Greetings and welcome to issue #28 of Valutus SustainabilityR.O.I., a Recap of things that caught our attention along with some Observations and Intelligence.
The Third Age of Tolkien’s Middle Earth was a time remarkably like our own. An all-encompassing battle loomed between the forces that would preserve the world and those that would twist and destroy it.
Galadriel, queen of the Elves of Lothlórien, recounts to Frodo in The Two Towers how, through three ages of the world she and the elves “have fought the long defeat.”
It would be easy, in this utterly unprecedented year 2020 for those of us in sustainability to utter such words as these with conviction, and easy also to forget that, in the end, Galadriel and the preservers won.
We, those of us fighting still to preserve the world, do not have the luxury of clear victory or defeat. To us is not given such distinctions, such blacks and whites, only work plugging holes, repairing ramparts, digging moats, and casting down the orc ladders where we can.
The good news, if such there be, is that we are all still here: working arm-in-arm, driving change, dragging the world into the greener, more resilient future it must have.
Thanks for everything you do to make the world a better place.
Daniel Aronson,
Founder, Valutus
The Value of Values
The Gjøa, first ship to navigate the Northwest Passage during the 1913 expedition led by
Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen. Source: Wikipedia.
Cartier. Frobisher. Drake. Cook. Amundsen. These intrepid sailors and many more sought the fabled Northwest Passage, searching for a quick route over the pole to Asia, India and East Africa.
But all things come to those who wait, they say, and, after a few hundred years of fossil-fuel-driven industrialization, voilà! the way appears.
Now that fossil fuel emissions have melted so much of the polar ice, they have made it possible not only to pass through our northernmost ocean but also to exploit caches of even more fossil fuels buried under the Arctic sea floor.
They have also given rise to environmental effects that impact the whole world. But who administers all this? In fact, who is responsible for managing the Arctic? We wondered that, too, and we have that story for you.
The Fall of Atlantis, François de Nomé (early 17th century). Photo by Monsù Desiderio.
Meanwhile, when today’s dauntless explorers sail on the roiling deep, the seas beneath their crafts are inches higher than in Drake’s day. All well and good for boats, but what about airports, causeways, subways and hospitals? When Atlantis sank, it didn’t just take the homes down with it, but roads, aqueducts, and public buildings, too. We face a similar fate and trillions in global infrastructure are at risk as well. We have some details on this for you in Atlantis: Revisited.
A natural well of subterranean natural gas at Chu Huo, Kenting, Taiwan. Source: Wikipedia
It is carbon emissions that have driven all this, and happily many utilities and governments have been adding renewables to their energy portfolios. Unfortunately, however, they are also stockpiling oil and gas at an alarming rate. Oil and gas?! Is it the so-called ‘carbon paradox’ or do they know something we don’t? We’ve looked into that for you as well.
Basalt studded with olivine, Big Island, Hawai’i.
Meanwhile, renewables alone can’t get the job done and we need to pull carbon from the atmosphere to reach the IPCC’s carbon goals. Can we sequester more CO2 from the atmosphere, just as nature does, in the oceans? Some say yes, and are experimenting with a technique that has, up to now, only been theoretical: speeding up the carbon cycle with weathered olivine. Read on for that story, too.
Photo by Michael Gaida / Pixabay
Observations focuses on the connections between many of the trends we’re seeing, including the importance of values and a future-orientation, even in the COVID era.
Finally, as we have hinted in recent issues, there is a book on the way, one that makes clear that values – the things that animate us, that represent our internal standards for doing good – create value. Financial and business value. Skeptics abound, but this is not about conventional wisdom. This is about doing more of what’s needed, doing it faster, and profiting from it. The book will be called The Value of Values, and there’s a sample inside. Check it out.
Weathering (before) the Storm
Olivine from the Naran-Kagan Valley, Kohistan District, North-West Frontier Province, Pakistan.
Photo by Robert M. Lavinsky. Source: Wikipedia
In the Adventure of the Dying Detective, Dr. Watson rushes to Sherlock Holmes’s bedside to find him sick, delirious, and raving with fever.
“Indeed,” Holmes babbles at one point, “I cannot think why the whole bed of the ocean is not one solid mass of oysters, so prolific the creatures seem. No doubt there are natural enemies which limit the increase of the creatures. You and I, Watson, we have done our part. Shall the world, then, be overrun by oysters? No, no; horrible!”[1]
Perhaps. Yet, what the great detective doesn’t say is that a bivalve takeover of the great deep, a vast increase in mollusks and other crustaceans, could be a part of the solution to global warming. As part of the carbon cycle,[2] CO2 is moved from the atmosphere to the depths, and is also sequestered in mollusk shells, crustacean exoskeletons, and coral structures, allowing the oceans to soak up and sequester, even more.[3]
Dr. John Watson and Sherlock Holmes, The Adventure of the Dying Detective.
By Walter Paget (1863-1935). Source: Wikipedia
These shell-forming creatures, along with crustaceans and corals, can soak up significant amounts of carbon – in the case of oysters, 12% of overall shell mass.[4]
It is an extraordinarily complex process to calculate the number of oysters the seabed can support[5] but, in order to make a significant impact – enough to be viable for carbon mitigation – some who are studying the problem[6] say mollusk farming on a massive scale would be needed.
Currently, mollusks make up just 0.2 gigatons (Gt[7]) – in terms of total mass – of all life on earth.[8] (For reference, human life represents one-tenth that much, 0.02 Gt, while all plant life comes to 2,250 times as much, a massive 450 Gt. For a fascinating representation of the relative weights of all life on Earth, click here for a chart.)
The ocean already absorbs quite a bit of CO2 from the atmosphere, and stores more than any other system – but there’s a downside: the extra CO2 acidifies the waters, which creates a number of issues including limiting the oceans’ own ability to take up carbon.[9],[10] (It’s also worth noting that ocean acidification can impact the oyster population itself. Thus, in helping to cure acidification, the oysters can actually create better conditions in which to thrive.[11])
In addition, while oysters indeed absorb carbon, “their real talent is filtering nitrogen out of the water column. Nitrogen is the greenhouse gas you don’t pay attention to -- it is nearly 300 times as potent as carbon dioxide, and according to the journal Nature, the second worst in terms of having already exceeded a maximum ‘planetary boundary.’ ”[12]
Oyster beds in Willapa Bay, Washington State, U.S.A. (1969).
Photo by Bob Williams, NOAA. Source Wikipedia
Another part of this method of dealing with atmospheric carbon is known as enhanced mineral weathering (EMW). This method is designed to prompt and enhance the carbon cycle that moves CO2 through plants and animals in the oceans, transforming it into carbon-sequestering calcium carbonate – limestone – that sinks to the ocean floor.[13]
The particular mineral to be ‘weathered’ is the pellucid green volcanic stone, olivine, whose particular makeup allows absorption and storage of carbon.
“All the CO2 that is produced by burning one liter of oil can be sequestered by less than one liter of olivine,”[14] and its abundance – it is the most prolific rock in the Earth’s mantle[15] – and low cost could make it ideal for ocean-sequestration efforts.
