Finally, we come to the new National Security Advisor,
Jake Sullivan.
Sullivan is a super-smart foreign policy generalist who understands the interlinkages of trade and populations and security that bind the world together and threaten to spin it apart. He has also apparently achieved the unthinkable: he is so painfully affable that everyone in DC likes him. He reminds me a lot of…me.
Which is why I'm pretty certain he will fail.
Somewhat contrary to the title, America's National Security Advisor does a lot more than merely advise the president on foreign policy. He (or she) also has to ride herd on the government's sprawling foreign policy apparatus. It is ultimately a bureaucratic job akin to riding an angry, rabid octopus.
The quintessential NSA in recent years was John Bolton. Bolton had decades of experience taking charge of this or that aspect of the foreign policy establishment and
forcing them to do things his way to achieve his president's goals. Most of Washington despised him, not because of a lack of competence, but instead because of his I-hate-everyone-because-everyone-is-a-moron personality. Bolton was (in)famous for intimidating and outmaneuvering his way through the entire bureaucracy. In contrast, Sullivan is a congenial brainiac. The very knowledge base that leads Biden to rely upon Sullivan's thinking is guaranteed to piss off career civil servants convinced that they know more about topics x, y or z. Bottom line? People like Sullivan (and myself) – deep-thinking, purposefully-rounded
generalists – tend to do very badly in government.
And even if Sullivan proves me wrong and is indeed the right person for the job, his first task has an Augean Stables stench about it. He'll need to
re-create America's foreign policy establishment.
Under W, Obama, and Trump the foreign policy apparatus has been badly mismanaged, irresponsibly re-tasked, malignly ignored, intentionally belittled and intellectually castrated. The past 20 years have convinced smart, ambitious, principled people that government work isn't for them. Sullivan doesn't have much to draw upon
except the clock-punching hangers-on who are holding out for a pension. He'll need to rebuild many bureaus from scratch and it isn't clear he has the expertise, mindset or rolodex to even begin. The State Department in particular needs a demo crew more than a superwonk. Sullivan is going to engage in such holistic institutional reconstruction
while serving as America's foreign policy guru? I think not.
I'd be thrilled if Sullivan proves me wrong and instead shines. I'd be thrilled if people like myself could actually be part of the solution. But I'd also be shocked.
Now let's set the stage for the Biden administration's opening environment at home.
The coronavirus crisis is epically raging. Daily deaths have exceeded the number of Americans' killed on September 11, 2001 for a few weeks straight. Total deaths have now exceeded total American deaths in the four years of America's most deadly war, World War II.
But the numbers are turning. The post-Christmas surge has peaked and new hospitalizations are ebbing. Add in some Biden-related actions such as mask mandates on federal properties, and we should see a very rapid drop off in infections in the month to come. The US already has two vaccines on the market, with another two likely to join them around mid-February, one of which – the Johnson & Johnson formula – can be stored in a normal refrigerator and only requires a single shot. Even better, J&J expects to have 100 million doses distributed by April 1.
Epidemiologically speaking, that puts us in a race between people relaxing their guard as the post-Christmas surge fades, and vaccines getting into arms. If the vaccines win the race, roughly 100,000 fewer people will die and it will appear to the general public that all defeating the vaccine required was Biden in the White House. Before you root for that
not to happen, keep in mind the alternate interpretation of Biden failure requires at least another 100,000 deaths.
My point here is not simply that Biden enjoys fortuitous timing, but that coronavirus in general has presented the new president with a very favorable starting conditions. While everyone has different opinions on the specifics, everyone knows we need a new stimulus package to battle the virus and its economic effects. Biden's singular known skill is that he's a Senate negotiator. This battle plays directly to his strengths,
and he'll reap the political gains for getting it done.
Between the vaccine rollout, the COVID mitigation package, and some very basic anti-virus measures (that honestly Trump should have done last March), Biden has the opportunity to shine. He has the opportunity to build domestic unity. He has the opportunity to look competent. He has the opportunity to look powerful.
And he has the opportunity to look gracious.
These are all
very easy carries that will reap mounds of political capital he can use on other projects. But if Biden cannot manage
this we will know that he really is incapable, and that the next four years will be just as disconnected as the previous four.
Best of luck to him, because there are already some hefty issues clamoring for presidential attention.
Coming soon:
Life After Trump, Part VI: The Crisis List