Princeton Gerrymandering Project

Update - Oct. 23, 2020

Ballot measures
 
In 2020, measures in Arkansas, Oklahoma, Nevada, Oregon, Nebraska, and North Dakota failed to make the ballot due to court technicalities and the covid-19 outbreak.  There are still, however, two big questions affecting redistricting in Virginia and Missouri.
 
Virginia (11 House seats): Amendment 1. To get to the ballot, Amendment 1 first had to pass the General Assembly twice: the first time by Republicans who feared losing control of the redistricting process, the second time by a mix of Republicans (now in the minority) and a few Democrats willing to give up some of their own power. On November 3^rd, the reform will finally get it’s shot with Virginia voters. Here is the Princeton Gerrymandering Project’s overview of Amendment 1’s provisions. After careful analysis, we believe it is a positive step forward and, coupled with enabling legislation, would provide solid reform for the state of Virginia. Anti-gerrymandering vote: YES.
 
Missouri (8 House seats): Amendment 3, “Dirty Missouri.” In 2018, voters passed the “Clean Missouri” amendment. Clean Missouri established a state demographer to make the first draft of a redistricting maps, and placing quantitative limits on the partisan bias of that map. This year, legislators have put a new amendment on the ballot that contains small election reforms – and does away with the demographer and quantitative limits. Anti-gerrymandering vote: NO.
 
Judicial elections
 
Ohio (15 House seats): two state Supreme Court races. In Ohio, the state Supreme Court will hear any challenges under the new Fair Districts provisions of the state constitution. Ohio judicial elections are nominally nonpartisan, but the allegiance of the justices is generally known. It is currently composed of 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats.
 
This year, two of the Republican seats are up for election, leading to the possibility of a 4-3 split (in either direction). The Democratic challengers are Jennifer Brunner and John P. O’Donnell; Brunner has spoken specifically against gerrymandering. In the last 10 years, state Supreme Court races have run an average of a few points more Democratic than the top of the ticket – but with a wide range (standard deviation = 17 points). It is likely redistricting challenges will make their way to the OH Supreme Court and these elections will be crucial for curbing gerrymandering in the next cycle.

Breaking single-party control of legislatures
 
North Carolina (14 House seats), Kansas (4 seats), Nebraska (3) and Texas (39 seats). In all four of these states, single-party control over redistricting is on the cusp of being broken if Democrats make gains. “Cusp” means that the probability of it happening is 15-85%, based on our Redistricting Moneyball project.
 
In North Carolina, Democrats are within a few seats of taking control of the state House or state Senate, in part thanks to a redrawing of the map by the state Supreme Court in 2019. The new state Senate map has made elections much more competitive but there is still some partisan unfairness in the House map.
 
In Kansas, the Republican supermajority in the state House can be broken if Democrats gain a single seat. That would give Kansas Democrats a voice in redistricting. In Texas, Democrats need to gain 9 seats in the state House to end up with control – and a say in Congressional redistricting. (Thanks to the twists of Texas redistricting law, Democrats will likely have no say in the drawing of state legislative lines, no matter what.)
 
The same circumstances also exist in Nebraska. Nebraska is a harder state to analyze because candidates are nominally nonpartisan. The Princeton Gerrymandering Project, however, performed a deep evaluation and assessment. Our analysis suggests that Democrats are relatively likely – but not certain – to maintain enough seats to prevent Republicans from attaining a supermajority. The closest races in the Unicameral (that’s what their legislature is called) are in Senate Districts 3, 15, 31, 35, and 45. Of these the open seats – where money means the most – are in Districts 31 and 45.
 
Minnesota (7 House seats) and Connecticut (5 seats). In these two states, the tables are turned compared with North Carolina, Kansas, and Texas. They are potentially under single-party control by Democrats. Modest Republican gains in both states would cement bipartisanship in 2021. In Minnesota, Republicans currently control the state Senate. Our Redistricting Moneyball calculations suggest that the chamber is on a nearly-perfect knife edge. The top two districts in terms of voter power are SD-58 (greater Saint Paul area; D incumbent) and SD-14 (St. Cloud; R incumbent).
 
In Connecticut, Republicans have an excellent shot at breaking the Democratic supermajority and forcing a bipartisan map-drawing process.
 
In summary, the November election provides voters with powerful tools to shape the 2021 redistricting cycle. You can help by supporting candidates of your choice who share these goals. After the election we'll come back with a review of successes and defeats, and outline paths forward for fairer districting. Stay tuned!