There is currently an experiment underway on the coast of a tropical Caribbean island using olivine to enhance absorption of CO2, and help deacidify the ocean, a method that has been considered for decades[16] but has not actually been tried outside of a lab until now.[17] An NGO called Project Vesta has taken this project on, grinding olivine into sand-sized grains and spreading it on a beach where wave action can further weather it and pull it into the depths.
Weathered Olivine Sand collected from Papakōlea Beach, Kaʻū district,
Hawaiʻi. Source: Wikipedia
Once there, the olivine begins a complex chemical process that pulls CO2 from the waters, alkalizes those waters, and renders the carbon into minerals that are taken up by growing shellfish. “The shellfish secretes Calcium Carbonate (CaCO3) to form its shell”[18] and, in the process, fixes the carbon permanently. More shellfish, more sequestration, hence the drive to carpet the seafloor with bivalves, corals and crustaceans.
The process looks like this:
Atmospheric CO2 dissolves in seawater becoming carbonic acid
Granular olivine is added by wave action and when it interacts with water molecules, alkalizes them and binds ambient CO2 in the new alkaline molecule (bicarbonate).
Shellfish such as oysters, corals, sea snails, and crustaceans take up the carbonate to build their shells and exoskeletons
Finally, those empty structures – each containing their load of sequestered carbon – turn to limestone on the seabed over geologic time
In other words, olivine can potentially both reduce ocean acidification and massively increase the amount of carbon safely sequestered in the oceans.
The science is not theoretical, relying as it does on the natural carbonate-silicate cycle that is taking place all the time, and which has been “the primary control over carbon dioxide levels over long time scales”[19] for eons. However, the olivine injection – designed to vastly speed up that natural process – has never been studied onsite on a large scale. The test currently underway, which includes an olivine seeded beach and a control beach on the next cove, is designed to gather real-world data.
A 2016 study using the Max Planck Institute’s Earth system model[20] examined this process and found it could have significant positive impact on planetary temperatures.
However, the actual long-term effects of enhanced mineral weathering have not been tested and have raised significant objections in some quarters. Specifically, there are concerns that “the addition of alkaline substances releases conjointly toxic heavy metals (e.g., cadmium, nickel, chromium) leading to further perturbations that would likely impact ocean biogeochemical cycling and marine ecosystem services,” note researchers from the Max Planck Institute.[21] “Thus, the CO2 mitigation potential of AOA comes at a price of an unprecedented ocean biogeochemistry perturbation with unknown ecological consequences.”
The same authors have a further objection: while olivine is incredibly abundant in the mantle, that layer lies some 20 – 30 miles (32 – 48 km) beneath the surface. Mining operations, currently fairly modest, would need to be ramped up dramatically.
Indeed, it has been calculated that, “offsetting even a third of global carbon emissions would require five gigatons of olivine granules.”[22]
“Oh oysters, come and walk with us…” John Tenniel’s Illustration of The Walrus and the Carpenter
from Through the Looking-Glass by Lewis Carrol (1871)
The feasibility of the concept depends on the rate of olivine dissolution, the sequestration capacity of the dominant reaction, and its CO2 footprint.”[23] Since the activities involved would certainly require significant energy, this points to the need for further study. To that end, Project Vesta is making a beginning, spreading the pale green stuff on a single cove on a single island for the purpose of study.
As Sherlock Holmes would say, when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains – however improbable – must be the answer.[24] As improbable as it seems, a massive bed of oysters and some pale green pebbles may be part of the answer to climate change. Stay tuned!
Arctic...tick...tick...
Who was first? Any of 4 Inuit assistants? Or Matthew Henson, left, in 1910 (photographer unknown),
Peary’s assistant, and certainly the first African American at the pole, or Robert E. Peary himself,
right, in a 1909 self-portrait, leader of the polar expedition. Source: Wikipedia
Who first crossed the Arctic and set foot on the pole? Was it Robert Peary? His assistant, Matthew Henson? Or should the credit go to their Innuit companions? To this day, there’s still some charming international disagreement about this matter: it’s one of those disputes that may never be fully resolved.
One thing about the Arctic is not in dispute, however: this summer portions of it rose to the highest temperatures ever recorded there, 100.4˚F (38˚C).[1]
It’s an unheard-of heat wave for an area where, in days past, the ocean could reliably be walked across most of the year and where winter temperatures frequently dropped below -50°C (-58°F).[2]
And, while “annual Arctic air temperature continues to increase at more than double the magnitude of the global mean air temperature increase,”[3] we nonetheless “wouldn’t expect the natural world to generate [such a heat wave] in anything less than 800,000 years or so,” climate scientist Andrew Ciavarella of the U.K. Met Office in Exeter, England, said July 14 in a news conference. It’s “effectively impossible without human influence.”[4]
Okay, so climate change is being directly blamed for the warming, that is hardly surprising. Indeed, the World Weather Attribution Network says such an event is 600 times more likely due to anthropomorphic climate change.[5]
Arctic methane concentrations 1980 – present. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) observatory, Point Barrow, Alaska. Source: Wikipedia
Attribution can also warn us to expect certain secondary and tertiary impacts – what we call submerged impacts – resulting from a heat wave.
For example, a warming tundra greatly increases release of the 1,400 gigatons of methane – an incredibly potent greenhouse gas – currently sequestered in the permafrost.[6]
One tertiary effect of this is an odd sort of land-based acne, made by methane bubbling to the surface and exploding into the atmosphere leaving a massive, circular sinkhole gaping open at the surface. Seventeen of these huge and mysterious holes have welled up since 2004,[7]and scientists have spotted thousands more bubbles apparently poised to burst at any time.[8]
A diesel fuel tank near Norilsk, Siberia, collapsed in May, 2020. More than 20,000 tons of diesel
fuel was dumped into the Ambarnaya River ecosystem and a state of emergency was declared.
Photo by the European Space Agency Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite. Source: Wikipedia
Another effect, the thawing of what was permanently frozen ground, caused the toppling of a huge Siberian fuel tank and the subsequent leak of an enormous plume – about 20,000 tons – of diesel fuel into the Ambarnaya river ecosystem,[9] a spill that could be seen by satellite (see image, above).
It is possible to drill down this cascade of impacts even further to a Siberian anthrax outbreak on the Yamal peninsula – well above the Arctic circle – four years ago. The likely cause is believed to be an infected reindeer carcass, frozen and buried in permafrost decades ago, that had thawed due to rising temperatures.[10]
Warming temps also herald a far greater likelihood of wildfires and, indeed, these were raging out of control in Siberia this year – including “peat fires [that] can burn longer than forest fires and release vast amounts of carbon into the atmosphere.”[11] Aside from direct damage to forests, animals, and property, such fires give rise to plumes of ‘black carbon’ particulate which has damaging downstream implications of its own.
So while climate change per se is a global phenomenon and its major impacts can be generally predicted, its Arctic local effects – an oil spill, an anthrax outbreak, a series of small craters, and so on – cannot.
The Arctic Circle (in blue: currently 66°33′48.3″ north latitude)
But are even these events truly ‘local’ in the jurisdictional sense?
