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• Post notices of this study in your social media accounts.
   
• Include a summary of the results in your newsletters.
   
• Write articles using these results in magazines and journals.
   
• Send this newsletter to friends and associates.
   
• Invite people to sign up for our newsletter at www.TechCastProject.com

Prof. William E. Halal, PhD
The TechCast Project
George Washington University

 

 

 

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1. Reconcile Trump Supporters   Most of Trump's 74 million voters and GOP officials continue to support the ex-president, despite his "big lie" that the election was stolen.  This is has polarized society, led to the Jan 6 insurrection, and threatens the GOP. Can they be won over by listening to their complaints and taking action?  Could reforming the GOP return them to the mainstream?  Please estimate how likely is it that Trump supporters are reconciled with mainstream America. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = none are reconciled and 10 = all are reconciled.


Survey Results

































Comments

• There's no hope here. It's a cult, and it will be cancer at the heart of America until the nation's likely demise later in this decade at the hands of Trump II: the nicer, more intelligent version (played by someone else, like Hawley or Scott.)
   
• Depends on whether the Republican Party self-destructs and whether or not a third party emerges.
   
• I think we oversimplify the 74 million voters as Trump voters. They are American voters who did not like the way America was going.  Of course, they will come back, but back to what, what will America look like in 5, 10, 15, years.
   
• Multiculturalism is one thing, society of the future is another.  Mainstream in itself has shifted to a new definition.
   
• A fraction has consolidated a range of perceived injuries and injustices into their support of Trump.  They remain in an echo chamber and will not soon be reconciled.  Another fraction of Trump supporters are more reasonable individuals and thought he was a force for good in shaking up the government status quo, and preserving conservative values…which is actually a menu of individual causes like fiscal restraint, abortion prohibition, etc. The latter can listen to evidence and reason and perhaps shift views over time.  There could emerge a polarization between the two factions within the Republican Party which leads to its splintering.
   
• Tremendous Trump voter political resistance as a result of belief despite evidence refuting the “big lie” exists in Midwest and other areas of U.S.
   
• Censuring, primary challenging, and expelling of non-Trump supporters amongst elected GOP leadership is taking place. This does not bode well for reconciliation at the moment for compromise/change. It does threaten the GOP. Reforming the GOP must be done from the inside out, as well as from the outside in, towards a new non-Trump political party. The GOP must speak truth to power. In this case, the Trump political base about lies, conspiracy frauds, and misinformation spread 2016-2020. Recent events do not indicate this is happening or will likely occur, with a few exceptions. This is absolutely necessary and is the best hope to return GOP to the mainstream and chart inclusive future policies that a national majority of voters can support.
   
• When "what I want to believe" (hearsay, conspiracy theories, anti-science, pseudo-science) takes primacy over objective truth, there is no listening or action that will allow truth to prevail. Social media solidifies this recalcitrance. This form of "Trumpism" is and will remain alive and well and a force to be reckoned with. 
   
• The seed of the doubt is very hard to eradicate. It all will depend on what Trump will do in the next months and how much it will work on the republicans. I doubt Trump will give up on his big theft theory.
   
• Both sides are entrenched and determined to hate each other -- neither has the tool kit, or the inclination, to help the other.
   
• What polarizes most Trump supporters is their opposition to cultural and demographic shifts in the population and advocacy of American primacy in the world. Pragmatically, those who feel a need to reconcile with the body politic have already done so. 

 

 
Survey Results
 


















Comments
 

• I am optimistic that this can be contained and COVID once people are vaccinated will be like the normal flu. Some say it is a pandemic. Depends on whether or not current vaccines can handle mutant varieties.
   
• I think we give Biden too much credit, he will have to define his role in the discovery of Covid Vaccines, we know he is not a scientist as Trump has shown.  The vaccine is being produced out of necessity for planet survival.  
   
• We have faced pandemics with fewer weapons and won in past, notably 1918.  Of course, this an arms race, but the science is stronger and the Biden Administration has taken on the heavy lifting of organizing.
   
