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The CottonInfo Moisture Manager
In this edition:
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Latest weather and climate news:
- Tropical La Niña moisture continues to bring rain in the north, as the 30-day SOI registers +18, as the event now begins to decay before resetting in Autumn.
- A key driver of summer rainfall in NSW, the Southern Annular Mode is currently in neutral phase, and unlikely to influence the climate in traditional cotton growing areas in the coming weeks;
- The latest season model survey showing consensus for higher-than-normal odds for cooler temperatures across northern and eastern area, while rainfall favours NSW areas - from February to April 2021.
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Australian rainfall (week ending 24 January 2020)
Rainfall maps courtesy: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
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Summary of climate indicators
The Walker circulation (SOI) still favours La Niña atmospheric characteristics, now at +18. The 2020 La Niña has now peaked, and its influence will be reduced over the coming months as it resets this Autumn. The IOD has also peaked for 2020 and basin-wide warming sees the indicator stabilise back to zero. The SAM is neutral and unlikely to influence our climate in the coming few weeks. For more information on what the climatic indicators mean, click here. |
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2020 Year rain deciles
A fantastic year for most NSW growing areas but unfortunately more of the same for Qld regions.
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2020 year mean temperature deciles
Most cotton areas received above-average temperature deciles for the calendar year.
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Seasonal Model Survey (Feb-Apr)
Almost full model consensus for cooler temperatures. Results leaning towards wetter conditions for NSW and (not shown here), tropical northern Australian growing areas.
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CSD Northern Growing Season Climate Outlook - Webinar recording (15 Jan)
With most northern areas receiving a start to the wet season from the much anticipated La Niña, above-average rainfall has not covered all areas that need it. Join Sam Lee and CottonInfo Climate Technical Lead Jon Welsh to run through the climate processes that drive the northern growing season, as well as the latest model run results, where convective moisture comes from and key things to watch in the growing season. To access the webinar recording, click here or on the image below……. https://www.csd.net.au/northern-australia-monsoon-update-webinar-d4Gf6rF8
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Can't get enough climate and weather?
Each Friday, Ag Econ's team of climate analysts release a region-by-region summary of the coming monthly outlook, detailed analysis of climate conditions, expert commentary from global climatologists, the latest climate research findings, farmer climate stories, weather App reviews, heatwave monitoring and where to access the latest tools and models. The most recent edition features an interview with northern NSW grazier, Hamish McLaren and how his farming business has diversified geographically to mitigate climate risk. In this instance, establishing farms with opposing climate influences either side of the Great Dividing Range has stabilised farm revenue, lengthened the production window and withstood the test of time. Also, in this week's edition, we analyse the remote climate drivers and gaze into the crystal ball for what lies ahead in 2021. Visit https://www.agecon.com.au/farmer-forecast |
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