Highlights
Monitored: During January, the entire islands received less rainfall. Over the 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 20% in the Northern islands by 33%.
Predictions: With weak La Nina conditions established; dry conditions are set to prevail across Maldives from February-March 2021. The seasonal temperature remains climatological – perhaps the La Nina influence is countervailed by the prevailing anomalously warm ocean surfaces by the Maldives.
Contents and Links to Sections
1.Climatology
Monthly Climatology: In March, northern and central islands receive average rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. Usually in April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it is northwesterly. Rainfall usually increases up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases.
2.Monitoring
Daily Monitoring:
| Date |
Rainfall |
| Northern Islands |
Central Islands |
Southern Islands |
| 6th - 10th February |
- |
- |
- |
| 11th February |
- |
- |
30mm |
| 12th-13th February |
- |
- |
- |
| 14th February |
- |
- |
10mm |
| 15th February |
- |
- |
20mm |
| 16th February |
- |
60mm |
100mm |
| 17th -18th February |
- |
- |
- |
| 19th February |
- |
- |
20mm |
| 20th February |
- |
- |
10mm |
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring
In January, the entire islands received up to 10 mm; above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,
shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 300 mm from an average of 1450 mm average
Central islands: Deficit of 400 mm from an average of 1675 mm average
Southern islands: Excess of 125 mm from an average of 1775 mm average
.
Caption: The figure shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month for Northern Maldives.
Image 1(left) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years.
Image 2(Right) caption:-Rainfall of past 365 days (black) compared to average rainfall in the previous 8 years.
image 3(middle) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years with above-average rainfall hatched in blue and below-average hatched in brown.
Click Here- To see monthly and seasonal monitoring pdf maps
Detailed regional charts are available in pdf for Northern Central Southern
Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:
1-10 Jan, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall
Central Islands: 100 mm rainfall
Southern Islands: 80 mm rainfall
11-20 Jan, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 150 mm rainfall
Central Islands: 60 mm rainfall
Southern Islands: 5 mm rainfall
3.Predictions
Daily Rainfall Forecast:
Image caption:- Daily Rainfall forecasts (up to 7 days ahead) from the IMD New Delhi is provided in figures below. These predictions are from the GFS (T574) model covering the entire south. Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Weekly and Daily Rainfall Forecast: NOAA GFS model predicts up to 70 mm of rainfall in the northern islands and up to 40 mm in central islands on 19thJan; up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands on 20thJan; up to 10 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands on 21stJan; up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 22nd-23rd Jan; and up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central islands and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands on 24th-25thJan.
4.Sea Surface and Atmospheric State
PACIFIC SEA STATE ( Text Courtesy IRI - February 10, 2021)
In early-Feb 2021, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere spring 2021. The official CPC/IRI outlook slightly favors La Niña development, and carries a La Niña watch.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE
0.5 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.
MJO INDEX
The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 6 and 7 and it is strong in the next two weeks (25 Feb - 11 Mar 2021). MJO in phase 6 usually suppresses rainfall over the Maldives.
Download Printable Report (Part1 - Summary)- Click Here
Download Printable Report (Part2 - Figures)- Click Here
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Image caption:- The weekly average the departure of the Sea surface temperature from the historical average.
