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Analysis: Can Gideon Saar topple Bibi?

LFI News and Campaigns: Changing the debate about Israel in UK trade unions
This Week: Abbas announces Palestinians will vote in new elections this year; Labour calls for new approach to Iran and tougher nuclear deal; PA expects first vaccine shipment as Israel aims for 250,000 jabs a day
Essential Reading: Israel’s coming election may be decided on the religious right; Disgruntled Arab candidates search for new "political homes"; The debate on Israel-Palestine has been exported, but the conflict will be solved at home; Long sidelined, Arab Israeli entrepreneurs looking to join tech boom with Emirati backing
Essential Viewing: America, the Middle East, and the World: A conversation with Tony Blair
Tweet of the Week: Marking Martin Luther King Day
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Applications close on 1 February and you can find more details here 
Analysis

Can Gideon Saar topple Bibi?
Gideon Saar, a former ally of Benjamin Netanyahu, said at the weekend that his new party might consider an alliance with Likud – but that the prime minister couldn’t be part of it. Formed in December, Saar’s New Hope party has soared in the polls and represents the biggest danger to Netanyahu’s chances of remaining in power after the 23 March general election.

What happened

•    The election – the fourth in under two years – was automatically triggered at the end of December when the Knesset failed to pass a budget.
•    Netanyahu is suspected of engineering the budget crisis in order to bring down the “unity government” he formed with the centrist Blue and White party last May. Under the terms of the coalition agreement, Netanyahu was due to hand the premiership to Blue and White leader Benny Gantz – who came close in three successive general elections in 2019-20 to bringing to an end his decade in power – in November. 
•    Netanyahu’s trial on multiple corruption charges will recommence in February. The prime minister had wanted the Knesset to grant him immunity while he remains in office but Gantz opposed any such move. 
•    Saar is very much a man of the right, but he accuses the prime minister of turning the Likud party into a “cult of personality” and a “tool” to serve his interests including “those related to the criminal trial”.
•    Saar has won a number of high-profile defectors from Likud and says there is “no scenario” in which he will join a Netanyahu government. New Hope is currently running second in the polls behind Likud.

The bigger picture

The election is set to be dominated by the question of Netanyahu’s fate. As David Horovitz, editor of the Times of Israel has suggested: “If our last three rapid-fire elections largely revolved around the question of whether Israelis wanted Netanyahu as our prime minister any longer — pushing to the margins what had once been core electoral issues such as the Palestinian conflict, settlements, the powers of the Supreme Court, and military service for the ultra-Orthodox — the March 2021 vote is all about whether Israelis want Netanyahu as our prime minister any longer.” 

What the polls show

According to the BICOM poll of polls, the parties opposed to Netanyahu remaining as prime minister – which range from the Israeli-Arab Joint List and Meretz on the left to Saar’s New Hope on the right – are projected to win 60 seats (one short of a majority), while Likud and it’s ultra-Orthodox and religious right allies look set to win 48 seats. 

Splintered opposition

The opposition to Netanyahu is highly splintered:

•    After he broke his pledge not to serve with Netanyahu, Gantz’s Blue and White snapped in two. Yesh Atid and its leader, Yair Lapid, remained in the opposition, while Gantz led a rump into government with Likud. Lapid’s bet looks the wiser one: Blue and White, which won 33 seats when Israelis voted last March, is now polling around four seats, while Yesh Atid has 14. Gantz’s appeals for the centre-left to unite have been angrily rebuffed in many quarters, although Lapid is keeping a door open, not least because the defence minister has access to considerable state funding based on Blue and White’s performance in March 2020.
•    The Joint List, which was the third biggest parliamentary group after the last election, is divided and losing ground in the polls. The Islamist Ra’am party is reported to be planning to pull out from the alliance of Arab nationalist, left-wing and religious parties. 

