A Periodic Newsletter on
Breakthroughs in Strategic Foresight
Feb 2, 2021
Forecasting Performance of the Biden Administration
With President Biden in office, TechCast turns its attention to forecasting how the Biden Administration is likely to handle the unusual challenges now facing the US. A similar study was done forecasting the Trump presidency
As always, our method of collective intelligence follows three rounds, or phases. Think of this as a quick tutorial on our method of collective intelligence.
Round One: Initial Framing and Invitation for Improvements This first round presents a rough analysis of the critical issues facing the US, based on knowledge of the TechCast Team. We invite our readers, and especially TechCast Experts, to respond with their suggestions for improving our initial analysis.
Round Two: Improved Framing and Invitation for Estimates This second round will present an improved version of the analysis and invite forecast estimates.
Round Three: Final Results and Conclusions Round Three will present the results of our forecast and draw conclusions.
Issues to be Forecast
1. Pacify Trump Supporters There are roughly 80 million Trump supporters, and they are likely to exert great influence for years. That’s why the GOP continues to oppose Biden. What can be done to bring them around? Make them reasonable? How likely is it that this can be done?
2. Control the Pandemic Variations of the covid virus are likely to spread for years. How likely is the Biden administration to get it under control in 4 years?
3. Tax the Wealthy With the national debt at stratospheric levels, Biden’s new programs are going to need lots of money and the only source is taxing the wealthy.
4. Extend Universal Health Care Biden plans to expand the ACA (ObamaCare). How likely is this given opposition by the GOP?
5. Combat Climate Change This is going to be tough and costly. No mention of carbon taxes returned to the public.
6. Resolve Racism Biden seems committed to improving the way police treat black people.
7. Pass Immigration Policy Pathway to citizenship for undocumented persons is taboo for the GOP
8. Relieve Political Polarization How is it possible to relieve the polarization that has the US in pollical gridlock?
9. Rebuild Infrastructure How can this be done without costing $ trillions?
10. Resume Economic Growth Will pent-up demand from the recession produce explosive growth in a year or so? What about the growth effects of breakthroughs in AI and other emerging technologies that are likely to appear soon?
11. Equalize Wealth and Income Gaps Biden is proposing an increase in the minimum wage to $15/hour. What else is possible to help middle- and lower-class incomes?
12. Rebuild Global Relations The US is returning to the Paris Accords, WHO and possibly the Iranian nuclear treaty. What about China?
13. Reduce Federal Debt The US debt is over 100 % of annual GDP, the danger point. Is resumed economic growth likely to start reducing the debt?
14. Gain Public Approval What are the odds of Biden accomplishing enough to gain approval ratings above 50% on average? 70%?
Invitation for Comments
Please look over the above background information and send your thoughts for improving it to Halal@GWU.edu.
- Can you suggest other challenges/issues to be forecast?
- Suggest background trends on individual challenges?
- General thoughts about this study?
Do not send estimates yet; that will come later after improving the way the issues are framed and background data (Round 3). We are planning to rate each issue on a scale from 0 (Terrible) to 10 (Excellent)
Why Forecast?
But why should we bother doing all the work needed to conduct this study? In short, why forecast?
We forecast critical events so we can plan for the future. So entrepreneurs can launch more successful ventures. So leaders can guide their followers more wisely. So families can live their lives more effectively
Good forecasts involving large number of people can create a self-fulfilling prophecy. The process itself can create a desired future.
We now forecast the Biden Administration performance because it will set the agenda for the US, and much of the world.
The TechCast-Cognis Virtual Workshop
Strategic Foresight Forum
This annual Strategic Foresight Forum is a virtual workshop that brings together prominent thought leaders to collectively provide the best strategic solutions to the transformative changes of our time. The process is designed to help participants develop a more powerful strategic posture to master the challenges of a changing world. This year's theme is Planning for Transformative Change.
Personal Invitation
The TechCast-Cognis-City Future Virtual Conference
Planning for Transformative Change
The pandemic and other threats like climate change make it clear the global order is not sustainable. It is an existential challenge to people everywhere. The World Economic Forum called for “A Great Reset" in all spheres of society. Leaders in business, government, and other institutions should plan for transformative change –- NOW.
- Purpose This workshop is designed to help executives develop a new strategic posture to meet these transformative challenges.
- Program Ninety-minute meetings will be held on Zoom. See the Program Agenda for details.
