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CONTENTS

Economy

New Year holiday spending rose 29% YoY to $127.5 billion and online catering sales surging 135% YoY as more people ordered ready-to-eat meals through e-commerce or online food delivery platforms. Read full article →

365 million parcels delivered in the Spring Festival's first five days, up 224% YoY, according to the State Post Bureau. Read full article →

Spring Festival box office sets a world single-day record, taking more than $266 million nationwide on Friday, and all of China’s top-grossing films were made by Chinese studios. Average ticket prices hit $7.60. One Beijing fan complained (in Chinese) of tickets selling for 150 yuan ($23). Read full article →

TikTok, the global top grossing, non-gaming app, earned $128 million in January, up 380% YoY. 82% came from China. Parent company ByteDance’s 2020 total revenues for all its apps was $37 billion, and competitor Kuaishou’s was $6.3 billion for the first 9 months of 2020. #3 was YouTube: $67 million, #5 Tencent Video: $45 million, #6 Disney+: $17 million. Read full article →

Douyin gives away $232 million of cold cash on Lunar New Year TV show to incentivize people to download the app and tie their bank accounts to its payment gateway. Read full article →

China's consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, declined 0.3% YoY in January, compared with a 0.2-percent increase in December last year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Wednesday. Read full article →

China remains world's largest online retail market for 8th consecutive year: The online retail sales of physical goods in China reached $1.52 trillion dollars in 2020, making the country the world's largest online retail market for eight consecutive years. Read full article →

Total consumption of breakfast food rose from $201 billion in 2015 to $500 billion today. KFC added youtiao, fried dough sticks, in 2008. Soon after, tofu, congee, rice balls, egg rolls and tea leaf eggs were included. Now KFC’s congee is the chain’s number one seller at breakfast in China. Read full article →

China accounted for 3.5% of global GDP in 2000, compared to 17% today, and the SOE share of China’s economy, 25%-35%, is unchanged. Therefore, the share of global GDP produced by China’s SOEs has substantially increased: China’s SOEs account for about 4.5% of global GDP now, compared to about 1% back in 2000. 4.5% of global GDP is more than the entire GDP of the UK, France or India. Read full article →

Chinese banks are trading at low valuations, less than five times forward earnings in the case of China Construction Bank. China Construction Bank has an implied volatility of 20%, compared to Bank of America’s 30%. Yet Bank of America trades at a forward price-earnings ratio of about 14 times earnings, versus. just five times earnings for China Construction Bank. Read full article →

Trade & IP

Great Wall Motors, above, will enter the Thai market after purchasing a GM manufacturing plant after GM pulled out of the Asia-Pacific region. In Thailand, Southeast Asia's largest car market, it will focus on electrified cars to break the stranglehold of Japanese brands, which together hold nearly 90% of the market. Read full article →

Japan’s shipments to China surged 37.5% in January YoY, the largest gain in more than a decade. Chip-making equipment and plastics were at the top of China’s shopping list ahead of its Lunar New Year celebrations, with increases of almost 60%. Read full article →

U.S. farm exports to China will reach $31.5 billion this fiscal year ending Sept. 30, the highest ever. The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its estimate 17% from November, citing a surge in shipments and sales in the quarter from October through December, most notably in corn. Read full article →

The US Chamber of Commerce says US GDP would see a one-time loss of as much as US$500 billion should companies reduce foreign direct investment in China by half. Applying a 25 per cent tariff on all two-way trade would trim US GDP by US$190 billion annually by 2025. Read full article →

China is dramatically increasing the output of biodegradable plastics in response to Beijing's banning disposable plastic bags and straws. BBCA opened a plant capable of producing 50,000 tons of polylactic acid (PLA) polymers a year and plans to reach 700,000 tons annually by 2023.  Read full article →

China’s integrated circuit (IC) market rose 9% to $143.4 billion YoY, but China-headquartered firms made only $8.3 billion of them. 16% of ICs sold in China in 2020 were made locally, mostly made by foreign companies with plants in the country. China has vowed to produce 75% of all the chips it uses by 2025—and it is putting a lot of money behind this goal. Read full article →

China will add 20 IP centers its 60 existing IP protection centers providing companies with easy, efficient and low-cost assistance and reduce processing time and costs involved in IPR disputes, while the fast IPR service centers provide county-level industry clusters quick IPR review, verification and protection. Read full article →

Technology

Chinese probe captures footage of Mars while entering orbit

Postal Savings Bank of China is trialling a biometric  ‘hard wallet’ card for payments and healthcare using digital yuan stored in the hard wallet. The card was developed so consumers can both use the CBDC and access healthcare services digitally without needing a smartphone. Read full article $→

The world’s first commercial self-driving electric bus, Baidu's Apolong, began trial operation in Chongqing. There is no driver, just a touchscreen interface.  Seating 14, it travels 100 kilometers on a charge. In a survey of 1,515 people about  facial recognition in transportation, 75% of are worried about it; 60% say that they are “on alert” about facial recognition; 2% say it doesn’t matter. Read full article $→ 

China’s global share of AI research papers jumped from 4.26%  in 1997 to 27.68% in 2017, surpassing the US. China consistently files more AI patents than any other country. As of 2019, the number of Chinese AI firms has reached 1,189, second only to the U.S., which has more than 2,000 active AI firms. Read full article $→ 

Geely's Taizhou StarSmart satellite factory has been licensed to mass produce 500 satellites per year for communication and navigation. The factory combines the industrialized and automated production model of the automotive industry to create a scalable, flexible and intelligent pulse production line. Read full article $→

A new national lab to promote deep-Earth science and advance detection technologies, under the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, will gather research resources and cooperate with international counterparts in areas like deep structure exploration, deep resource exploration, ultra-deep boreholes, and will promote the sharing of deep-Earth big data and equipment for deep-Earth exploration. Read full article $→

Health

CoronaVac is the safest vaccine, says Brazil, which tried Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Sinopharm. No Sinovac volunteer experienced severe adverse reactions; 20% had mild pain from the injection site; and less than 15% reported headaches, nausea, or tiredness. Read full article $→

WHO says China was Covid-free before December, 2019. In its interim report issued after the team's visit to China, the WHO found no sign of the virus there before December, 2019. Read full article $→

CDC found Covid endemic in the US before December, 2019: 1.4% of all Americans had C-19 antibodies in their systems by mid-December, 2019. Read full article $→  

Europe found Covid before December, 2019. France, Italy, and Spain found both confirmed cases and traces of the virus in late 2019. Read full article $→

Society

Do social hierarchies help build a stronger society? Daniel A. Bell, at Shandong University, discusses Social hierarchies in China.