No going Barak

•    Labor, which followed Gantz into government, is in danger of failing to make it back into the Knesset, according to the polls. 
•    The veteran Labor mayor of Tel Aviv, Ron Huldai, has launched a new centre-left part, the Israelis, and pledged to defeat the country’s “crazy right-wing government”. Huldai secured the support of Blue and White justice minister Avi Nissenkorn but his suggestion that the election is a two-horse race between him and Netanyahu is belied by polls showing The Israelis only winning around five seats.
•    Amir Peretz has quit as Labor leader and won’t be standing again for the Knesset. Merav Michaeli, an MK who vociferously opposed Labor joining the government, is standing in the leadership contest due next weekend. Itzik Shmuli, who served as social welfare minister in the government, has ruled himself out as a contender.
•    Former prime minister Ehud Barak – who led the party to victory in 1999 – turned down a request from Labor's governing board to stand in the leadership election. He cited the fractured centre-left field, arguing that a precondition of ejecting Netanyahu was a joint slate of Labor, The Israelis and Yesh Atid to be formed.

Every vote counts

•    Netanyahu is banking on the swift vaccine roll-out and the normalisation agreements with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco to restore some of the political lustre he lost from the government’s perceived bungled handing of the pandemic. “I’m not afraid of elections,” he said after the Knesset was dissolved. “The Israeli public knows who has delivered millions [of] vaccines, four peace agreements, who is stopping Iran, who has delivered security and who is going to rehabilitate the economy with greater momentum.” 
•    But the prime minister knows he’s potentially in the political fight of his life. Nothing underlines that more clearly than his bid for the votes of Israeli-Arabs. On election day 2015, he infamously posted a video in which he warned “the Arab voters are going in droves to the polling stations.” Netanyahu now says those remarks were “twisted” by his opponents.
•    As always, Netanyahu is also heavily involved in various machinations on the right. He is said to have encouraged Bezalel Smotrich’s socially conservative National Union – rebranded as Religious Zionism – to break away from the right-wing Yamina party. He is now reportedly encouraging the far-right Otzma Yehudit party to merge with it. 

The kingmaker

Another former ally who has fallen out with Netanyahu – Yamina leader Naftali Bennett of – might hold the key to the prime minister’s fate. Despite having previously served as education and defence minister in Netanyahu-led governments, Bennett opted not to have Yamina join the “unity government”. His sharp critiques of its handling of the pandemic has seen Yamina rise in the polls. In the past, Bennett pledged he’d back Netanyahu remaining prime minister, but he’s giving no such pledge this time, instead saying of the prime minister: “We must thank him for his years of service but we must move on.” Some commentators believe that if he wins Bennett’s support, Saar may be able to assemble an ideologically heterodox coalition of parties united by one thing: their desire to see the back of Bibi. 

What happens next

•    Labour’s leadership contest takes place next Sunday (24 January). It will hold primaries for its list on Monday 1 February. Alongside the Jewish Home, Labor is the only major party to be holding primaries this year.
•    New alliances will be formed as parties jockey to ensure that – at the very least – they clear the 3.25 percent of the vote threshold needed to win seats in the Knesset.
•    The deadline for party lists to be submitted is Thursday 4 February. 
LFI News and Campaigns
Changing the debate about Israel in UK trade unions