The Arctic is not a single perfectly defined area, and definitions differ, but all agree it passes through several national jurisdictions: through Greenland, across Canada from Baffin Bay to the Beaufort Sea, slicing through Alaska, jumping the Bering Strait, and bisecting the vast expanse of Northern Russia from Vladivostok to Murmansk. It then whisks across the Norse countries, misses or encompasses Iceland depending on the map,[12],[13] and comes full circle to Greenland once more.
The same is true of the open oceans and of an entire continent: Antarctica.
In the largest sense, we all know this is a global issue and also in the largest sense, we know who is responsible: all of us.
Yet when a hurricane damages Florida, there’s a fairly clear understanding of the agencies, governments, insurance companies and individuals involved in the cleanup. U.S. federal, state, local agencies, local insurance purveyors, and local individuals and businesses. But how do we protect the Arctic, when that name merely represents an idea, a circle of latitude?
And who is responsible for dealing with a mess or disaster when the event is outside the 3-mile limit or crosses international boundaries? In the Arctic’s case, this is a highly complex question.
Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt opens the May 14, 2013 session of the Arctic Council at Kiruna,
Sweden. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (foreground, facing forward) was in attendance.
Source: U.S. State Department
Cooperation
On an ad hoc basis there has been significant – if non-binding – cooperation between the Arctic nations.
As Edward Alexander of the Gwich’in Council InternationalCircumpolar Wildland Fire project, noted last month, it’s “important to make sure that fire and smoke are not the only things crossing national borders. Our knowledge, cooperation, resources, respect for each other and our commitment to mutual aid should also be trans-boundary.”[14]
A body called the Arctic Council helps facilitate cooperation on many cross-border issues.[15] It is comprised of the 8 Arctic landowning nations – Russia, Canada, the United States, Sweden, Denmark (including Greenland and the Faroe Islands), Finland, Iceland, and Norway – along with the 40 indigenous communities representing about a million people, and several European and Asian states who ‘observe’ deliberations.[16] The Council forms working groups and disseminates information and policy briefs, but it is not clear how sharp its teeth are.
Some four million people live above the Arctic circle[17] and, while any given town or village may be within one nation or another, the communities they belong to may not. An estimated 80,000 - 100,000 Sámi, for example, range through Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Russia.[18] Because of this, and because Arctic inhabitants’ livelihoods generally center around local resources, their input is critical to the Arctic Council.
A Sámi family, Lapland, Norway (1900 / Colorized).
Given the massive challenges about to face the Arctic, and the thorny international questions that must be resolved, it would be well to have solid, binding cooperation and strong leadership. And here is the truly profound submerged impact of climate change: the warming globe has caused the polar ice to recede, thus opening the Arctic for commercial interests that are likely to increase the warming effect.
One example is the Northwest Passage – lodestone of explorers like Cartier and Hudson – which is now open far more often. This route has cut more than 1,000 nautical miles (1,852 kilometers) and up to 4 days off the passage from Atlantic to Pacific.[19] A time and distance – and therefore fuel – savings like this will attract a good deal of shipping, including tankers too large to get through the Panama canal.[20]
Icebreaker in the Gulf of Bothnia, just below the Arctic Circle at the northern tip of the Baltic Sea. Photo by Jaana Puschkeit / Pixabay
But who owns or controls the route? Canada firmly asserts that the passage is strictly their affair,[21] but other countries – including the United States, Denmark, Japan, Norway, the European Union and, especially, Russia – have expressed increasing interest in the region and are making differing claims in relation to international law. The U.S. Secretary of State recently called that claim “illegitimate” and tensions have risen.[22],[23]
As this makes clear, claims on the Northwest Passage are likely to be highly contested.
There are also military implications, with numerous nations – who are not necessarily friends – sending submarines[24] and warships[25] through slender and shallow shipping lanes. This is another reason the importance of open waters in the Arctic is clear even if who controls those waters is not.
Another issue is the contested control of the Voronovsky Ridge and other resource-rich areas. About a quarter of the world’s remaining untapped oil and gas reserves – some 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669-trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural-gas liquids[26] – lie below what was perpetual snow and ice but is now open water.
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) “gives coastal states a 200 nautical mile continental shelf claim that allows countries the right to exploit resources in the seabed and subsoil of their respective areas,” including fishing, oil and gas extraction, and mining.[27]
Yet even here things are murky. The treaty specifies rights from the end of the continental shelves – and there are at least three continents involved in the Arctic[28] and there’s a lot of lively discussion about where those shelves actually end. Heck, geographers can’t even agree on how many continents there are![29]
Exploratory oil well in Arctic Ocean waters, the Beaufort Sea off Alaska, 2005.
Photo by U.S. Minerals Management Service. Source: Wikipedia
Though the long-term future of oil and gas fuel is uncertain, there is already complex maneuvering for these resources that have lain untapped beneath the ocean floor for so long. The U.N. Shelf Commission – yes, there is a commission on establishing the outer limits of continental shelves – must approve applications for various nations’ claims, some of which have already been accepted.[30] Whether those rights will remain undisputed is an open question.
We may never settle which man first set foot on the North Pole, but we must quickly settle the issues facing the Arctic today. The decisions made in this region over the next few years will have a major impact on our race. We know who those decisions will affect – all of us – we just don’t know who will make them.
Utility Futility and the Carbon Paradox
Photo by Tookapic / Pixabay
Renewable Energy Growth Continues at a Blistering Pace, wrote Robert Rapier in Forbes this August.[1] If that is true, why is the level of atmospheric CO2 continuing to rise year over year? Weird, right?
Something odd is indeed happening across the energy sector for, even as governments across the world are calling for a phase-out of fossil fuels, with some having made dramatic cuts already, utilities are buying up coal and – in particular – natural gas stocks.
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, for example, just spent billions to purchase thousands of miles of LNG pipeline recently shut down or banned by the U.S. Supreme Court.[2] What’s up with that, Warren?
And although many utilities are adding in renewables – in fact it’s only 1 in 10 who are actually doing so, according to a new report[3] – most are in fact stocking up on carbon.
That’s weird, too, right?
One possible reason is that many electric utilities, when faced with the choice of either refitting coal plants to comply with new regulation, or moving to renewables and eschewing fossil fuel altogether, chose the former – and sunk a good deal of money and debt into doing so.
Lower renewables prices should suggest a transition that would save ratepayers money but would sink much of those refit costs, a choice many utilities don’t want to make.
Coal plant in Eemshaven, Netherlands.
“In some cases, it’s almost immaterial that renewable energy is so cheap these days, because these utilities are still wedded to old fossil fuel plants and to their traditional business model,” notes Los Angeles Times energy writer Sammy Roth.[4]
Interestingly, as Roth points out, electric companies can transition to renewables and still make money selling their product: the source is not the defining factor. For gas companies on the other hand, a move to renewables is an existential issue, a complete repudiation of their core business. Hence, many are fighting tooth and nail to preserve their viability.
As Leah Stokes, author of a book on climate policy in the U.S.[5] told Roth, the gas companies “need to figure out some alternative, and I don’t know what that’s going to be. But they’re in the fossil fuel business, and the fossil fuel business is going out of business.”