Many elderly Chinese don’t have drivers' licenses, but that doesn’t stop them from zooming around in electric vehicles resembling golf carts, which people call laotoule, “happy grandpas.” Though they have low maximum speeds, they are technically illegal on roadways. Now cities are cracking down on them because erratic driving and their slow speeds create traffic chaos. Read full article →

Stats, Stats, Stats

Governance

1st Train Leaves Xiong'an HSR Railway Station as Beijing-Xiong'an Intercity Railway Starts Operation.
Beijing created a platform for local government bond information to boost local deb transparency. The China Electronic Local Government Bond Market Access requires local governments to disclose their debt ceiling, balance, bond issuance, projects, debt servicing, major events and other relevant information. Local governments issued $703 billion in new bonds in 2020. Read full article →

Geopolitics

After China imposed 212% tariffs on Australian wine Australia's leading vintner, Treasury Wine Estates, reported half year net profit down 43% to $94 million. Read full article →

Huawei is suing HSBC Bank in the UK as part of its attempt to prevent the extradition of its chief financial officer from Canada to the US. The bank told the BBC the application for disclosure was "without merit". The court hearing in London on Friday draws the bank deeper into a legal battle which has raised tensions between Canada and China. Read full article →

New rules tighten export controls on rare-earth minerals, which every USAF F-35 fighter requires 1,000 lb. of. They are indispensable to the manufacturing of smartphones, electric vehicles, weapon systems, and other advanced technologies. China controls most of the world’s mined output and 90% of the processing industry. Read full article →

While Singapore remains Indonesia’s biggest source of foreign investment, at $9.8 billion last year, Chinese foreign direct investment in Indonesia, including flows from Hong Kong, rose 11% to $8.4 billion last year…while flows from Japan fell 40% in 2020 to $2.6 billion. Read full article →

Defense

The Type 0-55 cruiser, most powerful surface combatant. Its universal vertical launch system supports 4 different types of missiles: HHQ-9 long-range air defense missiles, JY-18 anti-ship missiles, CJ-10 land attack missiles, CT-5 missiles with anti-submarine torpedoes. And enclosed launchers for unspecified torpedoes and anti-submarine rocket launchers. There are 112 launch cells, with 64 forward and 48 cells aft. There is a single H/PJ-38 130 mm dual-purpose naval gun that can engage both air and ground targets and a single H/PJ-11 30 mm eleven-barreled Close In Weapon System (CIWS), mounted forward, and a single HHQ-10 short-range air defense missile system. Maximum speed is 30 knots (56 km/h) and range is 5,000 nautical miles (9,300 km). Each Type 055 costs $900 million. Read full article $→

LONG READS

Cuba and China

Does China Help Cuba?

Donald Canton

In the 1960s, the main forms of the Chinese assistance offered to Cuba were preferential trade and interest-free loans. From 1961 to 1965, China gave Cuba an interest-free loan of 60 million U.S. dollars. The two sides signed the China-Cuba Economic Cooperation Agreement, Trade and Payment Agreement, and Technology Cooperation Protocol. According to the agreement, the interest-free loan provided by China was used for Cuba to purchase complete sets of Chinese technical equipment. China purchased 1 million tons of raw sugar from Cuba and trained 200 Cuban technicians in China.

In order to support Cuba’s self-reliance, China actively recommended and dispatched agricultural experts and rice planting experts to Cuba to guide Cuban farmers in planting rice, and achieved good results. In order to break the radio blockade imposed by the United States against Cuba, the Chinese government promptly sent experts to escort and install high-power transmitters, transmission stations and power generation equipment donated to Cuba, so that Cuba’s Latin American News Agency can continue to maintain communication with the outside world.

In February, 1963, the Chinese government decided to use China’s trade surplus in 1962 and 1963 as a long-term interest-free loan to Cuba. In December 1964, the governments of China and Cuba signed the second trade and payment agreement (1965-1970) and the 1965 trade agreement. According to the agreement, China will provide Cuba with rice, soybeans, fat, canned meat, chemical products, machinery and equipment and other commodities for a long time, while Cuba will export raw sugar, nickel ore, copper ore, etc. to China. In bilateral trade, the Chinese government had taken care of Cuba in terms of food prices and trade balances with obvious aid nature.

Under the principles of equality and mutual benefit, emphasis on practical results, diversified forms, and common development, China had actively carried out economic and technological cooperation involving agriculture, energy, transportation, education and many other fields. In terms of specific forms of assistance, small-scale technical cooperation projects are the mainstay, with China providing demonstration equipment and sending experts to the recipient country to teach technology. At the same time, it also invited personnel from the recipient country to study and conduct technical training in China. In terms of financial assistance, in addition to providing interest-free loans, a new form of assistance emerged in the late 1990s.

At the end of 1987, the Cuban Communist Party took the initiative to meet with relevant persons of the Chinese Communist Party and proposed to restore relations between the two parties. The two parties subsequently agreed to exchange delegations between the two parties’ foreign institutions to take the first step in restoring Sino-Cuban relations.

China has invested heavily in Cuba to improve Cuba’s basic transportation facilities and power supply. As of 2004, China had agreed to invest US$500 million in Cuba’s industrial facilities; in this project, Cuban producers hold 51% of the shares, and the Chinese government’s Minmetals Corporation holds 49%. The project is covered by China Export Credit Insurance. China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation signed an agreement with Cuban state-owned oil company to cooperate in the development of petroleum resources. In early 2006, Cuba signed a contract with China to purchase 1,000 buses to improve transportation within the city and across provinces and cities. The Cuban government purchased 30,000 refrigerators from China to replace the old models. In mid 2006, Cuba purchased 100 railway locomotives from China for 130 million US dollars. China and Cuba signed an agreement at the end of 2005 to cooperate in the development of biotechnology in three to five years. As of 2007, the two countries had a total of about 200 scientific and technological cooperation projects.

In summary, Cuba has sought aid from China for years. Cuba and China increased collaboration in telecommunications of Computerization and Cybersecurity after signing a memorandum of understanding in July, 2014. As a result, Cuban human resources in this field have received training in China, and cooperation between Chinese tech companies and their Cuban counterparts has increased over the past few years. In December 2019, the two countries held the first China-Cuba Internet Forum in Havana, hosted by the Cyberspace Administration of China and the Cuban Ministry of Communications, to share experiences in internet governance, network management, among other topics. Cuba is expected to continue strengthening participation in the Chinese Belt & Road Initiative because of the importance of China’s Digital Silk Road as a multilateral platform for promoting the economic and technological development of the participating countries.

China has participated with infrastructure and technical assistance in the process of computerization of the Cuban society. Depending on how much the Cuban government would like to reform and open its market economy, China is ready to help. [1] China’s role has been in providing capital and technology as China often is willing to take risks despite economic uncertainty created by the ongoing U.S. economic embargo. [2] More information is available until next time. Donald Canton


Katherine Mulholland adds: 

Cuba opted to join the Belt and Road Initiative in 2019 to help its sanctioned economy. “We hope to get involved in this project in the most committed way possible, and that this means the Chinese business sector participates more actively in the process of updating our economic model,” Orlando Hernández, president of Cuba’s Chamber of Commerce, said of the BRI.

Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla, Cuba’s foreign minister, has reiterated that Chinese policies on trade and investment in Latin America are “highly appreciated” because they are “respectful of international law, and the independence and sovereignty of countries.” Several Chinese companies specialising in biopharmaceutics and renewable energy have begun settling in the Mariel Special Development Zone, a budding investment hub in Cuba. Further reading:

[1] https://www.beltandroad.news/2020/10/30/collaboration-with-china-important-to-cuba/
[2] China’s BRI in Latin America: Case Study – Sustainable Energy in Cuba

War With China

Playing War Games with China
 

Fifty years ago, Richard Nixon decided to ignore Napoleon’s advice to “let [China] sleep, for when it wakes it will astonish the world.”[1]  I was there when China opened its eyes.  And I have watched it transform the various orders of the world and become an American obsession.

Every generation of Americans feels obliged to reinvent the China policies it inherits from its predecessor.  We can be sure our country will eventually get its policies right – after we’ve exhausted all the alternatives.  But we have not yet done so.  And, for many reasons, our latest policies toward China are almost certain to prove self-defeating.

We have just exited the most bizarre presidency in our history.  One of its distinguishing characteristics was the substitution in our foreign relations of unrestricted economic warfare for diplomacy.  Bluster and bullying replaced dialogue and reason aimed at convincing the recalcitrant to see that it could be in their interest as well as ours for them to do things our way.

In the last half of the last century, we Americans made the rules.  Others got into the habit of following us.  To some extent, that habit – though fading – has outlasted our adherence to the principles we once stood for.  So military posturing, economic intimidation, diatribe, and attempted regime change are becoming the norm in international relations.  China is a case in point.  Sino-American relations now exemplify Freeman’s third law of strategic dynamics: for every hostile act there is an even more hostile reaction.

Americans have an inbuilt missionary impulse.  We enjoy protecting, tutoring, lecturing, and hectoring other peoples on how to correct their character to approximate our idealized image of ourselves.  We are offended when others insist on independence from us and on preserving their own political culture.  China has never wavered in its determination to do both, wishful thinking by American politicians and pundits notwithstanding.

In America’s pas de deux with China, we have consistently been the initiator of the dance and taken the lead.  We developed some well-founded complaints about Chinese economic behavior, so we launched a trade war with it.  We were alarmed about China’s potential to outcompete us internationally, so we decided to try to cripple it with an escalating campaign of “maximum pressure.”  We saw China as a threat to our continued military primacy, so we sought to contain and encircle it. 


Cumulatively, we have:

  • declared China to be an adversary and called for regime change in Beijing;
  • launched an invective-filled global propaganda campaign against China, its ruling Communist Party, and its fumbled initial response to COVID-19;
  • sanctioned allies and partners for failing to curtail their own dealings with China;
  • replaced market-driven trade with China with government management of economic exchanges based on tariffs, quotas, sanctions, and export bans;
  • abandoned or attempted to sabotage international organizations in which we deemed Chinese influence to be greater than ours;
  • kneecapped the WTO, trashing the rule-bound order for international economic relations we had taken seven decades to elaborate;
  • attempted to block Chinese investment and lending in third countries;
  • blacklisted Chinese companies and delisted them on our stock markets;
  • curtailed visas, criminalized scientific exchanges, and banned technology exports to China;
  • closed a Chinese consulate (losing one of our own as a result) and initiated tit-for-tat reductions in reporting by journalists;
  • sought to terminate Chinese sponsorship of language teaching in our country, and discouraged in-country study by potential federal employees;
  • reidentified the United States with Beijing’s civil war adversary in Taipei and violated the Taiwan-related terms of U.S. normalization with Beijing;
  • stepped up provocative air and sea patrols along China’s borders; and
  • begun to reconfigure both our conventional and nuclear forces to fight a war with China in its near seas or on its claimed and established territory.

These actions have gotten China’s attention, much as they got Japan’s when we applied a range of considerably less hostile measures to it in 1941.  Japan reacted by attacking Pearl Harbor.  China has not yet lost its cool.  But it has:

  • reciprocated U.S. tariffs and sanctions;
  • begun to diversify its sources of essential agricultural and industrial products to end dependence on the United States, which it now regards as its supplier of last resort;
  • broadened and accelerated its effort to become scientifically and technologically self-reliant and independently innovative;
  • courted countries and international organizations alienated by U.S. unilateralism;
  • created new international institutions to complement existing bodies, in which it is now increasingly assertive;
  • refocused its foreign policy toward the development of cooperative relationships with Europe, Southeast and West Asia, Africa, and Latin America;
  • joined other countries aggravated by unilateral U.S. sanctions based on dollar hegemony in seeking a new world monetary order in which the dollar is no longer the dominant medium of trade settlement;
  • adopted an obnoxiously uncivilized demeanor in its foreign relations while remaining risk averse on issues like Taiwan and U.S. naval harassment of its presence in the South China Sea; and
  • continued to modernize its military to fend off and defeat an American attack on its homeland or near seas.

If this were a game of chess, we’d be easy to spot.  We’re the player with no plan beyond an aggressive opening move.  That is not just not a winning strategy.  It’s no strategy at all.  The failure to think several moves ahead matters.  The protracted struggle we have launched with China is not a board game, but something vastly more serious.  It is not in any respect a repeat of our victorious competition with the sclerotic USSR.  And the days when we could act internationally without incurring consequences are past.
 

So far in the contest with China, not so good.

Our farmers have lost most of their $24 billion market in China, perhaps permanently.  Our companies have had “to accept lower profit margins, cut wages and jobs for U.S. workers, defer potential wage hikes or expansions, and raise prices for American consumers or companies.”[2]  Our tariff increases and turn to government-managed trade have cost an estimated 245,000 American jobs,[3] while shaving something like $320 billion off our GDP.[4]   On average, American families are paying as much as $1,277 more each year for everything from apparel and shoes to toys, electronic goods, and household appliances.[5]

In 2017, when we launched the first of our wave of economic attacks on China, our trade deficit with it was $375 billion.  Last year, it appears to have fallen to about $295 billion.  Over the same period, however, our global trade deficit rose from $566 billion to an estimated $916 billion. This reflects a shift of Chinese production to Taiwan, the EU, Southeast Asia, Mexico, and elsewhere.  There has been almost no “reshoring” of the industrial jobs American companies originally outsourced to China.  According to an Oxford Economics study, if the Biden administration leaves current policies in place, the United States can expect cumulative job losses of 320,000 by 2025, and our GDP will be $1.6 trillion less than it would otherwise be.[6]

As is normal in wars, whether economic or military, the other side has also taken some casualties, but they appear to have been considerably lighter than ours.  China’s overall trade surplus last year rose to a new high of $535 billion.  Beijing improved its international position by lowering tariff barriers to imports from sources other than the United States, striking free trade deals with other Asian countries and the EU, and helping to sponsor a trade dispute-settlement mechanism to replace the US-sabotaged WTO.  China is expected to contribute one-third of global growth this year.  It is becoming an innovation powerhouse.  Forty percent of global venture capital investments are now Chinese – on a par with our own.