Are you a trade union member who wants to see a more balanced debate about Israel in your unions, and opposes anti-Israel boycotts? This event is for you. Britain Israel Trade Union Dialogue (BITUD) and We Believe in Israel (WBII) have put together an online seminar on “Changing the debate about Israel in UK trade unions”. Taking place at 6pm on Monday 25th January, the event will feature Peter Lerner, executive director of International from Israel’s TUC, the Histadrut, and former MP and trade union official Ruth Smeeth. It will cover everything you need to know about the political situation regarding Israel inside the UK unions, the latest information about the Israeli and Palestinian trade union movements, and practical tips about how to get organised to change the debate in your union. Places are limited so register now here.
This Week
Abbas announces Palestinians will vote in new elections this year
Mahmoud Abbas has fired the starting gun on presidential and parliamentary elections in the West Bank and Gaza - 15 years after Palestinians last went to the polls. The Palestinian president signed a decree on Friday scheduling parliamentary elections for 22 May. Presidential elections will follow two months later on 31 July, with a vote for the Palestinian National Council  - the PLO's elected body - scheduled on 31 August. Palestinians last voted in a presidential election in 2005 when Abbas won a four-year term. Parliamentary elections were held a year later but resulted in a victory for Islamist terror group Hamas, which then staged a violent coup in Gaza in 2007. Hamas has agreed to the new elections as part of the latest efforts to broker a reconciliation agreement between it and Abbas' Fatah movement. Numerous previous deals have fallen apart, not least because of Hamas' unwillingness to give up its weapons. Abbas has scheduled - and then cancelled - elections on previous occasions and there is scepticism about whether the new polls will go ahead. Polls indicate that, should be chose to run again, the 85-year-old Abbas faces defeat by Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Abbas' move is seen by some as an effort to curry favour with the incoming Biden administration. “Abbas may want to restore his legitimacy in front of the international community, after ruling for so many years without elections. The regional picture has also changed dramatically over the last few months, with the normalization agreements between Israel and the Arab states,” said Palestinian political analyst Jihad Harb. The PA says it will request the elections also take place in East Jerusalem. 
Read full article
Labour calls for new approach to Iran and tougher nuclear deal
A new tougher nuclear deal with Iran is needed, the shadow Middle East minister Wayne David has argued. In a piece for The House Magazine, David calls for the incoming Biden administration to rejoin the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and offer Iran relief from the crippling sanctions imposed by Donald Trump, arguing that the US has approach has had "the opposite of the intended effect". But the frontbencher also accuses Tehran of "deliberately" breaching the agreement and says restoring the Islamic republic's compliance with the nuclear deal is not enough to "address all the concerns raised by Iran's activities". "The JCPOA says nothing about Iran’s ballistic missile programme, which is designed to deliver nuclear weapons, nor its support for terrorist groups and militias throughout the Middle East," David argues. "These issues need to be addressed and although the British government believes that a long-term perspective is needed, there is an imperative to move those issues firmly up the international agenda." A new agreement - coupled with a "strengthened" inspection ability for the International Atomic Energy Agency - must include "much more than restricting and monitoring the country’s nuclear capability, important as that is", David writes. He also urges Britain and the EU to "intensify their dialogue with Israel and the Gulf States" with the goal of easing regional tensions. The shadow minister argues that Britain must also take a tougher stance on Iran's gross abuses of human rights. "Britain needs to go beyond its current approach of discrete pressure and actively consider extending Magnitsky-style sanctions against key perpetrators," he suggests, while also accusing Tehran of "state hostage taking".
Read full article
PA expects first vaccine shipment as Israel aims for 250,000 jabs a day
The Palestinian Authority said on Tuesday that the first shipment of covid vaccines - which had been expected "within days" - had been delayed until mid-February for "technical reasons". Last week, the PA health ministry granted emergency approval for the Russian-made Sputnik V vaccine. It is one of four providers with which the PA has signed contracts. Israel has already  approved Ramallah's request for the shipment of an initial 5,000 doses to enter the West Bank via the Allenby Crossing. The PA said in December it would receive 4 million doses of the Sputnik vaccine in all. The PA, which has responsibility for healthcare under the Oslo Accords, says it expects to have sufficient doses to vaccinate 70 percent of the population of the West Bank and Gaza by mid-March. Israel's prison service also announced on Sunday that it was beginning to vaccinate all prisoners, including an estimated 4,400 Palestinians held in its jails. Health minister Yuli Edelstein said last week that the first doses would begin arriving in prisons within days. The developments came as the Israeli government ordered the country's four health maintenance organisations to begin vaccinating all those over the age of 40. As of Tuesday morning, 2.19 million Israelis have received their first dose of the vaccine and 423,000 have received the second dose. Israel continues to outpace the world in the number of vaccines doses adminstered per 100,000 people. More than 30 percent of Israelis have now been vaccinated, with the UAE close to 20 percent. The UK is on 6.65 percent and the US on 3.71 percent. Edelstein said on Tuesday that Israel now aims to inoculate 250,000 people per day.
Read full article
Essential Reading

Israel’s coming election may be decided on the religious right
Haviv Rettig Gur

Disgruntled Arab candidates search for new "political homes"

Khaled Abu Toameh

The debate on Israel-Palestine has been exported, but the conflict will be solved at home
Anshel Pfeffer


Long sidelined, Arab Israeli entrepreneurs looking to join tech boom with Emirati backing
Shira Rubin


Essential Viewing

America, the Middle East, and the World: A conversation with Tony Blair
Washington Institute for Nearly East Policy
Tweet of the Week
IMAGES: Gideon Saar > Ziv Koren (זיו קורן), CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons; Mahmoud Abbas >  Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons; Iran nuclear deal > Dragan Tatic, CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons; Coronavirus > Alissa Eckert, MSMI, Dan Higgins, MAMS, Public Health Image Library
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