• This is existentially necessary for a return to a “new” normal post-pandemic (TBD). Biden resource requests and efforts for vaccine manufacture, distribution, tracking new variants and comparing vaccine effectiveness against new variants, the U.S. getting re-engaged with WHO, and involvement of top-flight U.S. disease specialists bodes well for success with herd immunity or whatever public health/ science-based policy needed. This does not remove threats of variants but offers an excellent chance to reduce risks to a minimum and control them before they get out of control again.
   
• Science and the government's sacred responsibility to safeguard its citizens are now prevailing. The right things are finally happening (albeit hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths too late). The vaccines' efficacy to protect against severe disease is astounding - near 100%. The press has failed to message this sufficiently. The variant problem is a concern but the press has failed to adequately report that vaccine resistance is not "all or none" and the vaccines are, to date, still at least partially protective. The press has also failed to message the promise of the new mRNA technology (a new age of vaccinology is upon us)  to rapidly and safely produce new 'booster' vaccines to target variants. A yearly COVID booster is not such a dark scenario. The only ongoing abject failure with no clear resolution in sight despite a major push by medical thought leaders is in testing - PCR is a great technology but it is the wrong test for public health use to prevent the spreading of SARS-CoV-2. We have paid dearly for this strategic error by both administrations. The anti-vax movement remains a public health threat - a clear and present danger. They are well-organized, have a much louder and more ubiquitous online megaphone than the medical and scientific community, and they are and will remain impervious to high-quality scientific evidence. Fortunately, science is immensely more powerful than magical thinking and anti-science - and the vaccines are indeed saving us from more death and destruction and are clearly and correctly seen by the public as the key to ending the pandemic. Current epidemiologic data support this strongly and reassuringly.
   
• Looking at the problem as a spontaneous pandemic, the next four years should be enough to cope successfully with the virus. 
   
• Looking at the virus as an opportunity holder, the effects this virus will bring with it, could entice the government to keep alive at least in the people's attention.
   
• This is solved medically, remains a political hot potato for a while after.

• The Biden administration has done that the Trump administration did not address:  the production volume issues and "last mile" issues with getting shots into arms. The addition of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine should add to those efforts. Realistically, we will be dealing with adverse effects of the virus well into 2022, but with lifestyle changes resulting from the virus that will endure, it should produce a new, safer public health environment.

3. Tax the Wealthy   With the national debt at stratospheric levels, Biden’s new programs are going to need lots of money and the only source seems to be taxing the wealthy. But proponents of the Modern Monetary Theory contend there is no limit regarding how much money is "printed." This view claims that a deficit is not really a problem. Please estimate the likelihood that taxes are raised to the rates existing before the 2016 tax cut. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = taxes are not raised and 10 = taxes are raised to the prior rates.


Survey Results



































Comments

• Purple state and "blue dog" Democrats will oppose this, and no Republicans will support it.
   
• This really needs to happen or alternatively adopt a stricter regulatory regime to fine companies for potential breaches, and obtain the money that way.
   
• Why do we keep raising taxes when incomes are falling.  We need new mechanisms of raising government revenue.
   
• Taxes will increase and the wealthy will have a higher rate.  Biden’s team has seasoned experts directing fiscal policy, so it is likely competing factions will stay at the table to negotiate a reasonable strategy to cover the revenue needs.


• The rates may not entirely return to 2016 levels but fair and equitable means to fund programs U.S. people require will be implemented. The middle and lower class will be protected from economic tax hardship.
   
• There is increasing recognition that gaping inequality and the K-shaped recovery are weakening the nation and dividing the body politic.
   
• In a recent interview, Bill Gates was suggesting the government should find a way to tax more rich people without depressing growth. I am not sure how much Americans follow Gates but for sure he has an impact on people that belong to his class of fortune.
   
• Above $400K, taxes will increase, below not so much.
   