The U.S. focus has been on tripping up China rather than improving our own international competitiveness.  This is an expression of complacent hubris rather than a plan.  It is a sure way to lose ground, not gain it.  The United States continues to disinvest in education, infrastructure, and science.  We are making no effort to curtail the anti-competitive impact of domestic oligopolies or reform the corporate culture that drives companies to offshore work instead of retaining and retraining American workers to use more efficient technologies.  Our country is more closed to foreign talent and ideas than ever before.  The United States is still among the most innovative societies on the planet, but others are overtaking us.  It does not help that we have come to value financial engineering more than the real thing.

Recent polling shows that most of the world now sees our political system as broken, our governance as incompetent, our economic and racial inequalities as perniciously debilitating, our policies as domineering, and our word as unreliable.  Ranting and raving about China’s initial mishandling of the outbreak in Wuhan a bit over a year ago of a previously unknown coronavirus has not made the world less impressed by Beijing’s amazing ability to recover from a bungled start and counter and control the pandemic on its territory.[7]  Nor has it obscured the contrast between China’s performance and the catastrophically incompetent U.S. response to the virus.  Even our closest allies, partners, and friends now expect China to surpass us in wealth and power within the decade.  Last year, in the culmination of a trend that preceded the pandemic, China passed the United States to become the world’s largest recipient of foreign companies’ investments.   If we do not fix our domestic embarrassments, other countries may come to see us as a problem to be avoided rather than a partner to be courted.

 

Meanwhile, China has not broken stride. 

Its students’ performance in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) is already among the best in the world.  It is investing 8 percent more each year in education.  China already accounts for one-fourth of the world’s STEM workforce and is widening its lead.  Measured in purchasing power, its investment in science is now almost on a par with our own and rising at an annual rate of 10 percent, as ours continues to fall.  China’s infrastructure is universally envied.  It already accounts for 30 percent of the world’s manufactures, versus our 16 percent, and the gap is growing.  Last year it became the world’s largest consumer market.  Its economy is, for the most part, not dominated by monopolies or oligopolies, but fragmented and ferociously competitive.

In short, China has many problems, but it has its act together and appears, by and large, to be on top of them.

China’s principal challenge to us is not military but economic and technological.   But our country is geared up to deal only with military threats.  So, China has become both the antidote to our post-Cold War enemy deprivation syndrome and a gratifying driver of U.S. defense spending.  If you think you’re St. George, everything looks like a dragon.  We have been unable to tame China, so we now dream of slaying it.  The dragon is alert to this.  We are in China’s face.  It is not in ours.  Not yet anyway.  But if you go abroad in search of dragons to arouse, they may eventually follow you home.

There are American aircraft and ships aggressively patrolling China’s borders, but no Chinese aircraft and ships off ours.  American bases ring China.  There are no Chinese bases near us.  Still, we are upping our defense budget to make our ability to overwhelm China’s defenses more credible.  We do so in the name of deterring Chinese aggression against China’s Asian neighbors.  But military assault is not the threat from China that agitates its neighbors.

The countries of the Indo-Pacific are universally apprehensive about China’s increasingly bullying demands for deference, but none fears Chinese conquest.  We are distraught that we can no longer breeze through China’s increasingly effective defenses to strike it.  We have counted on being able to do so if the unfinished civil war with the newly democratized descendant of Chiang Kai-shek’s regime in Taiwan resumes.  We seem to think that a war with China over Taiwan could be limited like Korea and Vietnam.  But such a war would begin on Chinese territory and be fought directly with Chinese forces, not in third countries or by allies or proxies of either China or the United States.

It’s comforting to assume that we are so powerful that, if we strike another people’s homeland, they will refrain from retaliating against ours.  We prefer not to think about China’s capacity to reach out and hurt us, including with nuclear weapons, if we hurt it.  But this is delusional and it misses the point.  We cannot hope to deal with China’s politico-economic, diplomatic, and technological challenge by engaging it in armed combat or threatening to do so. We cannot outspend it militarily.  And we can no longer hope to beat it on its home ground.

Rivalry, in which each side competes to outdo another, can raise the competence of those engaged in it.  So, it is potentially beneficial.  But adversarial antagonism, in which competitors seek to win by hamstringing each other, is not.  It entrenches hostility, justifies hatred, injures, and threatens to weaken both sides.

If we are to compete effectively with China and other rising and resurgent powers, we must upgrade many aspects of our performance.  This will require a serious effort at domestic reform and self-strengthening.  And it will take time.  Trying to bring down foreign countries to prevent them from surpassing us is more likely to backfire than to succeed.  We need to take a hard look at where we are falling behind and make the changes necessary to power ahead.

The United States is endowed with unexampled geopolitical, human, ideological, and physical advantages.  With the right policies, we can outcompete any challenger, however formidable.  But, if we seek to hamstring our competitors, we should expect them to respond in kind.  If we treat China as our Nemesis, China has the capacity to become Her.

In the third decade of the 21st century, Americans can no longer reliably command international support for our preferred approaches to international issues.  Others have come to doubt the wisdom, propriety, and constancy of our policies and suspect they are formulated without taking their interests into account.

Many countries are apprehensive about the growth of China’s wealth and power.  But – without exception — they want multilateral or plurilateral backing to balance and cope with this challenge, not unilateral, confrontational American activism.  They seek to expand trade with China, not contract it.  They want to accommodate China on terms that maximize their own independent sovereignties, not make China an enemy or reinstate America as their overlord.

If the United States persists in defining our contest with China in confrontational bilateral terms, we will find ourselves increasingly isolated.  Given the unconvincing state of our democracy at present, if we misdefine our China policy as an effort to combat authoritarianism, we will alienate, not attract most other nations.  Only if we are willing to be a team player and can credibly claim to be serving the interests of partner powers as well as our own will they stand behind us in support of perceived common interests.

China is an increasingly formidable world power with interests that range from some that parallel ours to others that are antithetical, and still others that are of no consequence to us.  We should treat China as the disparate bundle of challenges it is.  There are many issues of concern to us that cannot be effectively addressed without Chinese participation.  We need to leverage Chinese capacities that serve our interests and counter or immobilize those that don’t.  Specifically, we should:

  • stop pushing China and Russia together in opposition to us;
  • let market forces – rather than paranoid plutocrats, xenophobic politicians, and ideological crackpots – play the major part in governing trade and investment;
  • create a predictable framework for trade with China in strategically sensitive sectors, like semiconductors, that safeguards U.S. defense interests while taking advantage of China’s contributions to global supply chains;
  • compete with China and other countries for influence in international organizations, rather than withdrawing from them because we can no longer dominate them;
  • seek to cooperate with China to address planetwide problems of common concern like:
  • the mitigation of climate and environmental degradation;
  • the reinforcement of global capacity to respond to pandemics and other public health challenges;
  • the inhibition and, if possible, reversal of nuclear proliferation;
  • the reconstruction of a globally agreed framework to manage the international transfer of goods, services, and capital;
  • the maintenance of global economic growth amid financial stability;
  • the healthy development of the world’s poorer countries;
  • the setting of standards for new technologies and competition in new strategic domains; and
  • the reform of global governance.


