We have been watching theRed Mirage in action, according to Mike Allen from Axios.
On election night, Pennsylvania, Georgia and other states gave Donald Trump substantial leads. But once all the votes started to be counted, including early and mail-in votes which were projected to lean Democratic, the "red" lead disappeared and Joe Biden began to emerge as the likely victor.
Thanks to Hawkfish, we were warned of the Red Mirage in late August.
For example: Donald Trump had a 675,000-vote lead in Pennsylvania Thursday morning, then all day long, as mail-in votes were counted, Trump’s lead shrank dramatically. Just 18,000 votes separated them by Friday morning, with 97% of votes reported, according to the AP.
We've also watched the Red Mirage in Georgia. Trump had a commanding 372,000-vote lead on election night in Georgia, but by Friday morning, Biden had overtaken Trump by about 900 votes on the strength of mail-in ballots, with 99% of votes reported, according to the AP.
How Trump Drained Resources in Florida.
The Trump campaign spent 50% more on their campaign in Florida than they did in Pennsylvania. It's a fact that may help explain why the Keystone State is slipping away from Trump as votes are counted and the state's 20 electoral votes move closer to Biden.
Mike Bloomberg spent $100 million to support Joe Biden's efforts in Florida, which helped free up Democratic resources elsewhere to rebuild the blue wall and help Joe Biden and Kamala Harris win this election.
It's part of a strategy that is playing out exactly as we've said it would over the last few months.
Starting on Sept. 13, here's what we said:
"Voting starts on Sept. 24 in Florida, so the need to inject real capital in that state quickly is an urgent need. Mike Bloomberg believes that by investing in Florida, it will allow campaign resources and other Democratic resources to be used in other states, in particular the state of Pennsylvania." -- Washington Post (Sept. 13)
"Mike Bloomberg is committed to helping defeat Trump, and that is going to happen in the battleground states. Mike’s substantial investment in Florida, in addition to his contributions to the DNC and to voter protection and restoration efforts this cycle, will mean Democrats and the Biden campaign can invest even more heavily in other key states like Pennsylvania, which will be critical to a Biden victory." -- NBC News / NPR (Sept. 13)
“Mike Bloomberg has gotten into Florida because he wants to avoid the national nightmare [‘the Red Mirage’] that will occur after the election as Trump tries to rip apart the valid voting by millions of Americans in vote by mail that Trump seems to think are illegitimate,” Bloomberg adviser Kevin Sheekey said. -- CNN Amanpour (Sept. 30)
"What Mike did is basically say, ‘I’m going to force the Trump campaign to defend Florida, I’m going to force them to spend more heavily in a state he didn’t expect to have to,’ " Kevin Sheekey said. “And that’s going to make the Biden campaign much more competitive in those other states.” -- Tampa Bay Times (Oct. 29)
“Florida is a really tough state, we feel optimistic but it’s clearly a state that’s tough to call,” Bloomberg Senior Adviser Kevin Sheekey emphasized. “I think we feel optimistic because we know what we have done and what we are doing, but the goal was to get into Florida and win it. It was a two-part goal. Make Trump fight for a state that he was taking for granted that would draw resources from blue wall states, allow Joe to become more competitive in those states and make him fight like hell for this state. So that’s exactly what we did.” -- Politico (Nov. 2)
“That was our goal: Make Trump fight for a state he was taking for granted and draw resources from blue-wall states, and allow Joe [Biden] to become more competitive in those states,” said Kevin Sheekey, an adviser to Bloomberg. “To make him fight like hell in this state.” -- Miami Herald (Nov. 3)
“It’s virtually impossible for Trump to win the presidency without Florida, and that is why Mike Bloomberg is investing $100 million into the race there — to turn it into a state Trump and Republicans have to work hard to win, and to free up Democratic resources to other states like Pennsylvania that can solidify a Biden victory,” said Kevin Sheekey, Bloomberg senior political adviser. “Florida is a key state for winning the presidency — and where we hope Donald Trump makes his residency permanent after he loses.”-- Politico (Oct. 30)
He can’t handle the truth: Trump fears the election will be called today, perhaps first by Fox News, and that his effort to get the Supreme Court to intervene will fail, officials tell Axios.
Trump can demand recounts and court cases — so be patient and allow the political and legal process to play out, as designed.