- Participation Small groups of participants will discuss applications to their institutions and pool their judgment to form strategic postures.
Prominent Speakers
Giving Strategic Talks
On the Pivotal Issues of Our Time
Limor Shafman, Host. President, The Keystone Tech Group
Frequent Host and Speaker.
Jess Garretson, CEO, The Cognis Group
William Halal, The TechCast Project,
George Washington University
Steven Hausman, Futurist and Speaker
Former Administrator, National Institutes of Health
John Lewis, Coach, Speaker, Author of “Story Thinking”
Anthony Cascio, Director of Research & Engineering
The Cognis Group
Gabriele Rizzo, Visionary Futurist and Enthusiastic Innovator
Jerome Glenn, CEO, The Millennium Project
Ted Gordon, Co-Founder, The Millennium Project
Paul Saffo, Forecaster
Art Murray, President/CEO
Applied Knowledge Sciences, Inc.
Cutting-Edge Research from
TechCast and Prominent Speakers
Thought-Provoking Articles and Reports
Feb 5. State-of-the-Art in Strategy and Foresight: Change from the Bottom Up And the Outside In; The Human Side of Transformative Change.
Feb 12. Managing the Technology Revolution: A Macro Forecast of the Most Likely 2030 Scenario; Survey of Disruptive Technologies.
Feb 19. The Great Reset in Mental Models: An Emerging Global Consciousness,
and Story Thinking.
Feb 26. The Historic Rise of Stakeholders: Building the Collaborative Enterprise; Keys to Open Innovation.
Mar 5. Threats to Cybersecurity: Staying Safe in a Digital World; Which Data, What Data, What Futures: Cybersecurity from the Cloud to the Brain Cloud.
Mar 12. Coping with Pandemics: Three Scenarios with Guides to Survival.
Mar 19. Practicum on Strategy Formation: Conclusions and Take Away Strategic Postures
To clarify questions or other issues, email Prof. Halal at Halal@GWU.edu
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Letters
TechCast always encourages letters, comments and suggestions.
Keynote on Autonomous Vehicles Conference
TechCast gave a keynote speech at an international conference on transportation featuring autonomous cars on November 2, 2020. The conference was organized by the Intelligent Transport Society of South Korea.
TechCast's Bill Halal organized his talk around the five principles of Global Consciousness.
TechCast Briefs Angel Investors
TechCast founder, William Halal, kicked off the annual meeting of the Angel Capital Association’s Virtual Summit May 12 with his keynote on The Technology Revolution. Among his many points, Bill outlined how AI is causing today’s move beyond knowledge to an Age of Consciousness, and that business is now altering corporate consciousness to include the interests of all stakeholders. Angel investors are concerned about the social impacts of their companies, so this news was well received, especially as Bill stressed this historic change could be a competitive advantage.
Armed Forces Communication and Electronics Association
Prof. Halal spoke on the topic of AI, noting TechCast’s forecast that AI is expected to automate 30% of routine knowledge work about 2025 +3/-1 years and General AI is likely to arrive about 2040. Expanding on the same theme delivered at ACA, Bill explained how today’s shifting consciousness is likely to transform, not only business, but also government, the military and all other institutions. Halal also spoke at the annual AFCEA conference on the
We Invite Your Ideas
TechCast offers exciting new possibilities to use our unequaled talent and resources for creative projects. I invite you to send me your questions, fresh ideas, articles to publish, consulting work, research studies, or anything interesting on the tech revolution.
Email me at Halal@GWU.edu and I'll get back to you soon. Have your friends and colleagues sign up for this newsletter at www.BillHalal.com.
Thanks, Bill
William E. Halal, PhD
The TechCast Project
George Washington University
Bill's Blog is published by:
The TechCast Project www.TechCastProject.com
Prof. William E. Halal, Founder
George Washington University
Prof. Halal can be reached at Halal@GWU.edu
The TechCast Project is an academic think tank that pools empirical background information and the knowledge of high-tech CEOs, scientists and engineers, academics, consultants, futurists and other experts worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields. Over 20 years of leading the field, we have been cited by the US National Academies, won awards, been featured in the Washington Post and other media, and consulted by corporations and governments around the world. TechCast and its wide range of experts are available for consulting, speaking and training in all aspects of strategic foresight.
Elise Hughes, Editor
Copyright © 2020 The TechCast Project. All rights reserved.
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