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Dark days ahead
for junta-ruled Myanmar
Developments in Myanmar have sent shockwaves across Southeast Asia and the world as the country’s nascent experiment with electoral democracy was brought to an unceremonial, if temporary, end with the imposition of military-led emergency rule on February 1, hours before the opening session of the country’s newly-elected parliament.
Aung San Suu Kyi, the country’s democratically elected de facto leader, and ousted President Win Myint remain under house arrest five days after the coup. Police have filed filmsy charges against Suu Kyi for importing walkie-talkie radios illegally, while Win Myint is accused of breaking coronavirus restrictions. She has called on supporters to resist the coup through civil disobedience, manifestations of which are rising on the streets of Yangon and other urban centers.
Myanmar’s powerful military chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, 64, is now the country’s coup-installed ruler. His regime has promised to hold new elections after a one-year period of emergency rule, but if the country’s history of junta rule is a guide that time-framed vow may or may not be upheld.
The toppled National League for Democracy (NLD), meanwhile, is calling for Suu Kyi’s release and for the junta to recognize her thumping victory in November’s elections, over which the military has unconvincingly alleged fraud. Asia Times’ veteran correspondent and renowned Myanmar expert Bertil Lintner shared his views on the coup with the Southeast Asia Insider.
Why did Myanmar's generals really stage their coup?
They had grown weary of being opposed by the National League for Democracy party, which had tried to curtail the powers granted the armed forces under the 2008 constitution. That constitution was designed to retain the position of the armed forces as the country's most powerful institution.
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What role did military chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing's impending retirement play in the coup's calculus?
It may have played some role but not a decisive one. The coup would have happened anyway. But it is plausible that Min Aung Hlaing would want to follow the example of Thailand's General Prayut Chan-ocha, who also staged a coup (in 2014) and later entered politics and became prime minister.
Or another former general, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), who became Indonesia's president after a period of chaotic years with civilian presidents. But both Prayut and SBY managed to win elections. It is doubtful that Min Aung Hlaing, given his lack of popular support, would be able to do the same.
If elections are held in February 2022, as the military has promised, the NLD would have to have its wings clipped and pro-military parties do better than they did in the 2015 and 2020 elections. There are no signs the latter will happen in the current political climate, though the generals may try the former.
Do you expect a 1988-type popular uprising against the coup? Why or why not?
People I have talked to say that they don't want to see blood in the streets, which was the case in 1988. And the military has made it clear that they will use lethal force to suppress any large demonstrations against the takeover.
That is why several sections of society have urged the public to resort to civil disobedience. That is now spreading across health institutions and schools all over Myanmar, but the question is how effective it will be. There is no common leadership that could lead and coordinate such a movement. And we can expect the pressure from the military to return to work and class will be massive, even forceful.
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Do the generals truly intend to hold elections in one year or will they likely hold power for longer?
That is too early to say. If by early 2022 they have managed to emasculate the NLD and strengthen their own parties, it is quite possible that elections will be held. But we have to remember that the 2008 constitution is still in force, and that gives them power over any civilian and quasi-civilian government that takes over after the next elections.
The three most important ministries, those of defense (the military), home affairs (which includes the police and internal security agencies) and border affairs (ethnic areas) will then, as now, be controlled by the military.
Any attempt to change or amend the 2008 constitution would require more than three-quarters of all MPs vote in favor of such proposals. Because the military appoints a quarter of parliamentarians, it cannot be done without its consent.
And it would be foolish to believe that some military-appointed MPs might "cross the aisle" and vote with the elected MPs. They are soldiers, and soldiers obey orders. They don't vote according to their conscience.
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Following the money behind Myanmar’s coup
February 5, 2021
Richard S. Ehrlich delves into the economic and financial incentives that pushed Senior General Min Aung Hlaing to stage his democracy-suspending putsch. The coup leader and his family would have potentially been vulnerable to financial investigations under Aung San Suu Kyi’s new National League for Democracy (NLD)-led government.
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Malaysia’s emergency fails to tame surging viral wave
February 5, 2021
Nile Bowie assesses the Malaysian government’s handling of a surging Covid-19 crisis since the controversial declaration of a state of emergency last month. With death rates sharply on the rise, observers say authorities have so far fallen short in their goal of protecting lives while preserving the livelihoods of Malaysians.