Perhaps, but not soon enough, given how fast climate change is now moving and how far its ramifications are reaching.
A wildfire burns in Portland, Oregon in 2018. Photo by Karsten Winegeart / Unsplash
It will be interesting to see if the brutal and terrifying climate events of the past few months begin to shift fossil fuel purveyors and bend public policy but, as recently as this month, a report surfaced showing public utilities globally remained heavily invested in coal and gas and many were not putting appreciable resources into renewable energy.[6]
The very title of the study – of 3,000 utilities worldwide – spells this dilemma out clearly: “A global analysis of the progress and failure of electric utilities to adapt their portfolios of power-generation assets to the energy transition.” (Italics ours.)
But… but we know renewables are growing fast, so how can this be? As the report notes, “Strikingly, 60% of the renewables-prioritizing utilities had not ceased concurrently expanding their fossil-fuel portfolio, compared to 15% reducing it. These findings point to electricity system inertia and the utility-driven risk of carbon lock-in and asset stranding.”[7]
In other words, it’s a classic case of climate policy paradox.[8] As noted above, companies have pre-invested in carbon technologies and facilities, and inertia strands them there even as (in some cases) they diversify into low-carbon tech.
Wind turbines in Rheineland-Pfalz, Germany. Photo by Mark König / Unsplash
As the incoming head of Siemens’ Energy noted recently, “I’m happy with every coal-fired power plant that is not built. But at the same time, the ones we [have already] built…”[9]
There is another pattern emerging, one that in the 20th century would not have surprised anyone but that now seems at odds with reality and goes far beyond mere inertia: carbon purveyors continue to legally, and illegally, financially support those in government who protect them. Rather than spending to transition, these companies were spending on gas stocks and carbon advocacy.
With governments essential to a true and potent check on carbon, utilities are going all out to sway local influencers, along with local and national leaders, away from carbon reforms.
Tom Perkins, writing in HuffPost, details payments by the ten largest utilities in the United States of more than $1 Billion over 5 years (2013 – 2017) in charitable donations to community influencers such as churches and political leaders, allegedly in return for testimony or shows of support at public meetings.[10]
Ohio nuclear utility First Energy donated heavily to the campaign of Ohio Speaker of the House
Larry Householder. The FBI has accused First Energy of paying $60 million in bribes to
Householder and others in order to bail out two of its troubled nuclear power plants.
Meanwhile the speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives was arrested in July for taking about $60 million in electric utility bribes designed (successfully, as it happens[11]) to ensure passage of a $1.3 billion bill to check environmental regulations and bail out a number of energy plants including several that run on coal.[12]
Florida’s electric utilities funneled nearly $30 million to political campaigns in 2015 to urge passage of Amendment 1 which would have crippled ‘net metering,’ a rule that allows homeowners with rooftop solar to sell power back into the grid.[13] The measure was defeated but there appears to be a push to reopen the question again this year.[14],[15]
Utilities in Australia have also been pumping millions into political parties for some years, fueling – according to some – Australia’s ‘gas-led recovery,’[16] while activists are up in arms in Ireland over what Friends of the Earth are calling a “plan to expand fossil fuel infrastructure and continue to subsidize fossil gas investment and usage.”[17]
It’s unclear if the acceleration of climate-change-related disasters will impact these initiatives and spur utilities to finally move away from carbon. Based on the past, however, it seems unlikely.
So, while it’s true that renewable are crushing it on the innovation and new development fronts, in the short term at least they will have all they can do to keep up with carbon.
Atlantis Revisited: Infrastructure Takes a Dive
Mont-Saint Michel and Causeway.
The massive eighth-century chateaux of Le Mont-Saint Michel is ensconced at the mouth of Couesnon river off the coast of Normandy, France, about a kilometer into the English Channel.
It’s a picturesque little cantonment and a cherished venue for some 3 million tourists annually. Aside from the charming town, and the Abbey with its famed stained-glass windows, Mont-Saint Michel has one feature that sets it apart from many similar towns in Europe: when the tide comes in, Mont-Saint Michel becomes an island.
This is unique – for the moment. But it won’t be for long.
Consider that a new bridge connecting the Cantonment with the mainland opened in 2014 and, the very next year, during what was considered an unusual ‘super-tide,’ said bridge was almost completely submerged. Since such tides may not be unusual at all going forward – for sea level rise (SLR) continues apace – access to the rock may soon require a boat or a wait until neap tide.
The last time CO2 was at the current atmospheric level of 400 parts-per-million (415 ppm currently), sea levels were more than 50 feet higher than today, according to two groups of scientists working independently, who found that CO2 levels have not been this high since the late Pliocene era some 3 million years ago, when “oceans were at least 15 meters (49 ft) deeper” than today.[1]
This is not to suggest sea levels will rise that steeply again. Most projections have the oceans lifted from between 2 and 6 feet this century,[2] though there is constant updating and debating as new findings come in and that range could turn out to be low.[3]
Still, as we recently wrote,[4] even at those levels the impacts will be global, massive, and devastating. Two to three hundred million people are expected to be refugees of flooding and inundation, as cities and coastlines around the globe are assailed by rising tides, and hinterlands are regularly flooded by rivers and storm surge.[5]
But it’s not just people’s homes and businesses that will be impacted. Other places may come to resemble Mont-Saint Michel, whose shiny new bridge may be all but useless in the next decade or two. Public infrastructure, as well as individual holdings, are going to take a beating and require support as the waters rise.
One possible response to this state of affairs – what we’ll call the Planet Krypton solution – is to do nothing and hope the climate experts are wrong. Although many people are working tirelessly to prevent this from being the route we take, far too many are content to travel this road.
Noah's Ark, etching by Jacques Callot. Collection of the National Gallery of Art.
Another approach – what we’ll call the Noah’s Ark solution (more correctly referred to as Managed Retreat)[6] – involves moving whole communities to higher ground in an orderly fashion, rather than the disorganized rout that will ensue if the Krypton model prevails.
Some individuals, towns, cities, and nations around the world have already begun this process or are in the planning stages, and the Ark approach will undoubtedly have a major role to play as the waters continue to encroach.
But there is a third option – what we’ll call the Dutch Dike or civil-engineering approach – used for generations by a state surrounded by encroaching seas. With a quarter of its land below mean sea level (MSL) and almost a third of it at risk of inundation and significant riverain flooding,[7] Holland has used dams, levees, seawalls, reservoirs, tidal canals, and stilted buildings to hold back damage from the waves. All of these, and any other solutions the modern mind can imagine, will be needed in the coming years to keep thousands of communities dry and safe.
Schools, railways, causeways, airports, highways, and more, will need structural changes to remain functional. Everyone has seen a flooded underpass but, as a Stanford University study released this month warned of the roads in Northern California, “the domino effect of flooding… is going to require a redesign of transportation systems as sea levels, storm surges and flooding worsen over the next thirty years. Otherwise, more extreme weather conditions could paralyze road transportation.”[8] Yikes.