We should:

  • work with China and others to ease the now inevitable transition from dollar hegemony to a multilateral monetary order in ways that preserve maximum American influence and independence;
  • leverage, not boycott, China’s “Belt and Road Initiative,” to ensure that we benefit from the business opportunities and connectivities it creates;
  • promote cross-Strait negotiations and mutual accommodation rather than military confrontation between Beijing and Taipei;
  • expand consular relations, restore journalistic exchanges, and promote Chinese language and area studies to enhance both our presence and our understanding of China.

China and the United States began 2021 in different moods.  This year, China will celebrate the 100th anniversary of its ruling Communist Party.  Chinese associate the Party with the astonishingly rapid transformation of their country from a poor and beleaguered nation to a relatively well off and strong one.  Most Chinese have set aside their traditional pessimism and are optimistic that the enormous progress they have experienced in their lifetimes will continue.  China’s decisive handling of the pandemic has bolstered its citizens faith in its system.  Morale is high.  China is focused on the future.

By contrast, the United States entered this year in an unprecedented state of domestic disarray and demoralization.  A plurality of Americans disputes the legitimacy of the newly installed Biden administration, which faces an uphill battle with a Congress well-practiced at gridlock and evading its constitutional responsibilities.  Despite a booming stock market supported by cheap money and chronic deficit spending, we are in an economic depression.  So far, our answer to this has been limited to subsidizing consumption rather than investing in the rejuvenation of our political economy through attention to infrastructure, education, and reindustrialization.  We have our eyes fixed firmly on the immediate, rather than the long term.  But, without serious repairs to restore a sound American political economy, our future is in jeopardy, and we will be in no condition to compete with the world’s rising and resurgent great powers, especially China.

Doubling down on military competition with Beijing just gives its military-industrial complex a reason to up the ante and call our bluff.  An arms race with China leads not to victory but to mutual impoverishment.  As President Eisenhower reminded us sixty years ago, “every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.”  And stoking China’s neighbors’ dependency on us rather than helping them become more self-reliant implicates them in our conflicts of interest with China without addressing their own.  They need our diplomatic support even more than our military backing to work out a stable modus vivendi with China, which is not going away.

Our China policy should be part of a new and broader Asia strategy, not the main determinant of our relations with other Asian nations or the sole driver of our policies in the region.  And to be able to hold our own with China, we must renew our competitive capacity and build a society that is demonstrably better governed, better educated, more egalitarian, more open, more innovative, and healthier as well as freer than all others.

To paraphrase Napoleon, let China take its own path while we take our own.  We need to fix our own problems before we try to fix China’s.  If we Americans get our priorities right, we can once again be the nation to rise and astonish the world.  

[1]Looking at a map of the world and, pointing at China, the newly crown Emperor Napoleon said “Ici repose un géant endormi, laissez le dormir, car quand il s’éveillera, il étonnera le monde.”   He repeated the thought during his exile on St. Helena: “Laissez donc la Chine dormir, car lorsque la Chine s’éveillera le monde entier tremblera.”

[2] More pain than gain: How the US-China trade war hurt America, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/08/07/more-pain-than-gain-how-the-us-china-trade-war-hurt-america/

[3] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-jobs/u-s-china-trade-war-has-cost-up-to-245000-u-s-jobs-business-group-study-idUSKBN29J2O9

[4] “Trump’s China Buying Spree Unlikely to Cover Trade War’s Costs,” Bloomberg Economics, December 18, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-18/trump-s-china-buying-spree-unlikely-to-cover-trade-war-s-costs

[5] https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56073

[6] https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2021/01/15/10595900/us-to-face-heavy-economic-losses-if-trade-war-with-china-continues

[7] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30800-8/fulltext

Ambassador Chas W. Freeman, Jr. (USFS, Ret.). Visiting Scholar, Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University. By video link, Washington, D.C.  11 February 2021

Bayoneting Babies

Atrocity Propaganda 

Fear, Hate & Anger – a diet to die for!

Hugh Steadman

In Ideology I Ideology II, I described the background to the ideological war between Eastern communalism and western ‘democracy. ’  China, under the CCP, seems confident in its direction and in the demonstrable success of its endeavour to make China a better place for its citizens. It appears to welcome the fact that through trade, other nations are also enriched by its progress.

From the CCP’s viewpoint, if the success of a single-party, socialist/capitalist hybrid impresses other nations to the extent that they wish to follow China’s example, so much the better. However, China maintains a strict policy of non-interference in other nations’ affairs and does not attempt to force its system on anyone living outside its borders.

The Chinese system is built around the principle of the wellbeing of the community being of greater concern to their government than the well-being of any one of its individual members. The western nations, in the Christian tradition, have a quite contrary view of the relationship of the individual to society as a whole. Leading western nations seek to minimize the involvement of the state in the lives of their citizens, while allowing them the maximum freedom to act as they would within, what are for the wealthy, ever less-restrictive guidelines. At the extremes, such as are to be found in the USA, untrammeled capitalists can enjoy huge personal freedom at the expense of fellow citizens and other nations.

Under the western model, interest groups tend to coalesce into several competing parties. Progress is seen to result from adversarial struggle rather than consensus. In such societies the wealthy tend to gain political control, which they exercise to their own selfish advantage. A chasm can develop between the life opportunities at the two ends of the wealth scale. This chasm weakens a society’s resilience in the face of adversity, such as climate change is soon to inflict on everyone. Compare the USA and UK’s failure in dealing with the Covid crisis with the success of China and Vietnam!

In addition, the western Christian tradition is one of proselyting. Just as they seek dominion over nature as promised to them in their holy books, leading ‘Christian’ nations seek actively to persuade other nations to follow their system of government. Once again, the wealthy nations that came first to industrialisation were hugely advantaged. These wealthy capitalist societies were well placed to exploit the poorer late-comers to industrialisation. Of the thirty-seven members of the OECD, South Korea stands out as the only nation which is neither predominantly white, nor has a history of imperial conquest. Only South Korea, Japan, Israel and Turkey are not predominantly Christian.

The early to industrialise and mainly western, capitalist nations, as they struggled to determine which of their empires should have dominion over the rest of the world, were never challenged in their supremacy – except from within their own ranks. Ultimately, the USA, emerging victorious and enriched, rather than scarred, from the conflicts with Japan and Germany, was left to lead the others in defeating the sole serious ideological contender to capitalism. The communist USSR that had been so exhausted in its successful struggle with the thousand-year Reich, finally succumbed. For a couple of decades the USA was left to dictate as it saw fit as sole superpower in a unipolar world.