• The idea that the debt gap can be closed by "taxing the wealthy" makes for good election-year fodder but rarely results in any substantive economic policy because the wealthy have more economic mobility than the 99%. Additionally, the idea fronted by the modern monetary theory that the gap can be closed by increasing the money supply is just an inflationary monetary policy in a new guise. If the past is prologue, it would be a disastrous economic side alley for the economy.
   
   

4. Extend Universal Health Care  Biden plans to expand the ACA (ObamaCare). Will this be opposed by the GOP? Other groups?  Please estimate how likely is the ACA to be improved. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = improvements in the ACA are blocked and 10 = improvements are successful.


Survey Results





































Comments
 

• Will be opposed but the opposition will be fragmented.
   
• The pandemic should have led to this realization.
   
• An expansion of healthcare will be viewed as an additional handout in the form of a tax it will be unfavorable.
   
• Definite success is preserving what can be preserved.  GOP will finally have to come up with an alternative if they are to be taken seriously.  Strict opposition worked when they were in power.  That approach will now lose them any chance of attracting Independent voters.
   
• Needed and Necessary.
   
• Congress continues to oppose increased government spending and involvement in health care. This is a generational betrayal (boomers have their Medicare) and a shameful failure of the American government. Our health care costs and inaccessibility are a national disgrace, The willingness of large masses of lower socioeconomic voters on the right to consistently vote against their own health care (by voting Republican) is a disturbing but consistent finding and undermines any progress on the health care front.  
   
• I suppose Republicans will support the decision either because they see value in this decision and because its cancellation was too much of a “Trumpian” decision.
   
• Congress somewhat blocks some changes, but grudgingly gives ground.
   
• The ACA, as initially conceived, had three legs in the stool: the individual mandate, small business supports, and health co-ops. The individual mandate has been dramatically weakened, the small business support plans were never implemented, and insurance industry lobbies successfully pulled the economic supports for health co-ops. However, congress now has an alignment to strengthen the protection of the individual and tax advantage health plans, the small business option will likely be implemented and spur small business growth, and the co-ops are still enshrined within the ACA. A coalition of states could take the initiative and create health plans that could serve as a national model.
   

 


5. Combat Climate Change  This is going to be tough and costly.  No mention of carbon taxes returned to the public. Will it be opposed by those fearful of economic costs? Please estimate how likely is it that the Biden administration will take major steps to actively address climate change threats.   Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = no action on climate and 10 = the crisis is addressed as best as possible.


Survey Results


































Comments

• There is broad public support, and freezes in the South will help to dislodge even some anti-fact people.
   
• Too many other issues are front and center. This issue is very important but Biden’s administration is overwhelmed and this issue slips.
   
• Needs to happen, look at the disaster in Texas.
   
• Biden will increase funding for hydrogen and electric-powered vehicles.
   
• Some progress, hard-won.  Biden and his team will likely have to invest their political capital for more near-term priorities like COVID relief and filling judicial slots.
   
• Existential and necessary. Climate Change is woven into the economy whether we recognize it or not. Many costs now are not taken into account. Solutions will be chosen to produce new jobs and wealth but it will involve change and thus some resistance.
   
• With science back in the equation, attention to climate change has become a priority. That is not to say doomsday scenarios are accurate or climate change is 100% anthropogenic - science does not tell us that with any measure of certainty. But climate change is a reality and it must be managed as carefully and strategically as possible to build a better future. Despite uncertainties, we must be risk-averse in our strategy, as the stakes are high. This moves the dial toward action and away from denial. With anti-science and conspiracist thinking now out of the White House, the path to action is now clear.
       
• Times are changing. Climate change brings opportunities in long term and it is a theme very beloved by Democrats.
   
• Biden Admin will help, but innovation from the private sector will continue.
   
• The green energy initiatives and some of the government's rollbacks propping up the carbon-based fuel industries are already happening. Global warming should slow. The question is whether the change is significant enough to make a difference.
   

