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Hello, Readers of TechCast Research:

The TechCast Team is happy to invite you to participate in this second round of our study on the Biden Administration. 

This round includes useful suggestions made by Sten Grahn, John Freedman, Jacques Malan,  Dennis Bushnell, John Meagher, and Margherita Abe.  Each of these 15 issues below is a universe in itself, so we ask you to approach each question broadly to get an overall sense of what you think is most likely on a 0-10 point scale. The scale is anchored with crisp definitions at each end of the spectrum.

Please look over the background information to each issue and send your estimates and comments to Halal@GWU.edu.   

Comments on each issue and the Biden Administration generally are encouraged and will be posted along with the survey results. 

You can email Bill a rating from 0 to 10 for each of the 15 issues. Or you can copy the entire list above and email it to Bill with your ratings. 


Thanks for your participation. Look for results in Round Three soon.



Best regards, Bill

Prof. William E. Halal, PhD
The TechCast Project
George Washington University








 

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  With President Biden in office, TechCast turns its attention to forecasting how the Biden Administration is likely to handle the unusual challenges now facing the US.  A similar study was done forecasting the Trump presidency 
 
As always, our method of collective intelligence follows three rounds, or phases. Think of this as a quick tutorial on our method of collective intelligence.
 
Round One: Initial Framing and Invitation for Improvements    The first round presented a rough analysis of the critical issues facing the US, based on knowledge of the TechCast Team. We invited our readers, and especially TechCast Experts, to respond with their suggestions for improving our initial analysis.
 
Round Two: Improved Framing and Invitation for Estimates  This second round  presents an improved version of the analysis and invite forecast estimates.
 
Round Three:  Final Results and Conclusions   Round Three will present the results of our forecast and draw conclusions.
 


Issues to be Forecast
 

1. Reconcile Trump Supporters   Most of Trump's 74 million voters and GOP officials continue to support the ex-president, despite his "big lie" that the election was stolen.  This is has polarized society, led to the Jan 6 insurrection, and threatens the GOP. Can they be won over by listening to their complaints and taking action?  Could reforming the GOP return them to the mainstream?  Please estimate how likely is it that Trump supporters are reconciled with mainstream America. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = none are reconciled and 10 = all are reconciled.



2. Control the Pandemic   Variations of the covid virus are likely to spread for years. Will the vaccines achieve herd immunity soon? Or could variants continue to threaten? Please estimate the likelihood that the Biden administration gets the pandemic under control. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = the pandemic remains out of control and 10 = the pandemic is resolved and we return to normal life.


3. Tax the Wealthy   With the national debt at stratospheric levels, Biden’s new programs are going to need lots of money and the only source seems to be taxing the wealthy. But proponents of the Modern Monetary Theory contend there is no limit regarding how much money is "printed." This view claims that a deficit is not really a problem. Please estimate the likelihood that taxes are raised to the rates existing before the 2016 tax cut. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = taxes are not raised and 10 = taxes are raised to the prior rates.


4. Extend Universal Health Care  Biden plans to expand the ACA (ObamaCare). Will this be opposed by the GOP? Other groups?  Please estimate how likely is the ACA to be improved. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = improvements in the ACA are blocked and 10 = improvements are successful.


5. Combat Climate Change  This is going to be tough and costly.  No mention of carbon taxes returned to the public. Will it be opposed by those fearful of economic costs? Please estimate how likely is it that the Biden administration will take major steps to actively address climate change threats.   Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = no action on climate and 10 = the crisis is addressed as best as possible.


6. Resolve Racism  Biden seems committed to improving the way police treat black people. Can the BLM movement be satisfied? Will the change be resisted?  Please estimate how likely is it that race relations are made equitable. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = no change and 10 = the race problem is eliminated.


7. Pass Immigration Policy    Pathway to citizenship for undocumented persons is taboo for the GOP. Will they block passage?  Or will reason prevail finally? How likely is it a reasonable immigration law passed? Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = no action on immigration and 10 = sound immigration bill is passed.



8. Relieve Political Polarization  How is it possible to relieve the polarization that has the US in pollical gridlock? Can the two parties learn to compromise? Will Biden anger the GOP by being unilateral?  How likely is polarization to be resolved? Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = polarization continues and 10 = cooperation becomes possible.



9. Rebuild Infrastructure   How can this be done without costing $ trillions? Will corporations help? Or will rebuilding be avoided because of cost? How likely is a serious infrastructure rebuilding program agreed on? Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = no action on infrastructure and 10 = sound infrastructure is rebuilt.



10. Resume Economic Growth  Will pent-up demand from the recession produce explosive growth in a year or so? What about the growth effects of breakthroughs in AI and other emerging technologies that are likely to appear soon? Will a recession stall the economy? Please estimate how likely is it that the US will see robust economic growth. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = no growth and 10 = 3-4% annual growth.



11. Equalize Wealth and Income Gaps  Biden is proposing an increase in the minimum wage to $15/hour. What else is possible to help middle- and lower-class incomes? Will this be resisted? Please estimate the likelihood that the wealth gap is narrowed significantly. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = no decrease in the wealth gap and 10 = the gap is reduced substantially.



12. Rebuild Global Relations   The US is returning to the Paris Accords, WHO and possibly the Iranian nuclear treaty. What about China? Will it be too hard to repair ties? Or will they welcome us back? Please estimate the likelihood that US global relations are resumed. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = global relations remain broken and 10 = relations are resumed.



13. Reduce Federal Debt The US debt is over 100 % of annual GDP, the danger point. Is resumed economic growth likely to start reducing the debt?  Is it too late? Will increased costs add more debt? Please estimate the likelihood that debt is reduced substantially. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = no decrease in the debt and 10 = the debt is reduced by several $ trillion.



14. Gain Public Approval   What are the odds of Biden accomplishing enough to gain good approval ratings? Will all these crises prove to be too much? Can Biden rise to the challenge? Please estimate the likelihood that approval ratings are strong. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = approval ratings are 0% and 10 = ratings are 100%.


15.  Improve Cybersecurity and Military Threats   Can Russia, N. Korea, China and other adversaries be deterred?  Maybe the threats are too great. What is the likelihood that these military threats are reduced? Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = threats continue and 10 = threats are contained.

 
Invitation for Estimates
 
Please look over the above background information and send your estimates and comments to Halal@GWU.edu.   

Comments on each issue and the Biden Administration generally are encouraged and will be posted along with the survey results. 

You can email Bill a rating from 0 to 10 for each of the 15 issues above. Or you can copy the entire list above and email it to Bill with your ratings. 

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