 

Hubris

In their hubris, the USA and its western allies failed to notice that China, which though communist, was an economic basket-case and offered no threat to anyone, had quietly learned a lesson from Russia’s demise. Initially, as China set about converting its communist system into a socialist/capitalist hybrid, western capitalism saw nothing in the change other than a golden opportunity to move in and profitably exploit the vast pool of impoverished labour that had then come onto the open market.

It has only been in the last decade that Western political elites have awoken to the fact that the single-party socialist hybrid, arisen from the ashes of Marxist theory, was about to become a highly effective, technological and economic competitor. Though showing no inclination for territorial expansion or for military competition with the American empire in the west, the CCP’s obvious success represented an ideological challenge to the exploitative western capitalist system.  

Dependent on military force and promises of ‘freedom’ and ‘democracy’ to create the conditions among lesser developed countries in which its profit extraction could flourish , the west behaved with cynical pragmatism when required to  support unfree and undemocratic regimes in pursuit of the extraction of profits and the containment of ideological challengers.

Though Russia, as potential prey, was no longer an ideological challenger, western vindictiveness forced it into alliance with China. Western capitalism feeding off the carcass of Yeltsin’s defeated USSR, never forgave Putin for bringing the party to a premature close. Both China and Russia are therefore, regarded as a single enemy to be defeated and if possible, for ease of digestion, dismembered.

As in the previous wars for empire: so in the current confrontation. The first requirement of the ruling elites was to ensure the obedience and consent of their own citizenry, who were required to sacrifice lives and livelihoods to the struggle. Out of the pyrotechnic rehearsals of the two World Wars, has developed a most sophisticated propaganda machine. In these wars, in which the continued existence of the rulers was threatened, the propaganda grew increasingly shrill and ever further removed from objective truth. 

The current carefully coordinated and rising storm of western anti-Chinese and anti-Russian sentiment being placed before and duly ingested by western populations is an indication of the extent to which, as in the wars against Germany and Japan, the West’s ruling elites now feel themselves to be under existential threat. They require that their populations are of the same opinion.

 

Atrocity Propaganda

Hence we are starting to see a spate of atrocity propaganda comparable to that of the Bosche’s bayoneting of Belgian babies. Much is made of clearly faked reports of Russia’s use of nerve-agents to poison opposition leaders. (Why could the Russian state not produce a lethal nerve agent on its second attempt?) Repeatedly, western audiences hear of the brutal suppression of the Hong-Kong separatist protesters inspired by the USA’s National Endowment for Democracy. (No mention that no one was killed in the process of ending the violent insurrection.) Genocide in the Chinese province of Xinjiang and the systematic rape of Uighur women is another favorite theme  that according to  Biden’s first conference call with China’s president , we will soon be hearing even more of. 

Though the West is only too familiar with Islamist terrorism (which is primarily a product of western nations’ aggressive actions beyond their borders,) there is no sympathy with the Chinese government’s humane and well thought out campaign to eliminate the danger from within its own borders.  No such obvious comparisons are drawn between for instance, China’s reactions to its Islamist insurrection in Xinjian with the British reaction to a Catholic uprising in Northern Ireland. No comparison is drawn between the Maze and the H-Blocks with Chinese reeducation centers. The same with the role played by Gadhafi in encouraging the Provos compared with that now being played by the USA in encouraging the Uighur and Hong-Kong insurrections.

When called on by their governments, the  war-mongering propaganda system is now so well established that the western media seem happy to promote whatever view of the ’enemy’ their government agencies desire. The sound of breaking glass, as dwellers in glass houses throw stones, is deafening.

In drawing comparisons between the two systems the stone-throwers’ misdemeanors should also be considered. The Afghani wedding parties struck by US drones: the 500,000 Iraqi children dead as a result of US-inspired sanctions, the multiple deaths caused by US ally, India, in its violent repression of Kashmir, its Israeli ally in the Middle East, or its Saudi ally in Yemen should also be tallied. The list can go on endlessly – and nowhere has the evil empire of China dropped a single bomb on anyone!

The central tenet of the west’s prevailing doctrine of neo-liberalism is that the State’s involvement in citizens’ lives should be minimised and as many state functions as possible should be privatised. In the USA, as the nation furthest advanced down this path, the lobby for profit-making out of the privatised ‘security’ industries, with its vested interest in war and preparations for war, has become so powerful that it has now taken over the state’s legislature and executive. Until global public opinion can persuade the USA to bring its now rampant militarisation under control, there is no prospect of global confrontation being replaced by cooperation in international relationships.

This is a time, as none before, when the whole of humanity faces existential peril. It is a time when the nations of the world need to support each other and collaborate in meeting the threats of nuclear war, climate change and pandemics. Madly, at this time of peril for all life on Earth, the US and its western allies are preparing for nuclear war, striving to disrupt and dominate other nations and do all in their power to inspire hate and minimise cooperation between the western bloc and those nations that refuse to kowtow.

 

Reading List

This blog will offend everything that many western readers have been taught to ‘know.’ Before passing judgement on such an important matter, readers should take an hour or two and follow the hyperlinks below – the last of which ‘Terminus,’ is certainly the most important:

Biden & Xi  Biden talks to Xi. This Reuters report would tend to endorse the arguments made in the above blog and reveal the gravity of the situation. No matter whatsoever President may reign; the MIC shall still be Vicar of Bray. 5 minute read.

Atrocious  Brief history of atrocity propaganda. 5 minute read.

BBC porkies Mass, ‘systematic’ rapes in Xinjian and western reactions to the frightful news. 4 minute read.

Rebuttal  Chinese rebuttal of the BBC’s multiple Sinophobic claims. 10 minute read

 Xinjiang tourist  Chinese reply to western propaganda: a Canadian Chinese visits to see for himself. 19 minute watch.

Freedom fighters Chinese report on the seriousness of Al-Qaida inspired terrorism and the counter-measures that, much to the relief of the people of Xinjiang, seem now to have succeeded. 50 minute watch.

Complex problem How American militarisation impacts on western policy-making. 4 minute read.

Profiteering Inside the Deep State machinery – the power of the MIC. This is a Canadian site and Sorensen a US citizen. 7 minute read.

Confrontation Justification (or otherwise) of the West’s accusations against China. 5 minute read.

Place your bets  A US academic compares the two systems and concludes China will out-compete the USA. 4 minute read.

Survey of the oppressed  Harvard survey of Chinese ‘satisfaction.’ 2 minute read.

Yemen If only the USA were as concerned about the Muslims of Yemen as it seems to be about those of Xinjiang! 3 minute read.