“At the current growth rate, we expect the total number of currently hospitalized patients to hit 60,000 — a breaking point in past surges — by Nov. 15,” one policy analyst wrote. At that point, “restrictions will gradually intensify.”
The extension means the U.K. will pay workers’ wages for 13 months, under emergency measures originally intended to last just three months during the first peak of the pandemic in the spring.
New York reported the most new cases since early May as Gov. Andrew Cuomo raised “caution flags” about new hot spots in the west of the state and the Finger Lakes.
Of more than 161,000 tests conducted statewide on Wednesday, 1.86%, or 2,997 were positive
The U.S. recorded more than 120,000 new cases in a single day for the first time on Thursday as the pandemic continues unchecked across the country.
Around the world, similar spikesare causing new alarm. France reported more than 40,000 new cases Wednesday and the UK 25,200 — the countries' highest-ever case counts.
Conversely, in Asia, where the virus has been largely contained, Hong Kong and Singapore each had one new case on Wednesday.
This chart shows that the U.S. has far and away more daily cases, and the infection rate per 100,000 people remains high at 27, well above that of Canada, Mexico and Brazil. The U.K. is at 33.7, Spain at 45.2 and France at 65.7 new cases per 100,000 people.
The irony, of course, is that the stylish hotel lounge cannot properly celebrate its victory until at least Dec. 1 when lockdown ends.
New #MeanTweets is Out.
Jimmy Kimmel just debuted an all-new, all-politics edition of #MeanTweets featuring Mike Bloomberg along with Andrew Yang, Anthony Scaramucci, Nancy Pelosi, Cory Booker, John Kerry, Al Franken, John Kasich, Adam Schiff and Pete Buttigieg.
Mike reads a tweet: “Mike Bloomberg saying he’s running for president is like finding out Nickelback is playing the Super Bowl halftime show." Then he adds, "I like Nickelback.”
Weekend Streaming Guide.
It's a good moment to look back on the 2000 U.S. election, which was drawn out for five weeks:
Unprecedented This 47-minute documentary examines the Florida recount, from Katherine Harris to hanging chads and all the way to the December 2000 Supreme Court decision that gave George W. Bush the presidency over Al Gore.
537 votes The HBO piece takes a different angle, starting in Nov. 1999 when the international custody battle over 6-year-old Elián González triggered a political mess in Miami-Dade County — and shows how the saga may have swayed the election.
And as the Trump presidency (probably) comes to an end, watch these classics with striking parallels to today:
Back to the Future Part II (1989) Michael J. Fox advances to the year 2015 and finds that Biff the bully has become a businessman who owns a 27-story casino and uses his money to influence politics, turning their neighborhood into a town rife with crime. Lea Thompson plays his wife, covered in layers of garish clothes and makeup.
The Wiz (1978) Richard Pryor plays a Trump-like “great and powerful Oz" in this cult classic, screaming instructions at Dorothy (played by Diana Ross) and his followers as they dance around the the World Trade Center plaza, all colored emerald green. “I’ve thought it over and green is dead,” Pryor the dictator shouts over a giant loud-speaker. “I changed my mind, the color is red!” And with that, the entire crowd wears red. Oz is then discovered cowering in a corner of the World Trade Center barking orders through a microphone, and not appearing as great and powerful he'd made everyone believe.
Best of Late Night.
More good lines from election night:
“Indiana has been called for Donald Trump. Well, of course — it was either vote for him or take Mike Pence back. That’s an easy call.”
-- Stephen Colbert
“And in Kentucky, Mitch McConnell has defeated Democrat Amy McGrath. So it appears, unlike his hands, Mitch McConnell’s seat will not be turning blue.” -- Trevor Noah
“We can also officially guesstimate that the Massachu-chu Senate race has been called for Democratic Senator Ed Markey. Senator Markey is the incumbent and the co-author of The New Green Deal, so it’s fitting that Massachusetts has decided to reuse him.”
-- Stephen Colbert
“Some Dust Bowl results have blown in. The Oklahoma Senate race has been called for G.O.P. incumbent and global warming denier Jim Inhoff. Inhoff was heavily favored to win so he wasn’t sweating the outcome. He was sweating because for some reason every year it’s warmer than the previous one.”
-- Stephen Colbert
“Of course in New Hampshire in 2020, ‘Live Free or Die’ isn’t just the state’s official motto, it was the two choices on the ballot.”
-- Stephen Colbert
Thank you for reading!
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