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Myanmar’s coup splits an already deeply divided region
February 5, 2021
Richard Javad Heydarian makes sense of ASEAN members’ divergent responses to the coup in Myanmar, with some openly critical and expressing grave concern and others echoing China’s muted response, revealing cracks in a regional organization that has for years been similarly divided over Naypyidaw’s mass atrocities against Rohingya Muslims.
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China the geopolitical winner of Myanmar’s coup
February 4, 2021
Bertil Lintner sees China as once again poised to be the “friend in need” it has always been in times of crises for the Tatmadaw, which the US is threatening to sanction. Beijing is not likely to criticize Myanmar’s new military government, even if its new direction and policies dent somewhat its interests and ongoing projects in the country.
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China building Indonesia into an EV powerhouse
February 4, 2021
John McBeth digs into China’s rising investments in Indonesia’s mineral resources used to make electric vehicles, rich outlays that promise to boost the nation’s industrial prospects. Hard-charging Chinese investors are developing a fully-integrated supply chain, a vindication of the country’s once much-criticized value-added mining policy.
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Misreading the Myanmar military’s mind
February 3, 2021
David Scott Mathieson argues that agents and proponents of Western engagement with Myanmar's military who accepted it was genuinely invested in a “democratic transition” had fundamentally misread the Tatmadaw as an institution and failed to comprehend that it is incapable of change.
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How Myanmar’s generals will seek to sell the coup
February 3, 2021
Bertil Lintner assesses how Myanmar’s coup-makers could change election rules to allow for the proportional representation of seats in the national parliament and local assemblies in a bid to give their putsch a veneer of legitimacy as it moves to emasculate the toppled National League for Democracy (NLD) before holding promised new polls.
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Bird’s eye view of Myanmar’s bloodless coup
February 2, 2021
Thompson Chau and Dominic Oo report from Yangon, painting a vivid picture of a city in shock after the military’s seizure of power as long queues formed outside bank branches and supermarkets across the city. Residents banged metal pots and pans in a noisy show of popular disapproval of the democracy-overturning putsch.
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Military coup puts Myanmar back to square one
February 1, 2021
Bertil Lintner reacts to the Myanmar military’s alarming seizure of power and imposition of emergency rule in the hours after the detention of President Win Myint, State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi, National League for Democracy (NLD) party leaders, local state and region politicians and prominent pro-democracy activists.
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Trong refuses to fade away in Vietnam
February 1, 2021
David Hutt analyzes what 76-year-old Nguyen Phu Trong’s retention of Vietnam’s most powerful position for an unprecedented third term – bending age-limiting rules that ordinarily see senior officials retire after 65 – as Communist Party General Secretary could mean for the country’s political and economic direction.
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Hambali trial prevents Biden from closing Guantanamo
February 1, 2021
John McBeth reports how the leveling of charges against Bali bombing mastermind Riduan Isamuddin, held for 14 years at the Guantanamo Bay detention facility, by US military prosecutors a day after President Joe Biden’s inauguration suggests the prison’s closure still faces stiff opposition in US military and intelligence circles.
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Myanmar’s Rohingya Genocide: Identity, History and Hate Speech
By Ronan Lee
I.B. Tauris, January 2021
The genocide in Myanmar has drawn global attention as Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi appears to be presiding over human rights violations, forced migrations and extra-judicial killings on an enormous scale. This unique study draws on thousands of hours of interviews and testimony from the Rohingya themselves to assess and outline the full scale of the disaster.
Casting new light on Rohingya identity, history and culture, scholar and former Australian politician Ronan Lee’s book has been lauded as an essential contribution to the study of the Rohingya people and to the study of the early stages of genocide. The book adds convincingly to the body of evidence that the government of Myanmar has enabled a genocide in Rakhine state and the surrounding areas.
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WHAT WE’RE WORKING ON
Bertil Lintner has his eye on fast-moving developments in Myanmar as popular resistance to the coup threatens to explode into a confrontation with military forces.
Peter Janssen is digging into Thailand’s exploding online gaming industry, a rare bright spot in the kingdom’s Covid-ravaged economy.
Nile Bowie is looking into the data privacy controversies that erupted in Singapore over the government’s Covid-19 contact tracing app, TraceTogether.
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