Terminus Where this has all come from and where it is all leading. Everyone exposed to western media is being bathed in lies intended to win their acquiescence to a war designed to grant American elites dominion over all nations on Earth (if any manage to survive the inevitable holocaust!) 30 minute read.
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Weekly Debunk

New York Times "Selectively Misquotes" Scientists To Fit Its "Prescribed Narrative"


The Times: On W.H.O. Trip, China Refused to Hand Over Important Data
The information could be key to determining how and when the outbreak started, and to learning how to prevent future pandemics.
Chinese scientists refused to share raw data that might bring the world closer to understanding the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, independent investigators for the W.H.O. said on Friday.The investigators, who recently returned from a fact-finding trip to the Chinese city of Wuhan, said disagreements over patient records and other issues were so tense that they sometimes erupted into shouts among the typically mild-mannered scientists on both sides.
China’s continued resistance to revealing information about the early days of the coronavirus outbreak, the scientists say, makes it difficult for them to uncover important clues that could help stop future outbreaks of such dangerous diseases.
“If you are data focused, and if you are a professional,” said Thea Kølsen Fischer, a Danish epidemiologist on the team, then obtaining data is “like for a clinical doctor looking at the patient and seeing them by your own eyes.”
...
Peter Daszak, a member of the W.H.O. team and the president of EcoHealth Alliance in New York, said the trip was emotionally draining, as he and the team came to terms with the trauma of the early days of the pandemic. The team interviewed some of the first people to fall ill with Covid-19 in Wuhan, as well as medical workers.
“The world doesn’t realize, you know, that they were the first to get this thing,” Dr. Daszak said, “and they didn’t know how bad it was.”
While the Times claims that the Chinese have more data than they provided (they don't) and insinuates that they have something to hide, the researchers quoted in its piece reject both as nonsense.
Linking the NYT propaganda piece Peter Daszak refuted its basic tone:
Peter Daszak @PeterDaszak - 11:27 UTC · Feb 13, 2021This was NOT my experience on @WHO mission. As lead of animal/environment working group I found trust & openness w/ my China counterparts. We DID get access to critical new data throughout. We DID increase our understanding of likely spillover pathways.
New data included env. & animal carcass testing, names of suppliers to Huanan Market, analyses of excess mortality in Hubei, range of covid-like symptoms for months prior, sequence data linked to early cases & site visits w/ unvetted live Q&A etc. All in report coming soon!

Quoting Daszak's tweet Thea Fischer pitched in:

Thea K Fischer, Prof. i PH Virus Inf. og Epidemier @TheaKFischer - 14:03 UTC · Feb 13, 2021This was NOT my experience either on the Epi-side. We DID build up a good relationsship in the Chinese/Int Epi-team! Allowing for heated arguments reflects a deep level of engagement in the room. Our quotes are intendedly twisted casting shadows over important scientific work.

bigger

To which Daszak responded:

Peter Daszak @PeterDaszak - 14:07 UTC · Feb 13, 2021
Replying to @TheaKFischerHear! Hear! It's disappointing to spend time w/ journalists explaining key findings of our exhausting month-long work in China, to see our colleagues selectively misquoted to fit a narrative that was prescribed before the work began. Shame on you @nytimes !
Read More.. 

Covid Conspiracy?

The Covid Conspiracy Of Silence

Godfree Roberts

Popular culture, competence, justice, values, and the dream of betterment may have been the pillars on which the USA’s soft power was based, but the ground upon which those stood was success. Success made the others attractive; success is the most powerful attraction. The West is losing its aura of success – endless wars, divisive politics, COVID failure, financial crises, debt. And ever more desperate attempts to hold power against ever bolder dissent. It’s just beginning. And not just the USA, the West doesn’t present well any more: protests in Amsterdam, London, Berlin; a year of gilets jaunes in France. The world is watching. Not efficient, not attractive, not law-based. Not successful. Patrick Armstrong

Because Coronaviruses have been with us for as long as conspiracies, it’s natural for people to link them. But the history of epidemics offers better explanations than any conspiracy theory and useful advice to those who study it and respond appropriately.  This is the story of two civilizations: one that studied it and one that didn't.
***
When a Swine Flu scare struck in the midst of the 1976 presidential campaign, Gerald Ford endorsed mass immunization. Surprised, the WHO, which had not been consulted, said, “No other countries have plans for mass inoculations”. But US officials pressured the WHO to endorse Ford’s decision and, “By the next day, headlines quoted WHO officials stating, ‘WHO endorses President Ford’s plan for massive inoculation against swine flu virus.’”  The vaccine proved ineffectual for most and lethal for some, contributing to Ford’s loss to Jimmy Carter. 
When the AIDS epidemic struck in 1981, Ronald Reagan–concluding that old people and homosexuals were dispensable while political careers were not–ignored it and was reelected in a landslide. 
Since that day, governments have treated epidemics as acts of a capricious God, mumbled something about ‘a bad ‘flu season,’ and let herd immunity work its magic. Says UK Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn, “I remember distinctly going to a meeting at the Cabinet Office, where we got a lecture about herd immunity. The last time I discussed herd immunity was when I worked on a pig farm 40 years ago. It was absurd that actually [you] would build up herd immunity by allowing people to die. And so, while the government was going into eugenic formulas and discussing all this stuff, they were not making adequate preparations.” And that was in Britain, with its famed National Health Service. 

It is difficult to imagine how the US could have made ‘adequate preparations’ when we distrust our our medical industry, our media, and each other.

We even distrust our government.

The CDC, born in 1946 as the US Army’s Communicable Disease Center, is still headed by a non-scientist Army officer. It has only ever provided surveillance, research, and advice, leaving execution to the Army’s chain-of-command. The national health department of Swaziland can probably field more public health staff overnight than the CDC. 

To complicate matters, expert opinion was divided. Mainstream epidemiology and public health entities doubted–some rejected–the efficacy of lockdowns and mass quarantines as ineffectual and impracticable. 

In early 2020, Tony Fauci told reporters, “I can’t imagine shutting down New York or Los Angeles, but the judgement on the part of the Chinese health authorities is that given the fact that it’s spreading throughout the provinces… it’s their judgement that this is something that in fact is going to help in containing it. Whether or not it does or does not is really open to question because historically when you shut things down it doesn’t have a major effect.”

Had Dr. Fauci studied China’s history with the virus he would know that they eliminated diseases in two years that had been endemic for a century, according to the US National Institutes of Health,: “Life expectancy under Mao ranks among the most rapid, sustained increases in documented global history”.

Rightly or wrongly, Beijing had treated the 2003 SARS outbreak as another US bioweapon and assigned three teams to prepare for the next attack: 

  1. Prevention and Detection, led by George Gao, head of the CCDC. Dr. Gao established a 70,000-node coronavirus detection system that gives physicians one-click access to Beijing headquarters.  

  2. Response, led by 94 million Party members, who took responsibility for shutdown logistics. 

  3. Geopolitical Implications, led by Liu He (below). Mr. Liu concluded that pandemics often shift the balance of global power and focused on exiting a lockdown at full throttle. Beijing gave him a supercomputer and a thousand PhDs to model the scenario Beijing is currently executing.