6. Resolve Racism  Biden seems committed to improving the way police treat black people. Can the BLM movement be satisfied? Will the change be resisted?  Please estimate how likely is it that race relations are made equitable. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = no change and 10 = the race problem is eliminated.


Survey Results





































Comments

• With Harris as VP, this issue will get attention, but not solved.
   
• Biden will try cooperation, he won't get it, and then he will act alone. He won't (or shouldn't) care whether this angers the GOP. They have no such concern about Democrats, being WHOLEY in pursuit of power while paying lip service to other values. 
   
• Biden will try but unsuccessfully. A split in the existing Republican Party will open possibilities, however.
   
• Diversity and inclusion are key.
   
• Of the 74 million Trump voters race seems to be a big issue.  Hard to tell the military to kill immigrant populations and then open the border to the same people who were trained to kill.
   
• The Biden Administration will model fairness with appointments, honors, Executive Actions, advocating legislation.  They will likely succeed in winning hearts and minds among the young and immigrants, but probably no among GOP ranks.  Overall, an improvement but not anything like a total resolution.
   
• This will depend almost entirely on Biden's ability to tone down and marginalize the regressive left which has alienated progressives and moderates alike with a neo-racism and neo-segregation agenda that is illiberal. We are sadly witnessing a re-racialization of American society, led by the regressive left. Many outspoken progressives have taken a stand against this and the Democratic Party leadership needs to do so in a clear way. While right-wing racism has long been marginalized and closeted, left-wing racism is freely ascendant and this is a societal problem. Martin Luther King's ideal of judging a person by character and not skin color is being derided and extinguished, to our peril. It is particularly insidious because this neo-racism is coming from a place nobody would have expected it to come from-  the left - and because it is rooted in our universities where we educate the next generation. 
   
• The appointment of Kamala Harris should say all.
   
• Again this is a zero-sum game with two intractable sides.  No one has figured how to reshape the question so that a path forward can be palatable to both sides

7. Pass Immigration Policy    Pathway to citizenship for undocumented persons is taboo for the GOP. Will they block passage?  Or will reason prevail finally? How likely is it a reasonable immigration law passed? Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = no action on immigration and 10 = sound immigration bill is passed.


Survey Results





































Comments

• Immigration as a popular idea may not be favorable if seen as a threat to the American way of life.
   
• The U.S. Public favors this resolution.  And there is growing evidence on the value of immigrants for the U.S. Economy - evidence that is being accepted by Independents.  The range of outcome is 5-9 because there will likely be pushback by voting groups who worry about their livelihoods even as they might support fairness.
   
•  I think this is a matter of the pendulum swinging back to the middle. 
   
• Immigration is somewhat broken, and so both sides will chip around the edges but not fix the core issues.

8. Relieve Political Polarization  How is it possible to relieve the polarization that has the US in political gridlock? Can the two parties learn to compromise? Will Biden anger the GOP by being unilateral?  How likely is polarization to be resolved? Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = polarization continues and 10 = cooperation becomes possible.


Survey Results







































Comments

• The GOP will hide under an independent party while being the same party.  Trump will have the Trumpers of 2020, economic shifts and health will cripple many, and tensions may ease as a result of the necessity to survive.  If Covid did not bring the two parties together maybe national calamity will.
   
• The Republicans are likely to split during the Biden Administration, with one fraction seeking compromise and the other combatting it at every turn.  A split of the GOP and the emergence of a new populist party is one outcome.
   
• Unilateral action by any party angers the opposition. A definition of polarization is frozen in action. In the present moment, unilateral action must be taken to advance and solve problems of the vast majority of U.S. citizens by Democrats if the GOP is obstructionist and unwilling to truly compromise for practical, needed solutions. Inaction causes suffering and will result in poor governance via the lack of it. Long term this reduces U.S. citizen's confidence in government working on their behalf and their willingness to participate civically. Inaction fosters resentment and a feeling of being ignored among citizens. Action can enhance a desire to compromise and promote cooperation via support, or opposition, by citizens in the solutions proposed and implemented.
   