But roads are only part of the transportation infrastructure under attack from SLR. For obvious reasons, many coastal cities place their airports near the waterfront, with runways often just a few meters above the waves. An analysis by Resource Watch found that, if mean sea levels (MSL) rose only one meter (3.28 ft) – well within the majority of predictions – around 80 airports globally would be flooded and useless.[9]
In fact, at just half that level, runways in Florida, California, Denmark, China, Iran, and more could be under water.[10]
Kansai International Airport, Osaka, Japan, was inundated during a typhoon in 2018.
Photo by Thorfinn Stainforth. Source: Wikimedia Commons (CC3.0)
Indeed, the runways at Kansai International Airport near Osaka, Japan, are receiving a multi-million-dollar refit complete with seawalls and raised runways, after the whole airport was covered by seawater during a typhoon.[11]
Even at current levels, the storm surge from Hurricane Sandy flooded the New York airports and much of the underground portion of the New York City subway system, severely restricting mobility throughout much of the city.[12]
This doesn’t just affect regular citizens. Emergency services planners in New York City have determined that, as the seas rise, the time it will take to reach those in need, already impacted by traffic during flood and storm, “is expected to be further aggravated during coastal flooding, (which) is set to increase in frequency and magnitude” due to SLR.[13]
Pumping operations on the A/C subway line at the Cranberry Street tunnel, Brooklyn, NY, after
Hurricane Sandy (2012). Photo by Leonard Wiggins, MTA, New York City Transit Authority.
Source: Wikipedia (CC2.0)
Indeed, during hurricane Hugo in 1989, in a hospital in Charleston, “engineers had to shut off the generator that fed the intensive care unit… and ran portable generators with extension cords to the ICU. When the floods receded, flounder, crabs and mud covered the concrete floor. The storm revealed how susceptible the hospital’s critical infrastructure is to rising water.”[14]
Unfortunately, the whole area is low lying and floods are now common. “During a tropical storm in 2017, personnel crisscrossed the campus in boats. [The hospital] even bought a military surplus high-water vehicle to make sure staff can move between hospitals.”[15] Hurricane, storm surge, or direct SLR threatens such systems in low-lying cities all around the world.
Military operations may be hampered, too. “Ten times a year,” noted National Geographic, “the Naval Station Norfolk floods. The entry road swamps. Connecting roads become impassable. Crossing from one side of the base to the other becomes impossible. Dockside, floodwaters overtop the concrete piers, shorting power hookups to the mighty ships that are docked in the world’s largest naval base… all it takes to cause such disarray these days is a full moon, which triggers exceptionally high tides.”[16]
That, of course, is under current conditions. As things progress, “Norfolk station will flood 280 times a year,” or about 77% of the time, noted the Union of Concerned Scientists in a 2016 report that detailed climate risks at 18 military installations around the United States.[17]
Homes can be moved, but a naval base? Runways of 1.5 miles? Airport towers? These assets may be so challenging to move they may require the Dutch Dike approach, where feasible. Runways could perhaps be walled. Indeed, Boston and San Francisco have erected seawalls in the last few years[18] or elevated the tarmac in some cases.
Water resources may also need to be rethought, as rising volumes of saltwater infiltrating traditionally fresh groundwater supplies could make many aquifers and drinking-water sources unusable without desalination. As the National Environmental Education Foundation reported this year, “the amount of saltwater infiltrating the (Biscayne) groundwater aquifer will increase, which can make the water too salty for human consumption.”[19]
Boxing Day Floods, 2015, Bingley, Yorkshire, England. Photo by Chris Gallagher / Unsplash
Some Solutions
The sheer number of projects needed to protect infrastructure world-wide is so vast it is difficult to comprehend. Infrastructure is built locally, designed to last over time based on the conditions that obtain at the time. The New York Subway system was built when sea levels were not known to be rising quickly and hurricanes ranging that far north were quite rare. Meanwhile, most at-risk airports were deliberately built as near sea level as possible and most water systems were not designed to cope with vast inland storm surge and riparian flooding.
As such, remedial plans are too many to be described here. But the question of who is responsible for all this, and how it will be paid for, is becoming top-of-mind for many planners.[20]
A 2019 study in Australia and New Zealand showed the costs to local communities at various levels of ocean rise. Just half a meter – a height almost every projection suggests is likely – will cost upwards of $2.7B New Zealand dollars to local communities moving to $5.1B at 1 m and $7.8B at 1.5 m.[21]
There have been some comprehensive studies on the cost of SLR preparation and mediation that encompass the global community,[22] but the uncertainty about the actual levels of rise, the potential arrest of global warming during the century, and the sheer number and scope of the infrastructure needed makes any assessment uncertain at best.
Some of the costs are – pardon the expression – submerged costs, in that they are secondary and tertiary costs that derive from other costs. For example, according to an analysis in The Balance, “flood-prone areas in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut (have) lost $6.7 billion in home values” already.[23]
There are other hidden risks, too. Two years ago, researchers performed a risk assessment for fiber optic cable in the U.S. and found that more than 4,000 miles (6,437 kilometers) of the stuff was at risk, especially around New York City, Seattle and Miami. As the author’s note, “while the standard buried fiber conduits are designed to be water-and-weather resistant, most of the deployed conduits are not designed to be under water permanently,”[24] as they would likely be under NOAA SLR projections.
Another less visible impact is that, as the Smithsonian’s Ocean Portal Team noted in 2018, “Sea level rise is not just a problem of water, it is also a problem of salt. Imagine if salt water flooded a farmer's field, or a coastal forest. Not only does the area have to survive flooding, but also a drenching in salt water that can kill plants and irreversibly alter soil chemistry. Saltwater flooding can mean death for these ecosystems. Already scientists have seen stands of “ghost forests” where once-healthy trees were killed by saltwater flooding, and farmers' fields are being converted to tidal marsh and salt flats.”[25]
Stepping back, a new study published in Nature this year found scientists from Australia, Germany and Holland reporting that global SLR was likely to cause more than $14 Trillion – with a T – in damage to infrastructure around the world.[26]
Hanging above all this is the impact of skittish insurance companies unwilling to cover climate-disaster-prone systems and structures. As we’ve reported in the past, this is only going to grow as all of the impacts become clear.[27]
The world does not yet have its arms around the reality that more and more places will be islands some or all of the time as this century ages. Yet, it is time to come to close grips with the reality of this phenomenon. “The historical approach to sea level rise was that the threat was going to happen at the end of the century,” noted one author of the Stanford study. “It’s not. It’s happening right now.”[28]
The folks who live on the charming cantonment of Mont-Saint Michel are accustomed to a home that's an island half the time. For the rest of us however, that’s a far less charming future.
Observations: More Than COVID on the Brain
Quite a year. Britain divorced Europe. A president was impeached too, after which George Floyd’s unjust death on a Minneapolis street corner sparked anger, and unrest, and, in many cases, renewed commitment to racial justice. There have been full-width, stop-the-presses headlines to spare this year.
Once the COVID train began rolling, however, that tremendous story eclipsed all the rest. The pandemic has driven the news cycle for months, fairly dominating all other news worldwide.
