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Myanmar teeters toward
an anti-coup tipping point
In the nearly two weeks since Aung San Suu Kyi's elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government was removed from power by an audacious military coup, Myanmar’s generals find themselves facing a broad popular backlash. Youth-led protests have swept the nation and have given rise to fears of a bloody crackdown reminiscent of coups past.
Senior General Min Aung Hlaing didn’t exude confidence during a televised address this week where he attempted to smooth over the putsch’s rough edges with vows to uphold foreign investment policies. The United States has since put in place targeted sanctions on the junta leaders and their business interests.
Thompson Chau, a Yangon-based reporter and Asia Times contributor, spoke to the Southeast Asia Insider about the anti-coup struggle now unfolding in Myanmar, offering first-hand insights into the grassroots pushback and its implications for the country’s economy as international investors begin their retreat.
Thousands of people have joined anti-coup demonstrations in Yangon and across Myanmar, with hundreds of government workers, medical staff and others marching in support of a growing civil disobedience campaign. Is their strategy essentially to make the country ungovernable until the junta relinquishes power?
Indeed, in Yangon alone, tens of thousands of people have been out to the streets everyday over the past week, while crowds have swarmed towns and cities all over the country. Meanwhile, public servants including doctors, service units and reportedly tax officials too are going on strike. These movements reveal the extent of opposition and anger among the public, and are in part a result of the lack of clear direction from Aung San Suu Kyi and top National League for Democracy leaders, who have been detained since February 1.
Protesters tell me the civil disobedience movement and peaceful protests help avoid directly confronting the security forces and reduce the risks of unrest, which they think would give the military an excuse to stay in power. The public essentially demands the release of Suu Kyi and other detainees and reinstating the (partially) democratic government. Some have gone further and want the military-written 2008 Constitution to be abolished.
Protests were often dominated by the color red – red t-shirts, red balloons, red banners – the color of the symbol of the NLD. But the color black is also very powerful and visible. One protester told me many young people wore black to indicate that they are not joining the movements to support any particular individual or party – they support the system of democracy.
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Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing claimed this week that his regime is "different" from past military governments, and assured that there would be no change from the NLD government’s openness to foreign investment. Given the country’s geostrategic importance, is Myanmar going to be as economically isolated now as it was under Tatmadaw rule in the past?
The military junta clearly wants to present a “business as usual” image to retain business confidence and keep foreign investments in the country. Min Aung Hlaing in his first televised speech since the coup said he welcomes foreign investments and has appointed Aung Naing Oo, a reformist technocrat well-regarded by foreign and local businesspeople, as the regime’s new investment minister. These indicate the regime’s desire to be seen as a reformist administration similar to Thein Sein’s. But the fundamentals and external environment are poles apart from the 2011-16 government.
Japanese Kirin and Singapore investor Lim Kaling, founder of Razor, both pulled out of commercial partnerships with military entities within a week. The aid community is expected to take a hit while tourism, already hurt by Covid-19, is very unlikely to fully recover.
The political taint of the junta regime, political instability and disruptions such as curfews and internet blackouts have throttled small businesses and big investors. Corporate executives in Yangon say it is hard to see how Myanmar right now would be an attractive investment destination, even if one has good relations with the Tatmadaw.
The US president this week already approved an executive order for new sanctions on 10 current and former military officials responsible for the coup and associated with the new regime. The sanctions also affect three army-linked businesses.
Boycott campaigns have been ongoing and have targeted brands owned by military companies, notably telco operator Mytel and Myanmar Beer, a joint venture with Kirin. But protesters warn that business-owners who are seen as embracing the junta could also be at risk of triggering a public backlash and consumer boycott.
Two days ago, activist group Justice For Myanmar published a list of military members of the State Administrative Council and their family members, their businesses and business associates, calling for immediate and targeted international sanctions. These campaigns are expected to continue.
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There has been an escalation in the use of force against protesters in recent days, with police firing live rounds in a warning to demonstrators. There are also reports that small numbers of police have even joined the pro-democracy protests. Do you see the situation tipping toward a bloody crackdown and might such events cause a rift among security forces?
Analysts consider the likelihood of a split of the security forces, especially in the military, very low. There was an escalation of force over the past week, with water cannons and rubber bullets deployed against civilians, raising concerns about the risk of a violent crackdown. Martial law and a public gathering ban are now in place, but the public have defied the order to come out and protest. The internet blackout imposed last weekend, too, seems ineffective in discouraging protests.
The demonstrations I’ve been to in Yangon were pretty peaceful and protesters were well-disciplined, with people cleaning up rubbish and distributing water and food. There were also ethnic minority protesters, Muslims and LBGT banners. There was a big standoff between protesters and the police in Hledan junction earlier this week. In Naypyidaw and Myawaddy, and other areas, the atmosphere was also tense.