• The internet/social media business model has cast the die. Polarization is promoted and here to stay. Politicians are subject to this as is the general public. 
   
• And the more the public is polarized, the more the politicians in their demagoguery embrace this type of thinking to appeal to the masses and get re-elected.  
   
• Immigration law will pass but not in a way that will put republicans down. This will be more part of a soft policy. I will not be surprised if the president will remove all the nefarious effects of the Trump admin but will not establish full new normality in the short term.
   
• Because of Biden's previous experience in congress and the split in the Senate, the current environment favors bi-partisanship and breaks the partisan logjam that has thwarted some of the government's normal operations past four years.

9. Rebuild Infrastructure   How can this be done without costing $ trillions? Will corporations help? Or will rebuilding be avoided because of cost? How likely is a serious infrastructure rebuilding program agreed on? Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = no action on infrastructure and 10 = sound infrastructure is rebuilt.


Survey Results





















Comments
 

• It could be done using complementary currencies, or via MMT style funding. Both seem unlikely to be adopted by the center-right Democrats. I foresee the US continuing its odd evolution towards a mix of high-tech big cities and third-world rural areas.
   
• Some action, particularly in energy and utilities. Costs are limiting actions.
   
• There will be advancement and funding in high-speed electromagnetic rail, bridges, water, and soil erosion.  We need to break the coal electric agreements that hinder progress.
   
• This could finally happen with the GOP failures and regained capability to present and weigh evidence in public.  The Texas power collapse is only the latest case study in consequences of avoiding the cost of infrastructure maintenance.  If the Biden Administration can make a case for creating jobs and realizing a return on the investment, a serious program becomes likely.  At the Federal level, the GOP cannot block investment by sheer power.  They are reduced to advocating and critiquing.  Key States are controlled by the GOP and could resist throughout.  On balance, infrastructure investment will increase driven somewhat by the acceptance that the U.S. Economy will decline without action.
   
• Lack of will more than lack of funds is the problem. America seems remarkably unperturbed by poor public services and infrastructure which disproportionately affect those of lesser means.  
   
• Money is there, only not equally distributed. Even America needs to rethink and redesign itself redesigns.
   
• This could be also a valid weapon to pacify people and opponents.
   
• The problems with American infrastructure have been known for a long time, with the American Civil Engineering Society giving most infrastructure in America a C grade as early as 2000. Our infrastructure's degraded condition was an open secret among the political class that they, in full awareness, had failed to address for over two decades, when most of the infrastructure was already a decade past its projected serviceable lifetime. It's only become a political issue discussed today because everyone sees that infrastructure is falling apart. We have not seen the political will to address these issues, and until we see a sea change in leadership where infrastructure becomes a kitchen table issue, we will not see improvement.

10. Resume Economic Growth  Will pent-up demand from the recession produce explosive growth in a year or so? What about the growth effects of breakthroughs in AI and other emerging technologies that are likely to appear soon? Will a recession stall the economy? Please estimate how likely is it that the US will see robust economic growth. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = no growth and 10 = 3-4% annual growth.


Survey Results:



Comments
 

• But it won't be enough to offset the structural cancers.
   
• We will print money and take inflation as the lesser of evils.
   
• Technology advances in either economic climate and advances faster in recession as fewer employees force increase technology production, robots, AI, etc.
   
• Some areas will explode to pre-COVID levels, but many will not.  Teleconferencing will continue to replace a. portion of the business travel previously thought essential.  AI and robotics will have a stronger presence in manufacturing going forward.  This can strengthen economic growth, assuming there are markets for the output.  But the loss of job opportunities will potentially weaken economic growth.  Net growth is likely to be stagnant while the competing forces sort themselves out over the next few years. 
   
• Pent-up demand will release economic growth factors, as well as new non-fossil energy to combat climate change, health care, and AI.
   
• A robust economic rebound is a virtual certainty. Note: This does not mean the stock market will continue its meteoric rise, as the rebound has already been priced in. In fact, the market may soon reflect post-rebound stagnation and fall significantly in the short run.
   