That’s not surprising, with 40 million infected and more than a million dead. The virus generated a global recession and impacted planetary politics. And – as we have written before – the pandemic exposed massive flaws and inequities in national and global systems like nothing since the Great Depression.
We’re now seeing tie-ins between a number of seemingly disparate issues – things we’ve always dealt with separately – that are connected in ways that grow more visible and unmistakable every day.
The pandemic has shined a spotlight on inequality, for example, and the vast disparity between those who toil for low wages in hospitals and grocery stores – who have come now to be seen as ‘essential workers’ during the pandemic[1] – and those who can sequester themselves at home and wait for the next Amazon delivery to be made, packed, shipped, and delivered by those same front-line workers (or the next beef shipment from a packing plant that’s also a super-spreader hub).[2]
Then there’s the economy, which won’t come roaring back ‘till we’ve licked COVID and can’t come roaring back in places that are flooded or on fire. Millions were one paycheck or illness away from insolvency, had to stand in food lines, or became homeless because the economy has never been designed with them in mind.
These connections are coming into focus for consumers, for voters, for those who have been impacted directly: in other words, for everyone. Stock image and visual trend guru Getty Images commissioned a survey of 10,000 consumers in 36 nations, seeking to discover just what, in the tumultuous landscape of news, was actually holding consumers’ attention around the world.
The research was to understand how best to connect with consumer at this volatile time, knowing that consumers shop based on these connections, differentiate candidates and vote based on them, and so on. They also combed proprietary data of more than a billion customer searches[3] of their image library.
Boiled down, the findings narrowed to four broad categories: sustainability, wellness, ‘realness,’ and technology.
The Getty research found that sustainability was “trending up… quite against expectations,”[4] and that consumers who are passionate about it “are likely to pay 10-15% more for products or services from companies that use sustainable practices; are aligned with their values; have transparent business practices; [and] care about the wellbeing, safety, and security of customers.”[5]
And there is another connection here that goes beyond current events. In Intelligence, below, we preview The Value of Values,[6] my forthcoming book which will elucidate in detail the impact of consumer behavior and organizational profitability when values are in play.
One example, as the Getty research makes clear, is that 92% of those surveyed “believe the way we treat our planet now will have a large impact on the future.” Hence their willingness to pay a little more for products they perceive to be aligned with that notion. This of course goes beyond current gains and losses, stock tickers, and tax assessments; instead, it focuses on a time when those surveyed will likely not be alive. As such, it is inherently about values, things larger than any one moment.
It’s no surprise, therefore, that candidates are attempting to claim the high ground on values. This US election is very much about the future – a future without COVID – and who is most trusted to get the country there. And a mutual set of values is one of the key ingredients for trust.
The Arthur Page society says there are three core dynamics of trust, and the first one they list is “mutuality… based upon shared values or interests.”[7] The environment, race relations, equality, and similar issues touch on both of these elements of mutuality: shared interests and values – including the health of people, planet, and society.
In an August 2020 poll, American voters were asked whom they trust on a variety of these issues. Climate change was the area that had the largest disparity of voter trust (and race relations was the second).[8]
The largest campaign sign we know of reflects this focus on the future and values. This 30 acre (121,000 square meter) sign[9] contains only 4 words: “Biden” and “Build Back Better.”
The sign, in Tama County, Iowa, also includes a picture of a barn and windmill on a sunny day. In other words, its visuals are positive and future-oriented, just like its text. Whether or not that was the sign-maker’s intention, this aligns with one of Getty’s conclusions based on their study: People are longing for a positive approach. The images brands use, they found, should “connect to aspirations about the future,” to help “overcome the helplessness many consumers feel.”[10]
The is also closely tied to the desire to bring our values to work. People spend a great deal of time and energy on their jobs: it’s only natural that they want that work to reflect their values and the future they want to create. In fact, my friend Bea Boccalandro is releasing her book, Do Good At Work, on exactly that subject.
All of these trends point to something important: The pandemic has dominated the news and our daily lives, but it has not pushed out other important issues. In fact, it has also pointed the way for us to connect with customers, with consumers, with voters if that is our intent.
Even while COVID-19 continues to dominate so many lives, we know we must deal with it and also prepare for what’s next. And we are.
Intelligence: Introduction to The Value of Values
Photo by Tookapic / Pixabay
Why write a book focused on value and values? And why should we be talking about the benefits that come from acting on values; isn’t doing good its own reward? Shouldn’t we leave financial benefit out of it? The short answer is: no.
Many companies freely acknowledge there are huge problems that need solving – from climate to democracy to social justice – yet these same companies frequently fail to take commensurately huge actions to solve them.
Why? Why do people piously say they want to leave a better world for their children, yet invest only a tiny fraction of the resources needed to create that world, perhaps even paying lobbyists to work against the very programs they claim to embrace?
One big reason: companies and executives believe they can’t afford to live their values, that such things hurt the bottom line rather than strengthen it.
This shows up in budgets too cramped for substantial investments in environmental or social changes. It’s also reflected in the clout given to sustainability and CSR leads.
In 2018 and again this year, my company surveyed the ‘leadership’ tabs of major corporations’ websites to see which positions were listed there. The results were not encouraging.
The CEO and CFO were listed, of course. The COO and head of legal were often there, as were marketing and the heads of regions or divisions. Sales, IT, R&D and corporate secretaries made the cut sometimes too, but the chief sustainability officers and VPs of CSR were only rarely included. Even companies publicly committed to sustainability did not consider this position central enough to the core of the business to be included on the masthead.
This is a problem. When companies don’t see being more sustainable or responsible for protecting democracy or engaging with the community or promoting equality (for women or LGBTQ individuals or racial ethnic minorities or others) as part of the core activities that make the business successful, they chronically under-resource those individuals and departments.
Occasionally someone says this very explicitly, simply stating as a fact that giving values significant weight in decisions just isn’t done. As one buyer put it, “We’re as green a company as there is out there. But if I have to spend even one more penny for this [greener product], I’m not going for it.”[1]
To get a sense of how unimportant values are perceived to be, imagine replacing the “green” language with something else. For example, picture an executive saying, “we’re as customer focused a company as there is out there but, if I have to spend even one more penny for something to please customers, I’m not going for it.”
What would be made of a company that said such a thing? Now, imagine the same attitude, but for innovation, efficiency, or technology. They're all unimaginable, because it’s intuitively clear that pleasing customers and being innovative are critical to the core of the business, and therefore it’s clearly worthwhile to spend money on them. We need to make it just as clear that this is also true for values.
That’s a big part of why I decided to write a book. By talking about The Value of Values, I wanted to demonstrate exactly why and how values must be embraced as a key driver of business, not some side issue.
They must be part of strategy, of operations, of planning for the future, recruitment, and most other activities. Why? Because once we understand where to look, how to see and recognize the business benefits acting on values provides, we see that acting on values is at the very core of the business’s success.
As I’ve laid out in the book, those benefits are divided into five broad categories, represented by the acronym CORE, plus one additional area of benefit, Leadership. We refer to the five as “CORE Leadership.”
Customers
Operations
Risk
Employees
Leadership
The book examines each of these in turn, uncovering sources of business value for each. Below are a few examples of CORE Leadership benefits.