Despite repeated warnings, when the WHO announced the outbreak in January, 2020, Dr. Fauci announced, “The American public shouldn’t worry about the coronavirus outbreak in China. It’s a very, very low risk to the United States.. And we have ways of responding – like we did with this one case in Seattle, Washington, who had traveled to China and brought back the infection.” The President repeated his assurances.

But, while politicians ignored the virus (already widespread amongst us even then), media relentlessly insisted that it was an existential threat. The fact that a huge country shut down its cherished economy convinced us that the survival of the human race was at stake. At the same time, the US added fuel to the media’s flames by predicting that the shutdown would wreck China’s economy. Nancy Pelosi cheered on the virus and the State Department circulated ‘Blame China!’ memos to embassies–official acknowledgement that drew even more attention to the outbreak.

Then,  with the first domestic deaths, we demanded that governments Do Something. The UK abandoned ‘herd immunity’ as ‘insensitive’ and fired the man who proposed it.
 

But the CDC hung tough

It moved Covid discussions to secure facilities, classified them, and released them on a need to know basis. It banned Covid testing and local health officials who insisted on testing for Covid-19 were served with cease and desist orders until mid-March, when media fixation on the epidemic forced the CDC to lift its testing ban. 

Was there a Great Chinese Covid Conspiracy? Did the PRC trick us into emulating them? A European epidemiologist based in China suspected as much and wrote me at the time: 

I find the Chinese government’s response extremely interesting, as though it deliberately exaggerated C-19. It seems the PRC is fanning fears on purpose, using maps filled with dark areas and shutting down everything everywhere–on a staggering scale. Few people realize just how big Wuhan is, and how significant Chinese New Year is in terms of people moving around and going in and out of those wet markets every day: literally hundreds of thousands of people leaving them, taking public transport, going home, exposing family and visiting relatives who in turn go to crowded areas and use public transport themselves. Comparing the paucity of cases to the population and the relatively low death rate, I suspect Wuhan was practicing for a really serious outbreak, when people die like flies. And, just as they did with SARS, the government has taken copious notes on how to improve–and showing us how China will respond. 

Whether or not they intended their response as a wu-shi move on the West, China benefited greatly from it, testing their civil defense, strengthening management, and boosting social cohesion. For scope, speed, agility, sophistication, and geopolitical impact, nothing compares to it. 

If China's Covid response was a conspiracy, our media abetted it by steering Western governments onto well-charted rocks, and their timing could not have been worse. In 2021, the centenary of the Party’s founding, Beijing will reveal an array of social, business, scientific, civil, military, and diplomatic achievements, including three new multi-billion dollar industries. The main attraction is a fully automated Flash Gordon city, home to six million people, whisked around, mostly underground, in autonomous EVs to buildings that expect and summon elevators for them. Built to humanize urban life, its loudest sound outdoors will be chirping birds. 

Efficient, attractive, law-based, successful. 

From Amazon

The Selden Map of China: 
A New Understanding of the Ming Dynasty

Dating from the seventeenth century at the height of the Ming Dynasty, the Selden Map of China reveals a country very different from popular conceptions of the time, looking not inward to the Asian landmass but outward to the sea. Discovered in the stacks of the Bodleian Library, this beautifully decorative map of China is, in fact, a seafaring chart showing Ming Dynasty trade routesAmazon

The Needham Report


The Report of the International Scientific Commission for the Investigation of Facts Concerning Bacteriological Warfare in Korea and China (the ISC report), published at the height of the Korean War, validated claims by North Korea and China that the US had launched bacteriological warfare (biological warfare, BW) attacks against both troops and civilian targets in those two countries over a period of several months in 1952.
   

The most vilified document of the 20th Century.

The report’s release in September, 1952, brought a withering international attack. It was roundly denounced by American and British politicians of the highest rank, ridiculed by four star generals, accused of fraud by celebrated pundits, misquoted by notable scientists, and scorned by a compliant Western press. Charges were made against the quality and truthfulness of its science. Its “unstated” political agenda was denounced. The ethics of interviewing captured US pilots was excoriated and its authors were publicly flayed as communist dupes. The report was red baited in the US halls of Congress and deemed unpatriotic to read, and therefore went unread and deliberately forgotten over the years, which has been the fate of Korean War history in general. In subsequent decades, volumes placed in American university library collections were quietly and permanently removed from circulation.
   
When the rare copy came up for auction, it was discretely purchased and disappeared from public view. This critical 67 year old truth commission document from the Korean War was slipping towards oblivion. For these very reasons, historians and truth seekers should exalt the wondrous rebirth of the ISC Report from near extinction with the publication of this new electronic edition. We welcome the sunshine that re-publication brings to a shadowy and suppressed chapter of American Cold War history. (from the introduction by Thomas Powell) 800 pages.  $9.99. Amazon.

Why China Leads the World:

Talent at the Top, Data in the Middle, Democracy at the Bottom

The first book to explain the three elements of China's success: 
1. Talent at the Top means that China's brightest, most idealistic people are are admitted to politics–a policy unchanged in 2200 years.
2. Data in the Middle means that every policy is implemented, tracked, and optimized based on terabytes of data. The PRC is the world's largest consumer of public surveys.
3. Democracy at the Bottom means that ordinary, honest amateurs assemble twice a year to check the stats and sign off on new legislation. Policies need a minimum of 66% popular support to become law. That's why 95% of Chinese say the country is on the right track.


By the end of this year there will be more hungry children, more poor, homeless, drug addicted, and imprisoned people in America than in China.  Why China Leads the World investigates why the epidemic accelerated the change of global leadership from America to China and examines China’s bigger, steadier economy, its science leadership, stronger military, more powerful allies, and wider international support.
Crammed with charts, footnotes, and lengthy quotes, Why China Leads the World is a profoundly disturbing book that helps readers understand the tectonic shift and adapt to this new era–and even thrive in it.
***
The size of China's displacement of the world balance is such that the world must find a new balance. It is not possible to pretend that this is just another big player. This is the biggest player in the history of the world. Lee Kuan Yew: The Future of US-China Relations. The Atlantic.  
***
The Coronavirus accelerated the pace of change of global leadership from America to China. There are now more hungry children, more poor, homeless, drug addicted, and imprisoned people in America than in China. 
Suddenly, China's larger, steadier economy, its leadership in science, its stronger military, more powerful allies, and wider international support have handed it a lead that widens every day.  Crammed with direct quotes from its movers and shakers, charts, and footnotes, Why China Leads the World tells a remarkable tale, explains a tectonic shift, and helps you adapt to this new era, and even thrive in it. 
 ***
If we could just be China for one day we could actually authorize the right decisions. Thomas L. Friedman. The New York Times  

300 pages, 27 charts and graphs. $9.99 on Amazon, eBook outlets, and bookstores worldwide.

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