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Dear Colleague,

Welcome to our March newsletter.

We are very pleased to celebrate International Woman’s Day with a recording of our recent annual conference, Women in Macroeconomics: Diversity and Representation, here. Wider representation is essential for our discipline and society as a whole.

We are also pleased to share the final outputs of six more of our research projects (listed by Principal Investigator):
We have two excellent Working Papers from our Instability Hub leaders: Jean-Philippe Bouchaud on Tatonnement, Approach to Equilibrium and Excess Volatility in Firm Networks and Jean-Philippe Bouchaud and Roger Farmer on Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Non-Ergodicity & Wealth Inequality.

Our next virtual event is a Symposium on Systemic Recovery with our colleagues at the OECD’s New Approaches to Economic Challenges and The Fields Institute, Canada, on 26 – 27 April. Our draft agenda and invited speakers are here.

We also wish to highlight a three-week Extended Problem Solving Workshop here for graduate students and post-docs undertaking modelling research into responses to Covid-19 and ongoing policy challenges. The closing date for applications is this Friday, March 12.

All information and videos of past conferences are on our homepage or can be found by clicking on the links. If you would like to join any of our events, please ask Richard at r.arnold@niesr.ac.uk

Thank you for your support and best wishes,

 

Angus Armstrong
Director, Rebuilding Macroeconomics

Please spread the word if you know friends and colleagues who would like to engage with Rebuilding Macroeconomics by forwarding this newsletter and invite them to subscribe here. You can follow all of our news through our website, www.rebuildingmacroeconomics.ac.uk, on Twitter and YouTube.

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Completed Research Projects:

please remember to click "download pictures"

Final Project Output:

Final Blog Post (here)

Final Project Output:

Final Blog Post (here)

Final Project Output:

Final Blog Post (here)

We are delighted to share two more working papers by our Instability Hub co-leaders.

Working Paper No. 47: Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Non-Ergodicity & Wealth Inequality, by Jean-Philippe Bouchaud and Roger E. A. Farmer

We construct a model where people trade assets contingent on an observable signal that reflects public opinion. The agents in our model are replaced occasionally and each person updates beliefs in response to observed outcomes. We show that the distribution of the observed signal is described by a quasi non-ergodic process and that people continue to disagree with each other forever. Our model generates large wealth inequalities that arise from the multiplicative nature of wealth dynamics which makes successful bold bets highly profitable. The flip side of this statement is that unsuccessful bold bets are ruinous and lead the person who makes such bets into poverty. People who agree with the market belief have a low expected subjective gain from trading. People who disagree either become spectacularly rich, or spectacularly poor.

Working Paper No. 42: Tatonnement, Approach to Equilibrium and Excess Volatility in Firm Networks, by Théo Dessertaine, José Moran, Michael Benraquen, and Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

We study the conditions under which input-output networks can dynamically attain competitive equilibrium, where markets clear and profits are zero. We show that the time needed to reach equilibrium diverges as the system approaches an instability point beyond which the Hawkins-Simons condition is violated and competitive equilibrium is no longer realisable. We argue that such slow dynamics is a source of excess volatility, through accumulation and amplification of exogenous shocks. Factoring in essential physical constraints, such as causality or inventory management, we propose a dynamically consistent model that displays a rich variety of phenomena. Competitive equilibrium can only be reached after some time and within some region of parameter space, outside of which one observes periodic and chaotic phases, reminiscent of real business cycles. This suggests an alternative explanation of the excess volatility that is of purely endogenous nature. Other regimes include deflationary equilibria and intermittent crises characterised by bursts of inflation. 

All our resources are now easily accessible through our homepage, including the recordings of our past events, the final outputs of our projects, working and discussion papers.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), which hosts Rebuilding Macroeconomics, is making available its new Economic Outlooks for the UK and the World.  NIESR is extending its coverage to the UK regions and also running more scenario analysis in the global section.
NIESR would be pleased to receive any feedback,
which can be sent to economicoutlook@niesr.ac.uk 

FIND OUT MORE HERE
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Our mailing address is:

Rebuilding Macroeconomics, NIESR

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