Customers:
One company I helped wanted to the effect of values on customer choice. We did this by showing customers and prospects competing, unnamed offerings. First, we showed customers the current competitive offerings, to get a baseline. About half answered that they would “Probably” or “Definitely” choose the client’s offering.
But when just one sentence was added about a values-based part of the offering, customer choices changed significantly. The portion who would “Probably” or “Definitely” choose to buy from the client went up by about 25%. For context, that’s more than five times as fast as the average yearly sales growth for the Fortune 500.[2]
Operations:
Operations includes things like efficiency, innovation, quality, speed, etc. Here, there are two benefits from acting on values.
First, it helps people think differently, and second, it engages their minds, their beliefs, and their purpose in ways that regular daily operations often don’t. When a company wants to do something better for the environment, then its people begin to use that lens. This leads to people uncovering valuable opportunities and having more innovative ideas.
One instance of uncovering an opportunity took place at a company I worked with that was considering a project that would improve their factory’s sustainability. They hadn’t made it a priority, because it would require an investment – not a large investment, but enough to keep this opportunity on the back burner.
When I helped them dig into it more deeply, however, they discovered that, beyond simply improving sustainability, the project would also unlock major cost savings. To their shock, the savings was about a hundredtimes more than the company had first calculated. In other words, there had been an enormous potential for savings that they hadn’t really understood.
For similar reasons, acting on values spurs innovation. Because using a different lens encourages people to think differently, that naturally leads to innovative ideas. In fact, looking across many different companies and innovation rankings, it is possible to demonstrate this and to show quantitatively that environmental leadership increases innovation.
This is key for individual companies, not just markets and economies. Values help companies do important things such as:
Preparing for operational risks: Apparel companies are seeing demand shifts caused by changes in the climate – warmer winters, less predictable weather patterns, etc. These changes in demand are reducing predictability in seasons and in transportation, exacerbating US retail fashion's $50B problem of dead inventory and threatening to increase the 40% of inventory that's currently sold at markdown, further cutting into margins
Lowering legal risks: With the advent of climate forensics and the increasing possibility of being sued by investors for hiding climate risks, negligence in addressing climate issues could become the basis for legal liability, the way negligence in addressing other foreseeable risks already is[3]
Employees:
For decades, essentially no fast-food chains had programs to help their employees get a college degree. With high turnover at such restaurants, it may simply not have seemed like a good investment – companies may have been afraid the employees would leave before their additional education created benefits for the organization.
However, Starbucks decided to do something different and made it easier for company employees to get their degree, including paying for it. As of 2020, 16,000 Starbucks employees are taking advantage of this program.[4] Given that employees need not pay for the classes, that’s a significant investment for Starbucks. They did this even though they know most employees won’t spend their careers at Starbucks – and there’s no requirement in the program to stay at the company after graduation.
But what if we looked at the situation differently, focusing on two lenses: the desire of Starbucks to live their values of doing right by their employees, and the lens of human capital? Ifyou were a barista or assistant manager, and understood that the company was investing in your future with no strings attached, what would you feel? Well, you might feel valued, and also trusted. Wouldn’t you want to work for a company where you felt both valued and trusted?
In fact, nearly a fifth of all Starbucks applicants now cite the college program as one of their main motivations for joining the company, helping Starbucks attract top people. Participants also stay at Starbucks 50 percent longer, and are promoted at three times the rate of U.S. retail employees who don’t use the program, which helps Starbucks keep those valuable employees. [5]
Leadership:
The benefits of acting on values are not limited to companies. Acting on your values also helps you to think differently, as we’ve seen, and it makes you a better leader. For example, similarities such as shared values can increase the willingness of others to trust you[6] and that helps create higher-performing teams.
There’s much more in the book! It will be completed in about a month. Get in touch to learn more, if you’re interested in reviewing.
Thanks for reading. I hope you found this worth your time.
If not, please accept my apology. Just click the unsubscribe link... or, hang in there and we’ll work to make the next issue worth your while!
References: Weathering [1] His Last Bow, A. Conan Doyle, The Adventure of the Dying Detective (1917)
[10] Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, Vol.#492, Linking the Biological Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Oysters to Change in Ecosystem Services: A Review,July 2017
[11] Oregon State University, Study: Ocean Acidification Killing Oysters by Inhibiting Shell Formation, June 2013 [12] The Atlantic, The Coming Green Wave: Ocean Farming to Fight Climate Change, Nov 2011 [13] NASA Earth Observatory, The Slow Carbon Cycle, June 2011
[15] Geology Page, Measuring the Strength of Olivine, the Most Abundant Mineral in the Earth’s Mantle, September 2017
[16 Seifritz, W. CO2 disposal by means of silicates. Nature 345, 486 (1990)
[17] Columbia University Earth Institute, Carbon Sequestration [18] The Fish Site, Mussels, Carbon Sequestration Potential of Shellfish, Oct 2004 [19] NASA Earth Observatory, The Slow Carbon Cycle, June 2011 [20] Geophysical Research Letters #43, González M., Ilyina, T., Impacts of Artificial Ocean Alkalinization on the Carbon Cycle and Climate in Earth System Simulations, June 2016 [21] Ibid [22] Natural Resources Defense Council, onEarth Blog, Brian Palmer, Olivine: Carbon Eater?March 2017
[23] International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Coastal spreading of olivine to control atmospheric CO2 concentrations: A critical analysis of viability, December 2009
[24] Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, The Sign of the Four, Doubleday (1890)
References: Arctic [1]Science News, Climate Change Made Siberia’s Heat Wave at Least 600 Times More Likely, July 15, 2020 [2]Wikipedia, Polar Climate, Arctic
[3] NOAA Arctic Program, Arctic Report Card: Update for 2019
[4] Science News for Students, Siberian Heat Wave that Caused an Oil Spill Made More Likely by Climate Change, Aug. 13, 2020 [5] Science News, Climate Change Made Siberia’s Heat Wave at Least 600 Times More Likely, July 15, 2020 [6] National Snow and Ice Data Center, Methane and Frozen Ground, 2020
[7] National Geographic, Colossal Crater Found in Siberia. What Made it?Sept. 23, 2020
[8] ZME Science, Thousands of Methane-Filled Bubbles are Waiting to Explode in Siberia, July 2017 [9] Yahoo News, Putin Declares State of Emergency Over Siberian Fuel Spill, June 4, 2020 [10] BBC News, Russia Anthrax Outbreak Affects Dozens in North Siberia, August 2016 [11] NASA Earth Observatory, Another Intense Summer of Fires in Siberia, August 2020
[12] By some definitions, the Arctic Circle is that area (defined in red on the map) where the temperature remains below mean 10 °C (50 °F). In this scenario, the Arctic encompasses more area including Iceland.