• America will win this battle and the virus is the right opportunity holder.
   
• As the Covid-19 hangover slowly recedes.   This is going to be a 10 however socially -- picture a new "Summer of Love'".

11. Equalize Wealth and Income Gaps  Biden is proposing an increase in the minimum wage to $15/hour. What else is possible to help middle- and lower-class incomes? Will this be resisted? Please estimate the likelihood that the wealth gap is narrowed significantly. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = no decrease in the wealth gap and 10 = the gap is reduced substantially.


Survey Results




Comments
 

• Even the $15/hour--which hardly rectifies the effects of inflation these past 40 years--will be opposed by some Democrats and all Republicans.
   
• The rich continue to get richer and the is a great source of public indignation.
   
• Easier said than done.
   
• Negative impact on the wealth gap, increasing minimum wage means nothing if the cost of living increases as well, zero net gain, people still poor.
   
• For the few years of the Biden Administration, resistance from the wealthy will maintain the gap.  But seeds may be planted with legislation that will take root beyond the Biden years.  The wealthy have the power to hold their position.  As a group, they are unlikely to cooperate unless they can preserve a privileged lifestyle while negotiating some reduction in wealth inequality.
   
• There will be resistance but this is absolutely needed.  Better tax equity between income classes, Social Security future funding assurance other policy possibilities likely to help.
   
• Andrew Yang style policies, even on a limited scale, with UBI (Universal Basic Income)in the wake of job displacement by AI/robotics/ manufacturing and post-pandemic permanent (if that results) job losses may be seen.
   
• There is little will to address inequality in the major way it would need to be addressed in order to undo 4 decades of evolution that has slowly and insidiously gutted the middle class and concentrated wealth at the top. The minimum wage may well be increased, but this is a minuscule band-aid at best and will have virtually no effect other than a little positive symbolism. This may in fact impede the process of making the huge structural changes needed to address gaping inequality.
   
• This is another Democrats' battle horse. Yes it will happen but there will other social costs to be paid so that the industry sector will have more free hands for the transition to robot workers

12. Rebuild Global Relations   The US is returning to the Paris Accords, WHO and possibly the Iranian nuclear treaty. What about China? Will it be too hard to repair ties? Or will they welcome us back? Please estimate the likelihood that US global relations are resumed. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = global relations remain broken and 10 = relations are resumed.


Survey Results



Comments
 

• The world now understands that US policy can fundamentally change based on the whims of its current leader. The world will never again rely on the US as it did before. 
   
• Both sides want it but the world is wary.
   
• I think the US is on a collision course with China and Russia because of these countries' hostile state activities.
   
• They (the international community) have lived without US involvement and will continue to do so, China and Russia have developed stronger ties and increased power as a result of Trump reversing course on global engagement.  As America tries to reinsert itself in global politics many countries will complain.
   
• Relations with China will definitely be reestablished.  The Chinese will base their decisions on economic self-interest.  There is no sign there will forego their world view and alter their authoritarian governance.  During the Biden years, we can expect a return to economic cooperation but no breakthrough otherwise.
   
• US global relations can only get better from the Trump nadir, though China will continue to be a challenge under its current leadership.
   
• Enemies as functional to growth. The relation with China could be lessened but Russia is coming up again.
   
• Only because the question spoke about China, which is determined to drive 'authoritarian capitalism' which the US has to strategically oppose.
   

13. Reduce Federal Debt The US debt is over 100 % of annual GDP, the danger point. Is resumed economic growth likely to start reducing the debt?  Is it too late? Will increased costs add more debt? Please estimate the likelihood that debt is reduced substantially. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = no decrease in the debt and 10 = the debt is reduced by several $ trillion.


Survey Results



Comments
 

• Debt will be reduced, the US will have to free Fannie and Freddie as it is a sign of government takeover, bad for the market, there will be a return to zero interest or even negative interest rates for the short term, the US will rely on immigrant wealth to prop up the economy, however, the lure to ancestral lands will be hard to deny.  Many will seek dual citizenship as a right. 
   
