with your feedback.

Thanks!

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