[13] Ibid [14] Arctic Council News, As Millions of Acres Burn in the Arctic, Creating a Common Language Around Wildfire Management is Key, Sept 7, 2020
[20] International Journal of e-Navigation and Maritime Economy, Vol. 1, An Economic Analysis of Container Shipping Through Canadian Northwest Passage, December 2014
[21] Canadian Library of Parliament, Canadian Arctic Sovereignty,Jan 26, 2006
[22] The Guardian, Mike Pompeo Rejects Canada’s Claims to the Northwest Passage as ‘Illegitimate,’May 2019
[23]Quartz, The U.S. is Picking a Fight with Canada Over a Thawing Arctic Shipping Route, June 2019
[24] The Nauticapedia, A List of the Known Underwater Transits of the Canadian Northwest Passage 1958 – 2009, 1990 (last updated 2017)
[25] Quartz, The U.S. is Picking a Fight with Canada Over a Thawing Arctic Shipping Routem, June 2019 [26] U.S. Geological Survey, Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle, 2008 [27] The Barents Observer, Canada Files Submission to Establish Continental Shelf Outer Limits in Arctic Ocean, May 2019
[28] United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Preamble, Part VI, Article76, Definition of the Continental Shelf, 1982
[29] Wikipedia: Continents, Number [30] The Barents Observer, Canada Files Submission to Establish Continental Shelf Outer Limits in Arctic Ocean, May 2019
References: Utilities [1] Forbes (Contributor/Robert Rapier), Renewable Energy Grows at a Blistering Pace, August 2 2020 [2] Los Angeles Times, Why is Warren Buffet, the ‘Oracle of Omaha,’ Betting on a Future with Fossil Fuels? July 9 2020 [3] Nature Energy, A Global Analysis of the Progress and Failure of Electric Utilities to Adapt Their Portfolios of Power Generation Assets to the Energy Transition, Aug 31, 2020 [4] Los Angeles Times, How Far Will Utilities Go to Protect Their Fossil Fuel Investments? July 30, 2020 [5] Stokes, Leah Cardamore, Short Circuiting Policy: Interest Groups and the Battle Over Clean Energy and Climate Policy in the American States, Oxford University Press, 2020 [6] Nature Energy, A Global Analysis of the Progress and Failure of Electric Utilities to Adapt Their Portfolios of Power Generation Assets to the Energy Transition, Aug 31, 2020 [7] Ibid [8] Wikipedia, Carbon Lock-in: Introduction [9] The Financial Times, Siemens Energy Chief Defends Reliance on Fossil Fuel Contracts, Aug 31, 2020 [10] HuffPost, How Utility Companies Use Charitable Giving to Influence Policy, July 6, 2020
[11] Note: efforts to repeal the bill are currently underway: WOSU, Ohio Legislature Misses Key Deadline for Nuclear Bailout Repeal, Oct. 2, 2020
[12] Energy and Policy, First Energy Scandal is Latest Example of Utility Corruption, Deceit, July 23, 2020
[13] The Miami Herald, Florida Utilities Spend Millions to Make the Case to Limit Rooftop Solar, Nov 1, 2016
[14] Clean Energy, If it Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix it: Protect Florida’s Rooftop Solar Net Metering Policy, Sept 11, 2020
[15] Electrek, Florida Utilities Want to Gut Solar: Here’s Why, Sept 16, 2020
[16] The Guardian, Gas Industry Donates Millions to Australian Political Parties, Sept 15, 2020
[17] The Irish Times, Public Bodies Locking Ireland into Fossil Fuel Use, Friends of Earth Say, Sept 8, 2020
References: Atlantis [1] Phys.org, Dire Future Etched in the Past: CO2 at 3-Million Year-Old Levels, April 2019
[2] NOAA Climate, Climate Change: Global Sea Level, 2019
[8] Ajot, Stanford Says Northern California Highways Face Sea Level Rise Threat, Sept 4, 2020
[9] Resource Watch, Runways Underwater: Maps Show Where Rising Seas Threaten 80 Airports Around the World, Feb 5, 2020 [10] Ibid [11]The Straits Times, Osaka's Sinking Kansai Airport to Raise Runway After Last Year's Flooding by Typhoon Jebi,Feb 1, 2019
[12] Mass Transit, Impact of Hurricane Sandy, Dec 2012
[13] Princeton University Publications, Yin, et al, Evaluating the Cascading Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding on Emergency Response Spatial Accessibility in Lower Manhattan, New York City, 2020
[14] Charleston Post and Courier, Plagued by Some of Charleston’s Worst Flooding, Hospitals in Medical District Plan to Stay, Sept 25, 2020
[16] National Geographic, Who’s Still Fighting Climate Change? The U.S. Military, Feb 2017
[17] Union of Concerned Scientists, The U.S. Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas, July 2016 [18] Resource Watch, Runways Underwater: Maps Show Where Rising Seas Threaten 80 Airports Around the World, Feb 5, 2020 [19] NEEF USA, Groundwater and the Rising Seas, 2020 [20] Science Daily, Sea Level Rise Could Reshape the United States, Trigger Migration Inland, Jan 22, 2020 [21] Institute of Public Works Engineering Australasia, Sea Level Rise Could Sink $14 Billion of Local Government Infrastructure, Feb 20, 2019
[22] Springer Link Open Access, The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-Level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment, Jan 2015
[23] The Balance, Rising Sea Level Effects, Projections, and Solutions, April 8, 2020
[24] University of Oregon, Lights Out: Climate Change Risk to Internet Infrastructure, 2018
[25] Smithsonian ‘Ocean: Find Your Blue, Sea Level Rise, April 2018
[26] Nature: Scientific Reports, Projections of Global-Scale Extreme Sea Levels and Resulting Episodic Coastal Flooding Over the 21st Century, July 20, 2020
[1] Brookings, Essential but Undervalued: Millions of Health Care Workers Aren’t Getting the Pay or Respect they Deserve in the COVID-19 pandemic, May 29, 2020
[2] The BMJ, Meat Plants – a New Front Line in the Covid-19 Pandemic, July 9, 2020 [3] PR Newswire, Landmark Research from Getty Images Reveals People Care Most About Wellness of Family, Self and the Earth, but Shows Gap Between Intention and Action, Feb. 25, 2020
[4] The Drum, Climate Crisis Still Top Concern for Consumers Despite Pandemic, Oct. 7, 2020
[5] Ibid [6] Available for sale Spring, 2021 [7] The other two elements in Page’s model are: (1) Balance of Power – where risks and opportunities are shared by parties, and (2) Trust Safeguards – that limit vulnerability in the context of power imbalances. While there are different models of trust, shared values is a common thread. [8] Data for Progress, Voters Trust Biden on Climate Change, Aug. 27, 2020
[10] PR Newswire, New Getty Images Research Shows That Climate and Sustainability Still Top Concern Despite COVID-19 Pandemic,Oct 7, 2020
References: Intelligence [1] “Interface’s Evergreen™ Services Agreement” (case study). Harvard Business School, 2003 [2] https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-sales-growth [3] https://cyber.harvard.edu/bridge/LawEconomics/neg-liab.htm [4] https://stories.starbucks.com/stories/2020/starbucks-partners-go-back-to-school-make-an-impact-in-their-communities/ [5] “5 Years Since Starbucks Offered to Help Baristas Attend College, How Many Have Graduated?” EdSurge 2019 [6] https://hbr.org/2006/09/the-decision-to-trust