• Hard to see how debt reduction can be a priority until we gain control over at least some of our Country’s challenges, starting with COVID.  
   
• Post-COVID, debt should decrease over time.
   
• Debt will not be reduced but is should be interesting to qualify the nature of the debt. Will it be related to the national or foreign market?
   
• There will be continued deficit spending without reductions.  The only way Debt is reduced is in terms of % to GDP (not the actual nominal amount) as we slowly increase GDP.  

14. Gain Public Approval   What are the odds of Biden accomplishing enough to gain good approval ratings? Will all these crises prove to be too much? Can Biden rise to the challenge? Please estimate the likelihood that approval ratings are strong. Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = approval ratings are 0% and 10 = ratings are 100%.



Survey Results



Comments
 

• He has the advantage of being compared to a buffoonish autocrat.
   
• You have to be kidding. We will try to spend our way out of problems.
   
• There are heaven and hell differences between Biden and Trump.
   
• Americans know the incoming President is weak, and just reversing Trump's executive orders is just window dressing.
   
• Biden’s team is skilled and working in the right direction.  Democrats and Independents will judge him by results, and he will deliver some positives.  The present GOP will most likely keep putting sand in the gears and looking for perceived failures to broadcast.  Their ability to succeed in convincing any but the core supporters will diminish if Biden’s team produces a string of successes, from moderate to occasional bell-ringers.
   
• No President gets 100% approval. I do think Biden will be consistently above 50% and possibly in the high 60-70 % range at critical points because of the challenges faced and the challenges met. Look for approvals similar to other Presidents that have faced very challenging times well, or not. This is dependent on the success of new policies among the majority of voters.
   
• We have learned not to underestimate Biden's ability to bring people into the big tent in the middle.  Although it should not be forgotten that 58% of white males and 55% of white females voted for Trump in 2020. 
   
• As a foreigner, I see Biden as the right man at the right time

15.  Improve Cybersecurity and Military Threats   Can Russia, N. Korea, China and other adversaries be deterred?  Maybe the threats are too great. What is the likelihood that these military threats are reduced? Answer on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 = threats continue and 10 = threats are contained.



Survey Results




Comments

• I expect AI tools in the next 4 years to greatly facilitate this, supplemented by quantum-based anti-hacking defenses. (Quantum will be both the basis for hacking RSA encryption, and for generating unhackable defenses.)
   
• Lots of work behind the scenes. Also possible is a full-scale cyberwar.
   
• These will always exist and continue to evolve.
   
• Trump has shown them the back door, The US is vulnerable and will have to live with that condition for a while as the software is universal and available to all governments.
   
• The U.S. is probably back on track making the most of our capabilities in Military and Information Technology.  The Biden years will more of a fair fight in the arms race…which is now extending fast into the IT realm.
   
• Existential and necessary for U.S. National Security and world stability. The cyber threats will continue but the means to contain them will grow significantly. These threats will not be ignored and addressed as needed.
   
• There is no sign that this huge risk will decrease over time, The increasing reliance on computers and the increasing sophistication of cyber-saboteurs bodes ill. The key is in the readiness since it is a matter of when, not if, we will have to deal with a major cyber-attack. 
   
•  We remain the most technologically advanced, and that is a powerful deterrent. Should we lose that technological edge, history from the ancients to the Incas to Imperial Japan, shows us that that is the death knell for hegemons.  
   
• This is an endless battle, with no real winners in the long run.
   
• Threats continue, cyber-attacks continue (although our cybersecurity is and will be greatly improved).  The DPRK can't open its economy -- it would destroy the regime.  Russia is in a similar situation wherein a few powerful men control the levers and have little interest in relinquishing control.  The U.S. lied to Russia about advancing NATO and so the Russians feel little compunction about interfering in the former CIS countries and tweaking American noses from time to time with cyber attacks, or fooling around in the Middle East.

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