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Myanmar’s generals blindsided by Gen Z protests
February 12, 2021
Bertil Lintner reports on the huge Generation Z-led street demonstrations that have spread across Myanmar, using social media and other tech to outmaneuver the old-fashioned military brass amid clear signs that junta leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing failed to anticipate the youthful fury his democracy-suspending coup would spark.
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France wades into South China Sea against China
February 12, 2021
Richard Javad Heydarian observes the growing internationalization of the South China Sea disputes as France deploys a nuclear attack submarine and naval vessel to the disputed waters in a nod to US President Joe Biden’s call to mount a multilateral challenge to China.
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Military men maneuver and gun for Widodo’s job
February 11, 2021
John McBeth lays out how two decades on from when the Indonesian military lost its grip on the levers of power, some senior generals still nurture ambitions of holding the country’s highest office, with political maneuvering already underway ahead of the country’s next presidential election in 2024 when President Joko Widodo’s final term will end.
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Singapore’s Covid-19 app spreads contagion of distrust
February 11, 2021
Nile Bowie hones in on the controversy over Singapore’s contract tracing app, TraceTogether, which authorities promised would be strictly used for pandemic purposes. But in a country with broadly worded laws governing state surveillance, authorities were strikingly forced to concede that personal data could indeed be used for policing.
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Measure of the man who stole Myanmar’s democracy
February 10, 2021
David Scott Mathieson analyzes the character of Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, whose February 1 coup was the culmination of years of maneuvering and egotistical competition with now detained State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi. The junta leader fits the mold of past military despots, he writes, but is clearly far behind the democratic times.
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Biden signals a ‘cold peace’ contest with China
February 9, 2021
Richard Javad Heydarian unpacks US President Joe Biden’s moves to crank up the pressure on China following his own characterization of the relationship as one defined by ‘extreme competition’ as signs increasingly point to the new president maintaining his predecessor’s tough stance on the disputed and strategically important South China Sea.
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Myanmar military implausibly plays the Rohingya card
February 9, 2021
Bertil Lintner sees Myanmar’s coup regime bidding to deflect rising international condemnation by suggesting it may allow Rohingya refugees, which its forces drove across the border into neighboring Bangladesh in a brutal campaign labeled as genocide, to return home, a sign the junta has few acceptance-winning cards to play.
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Myanmar coup protesters flout and defy martial law
February 9, 2021
Thompson Chau and Dominic Oo report from the streets of Yangon, where pro-democracy demonstrators and military coup-makers remain on an epic collision course as martial law orders are brazenly rejected, a high-stakes scenario that some fear could soon result in the large-scale use of lethal military force.
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Myanmar coup infused with geopolitical intrigue
February 9, 2021
MK Bhadrakumar argues that India’s echoing of US condemnation of the Myanmar putsch amounts to a misstep at a moment when Naypyitaw’s junta regime may be wary of overreliance on Beijing, seeing New Delhi as essentially passing over an opportunity to better serve its geopolitical interests through a more nuanced response.
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Laying bare Bikini Killer fact and fiction
February 6, 2021
John McBeth reflects on French-Vietnamese serial killer Charles Sobhraj's 1970's murder spree of young Western travelers in Asia, a case that he and Dutch diplomat Herman Knippenberg have followed for over four decades and that is now the subject of a recently-released BBC television series that semi-accurately portrays the figures involved.
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Praetorians, Profiteers or Professionals? Studies on the Militaries of Myanmar and Thailand
Edited by Michael J Montesano, Terence Chong, and Prajak Kongkirati
ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, January 2021
Praetorians, Profiteers or Professionals? contributes to the ongoing renaissance in scholarship on Southeast Asia’s armed forces and their political, social and economic roles. This renaissance comes in an era in which the states of the region, and the societies and economies that they govern, have grown complex beyond all recognition. Nevertheless, understanding the militaries behind reoccurring seizures of power remains both crucial and topical.
Emphasizing the ideologies and economic activities of the militaries of two large mainland Southeast Asian neighbors, this volume transcends clichés about coups, coercion, caudillos and kings. Its findings will challenge the thinking of even long-time observers of the region, not least through its comparative perspective and the fresh understanding of the roles and orientations of the armed forces of Myanmar and Thailand that that perspective suggests.
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WHAT WE’RE WORKING ON
Bertil Lintner is watching closely developments in Myanmar as protesters and security forces edge towards a more violent confrontation.
Richard S. Ehrlich is looking deeper into the economic and financial incentives behind Myanmar’s coup
Nile Bowie will take the temperature of Singapore’s bellwether economic growth outlook as it unveils an expectedly expansionary 2021 budget next week.
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