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Ruthless Chinese gangsters honor their ancestors! A CCTV documentary, “Crackdown on Crime: For the Country’s Prosperity and the People’s Safety,” dramatizes egregious graft cases.  The first episode told the story of four Liu brothers, imprisoned in 2019, for destroying 100 grave sites to build a lavish hall commemorating their ancestors. Read full article $ →

A survey of 4,000 parents found that 92% spent more than $1,500 yearly on extracurricular classes. President Xi called disorder in the tutoring industry “a stubborn malady” and vowed to solve the problem. Authorities in Shanghai and Beijing, where the problem is most severe, have already cracked down on the industry.  Read full article $ →

Zhāng Méng, a single mother, received maternity insurance for her child after a four year legal battle with the Shanghai city government. Zhang is the beneficiary of a recent change in municipal regulations regarding family rights that now grants the same maternity benefits to single mothers that married couples get. Shanghai is the second region after Guangdong grant maternity benefits without proof of marriage. Read full article →

Nine people were sentenced to 6-10 months jail for illegal fishing in the Yangtze River and East China Sea. A 10-year fishing ban in the river now protects biodiversity.  The main culprit, Mr. Zhang, used technology that could track the direction of the fishery watchdog’s boats before picking a spot to fish illegally. Read full article →

There are 4,100 family names in China. Many people have the same surname + first name: there are 290,607 Chinese with the name “张伟” (Zhāng Wěi). Only 1.97 million people's names have four + characters. The longest occur in Xinjiang, with surnames of 15 characters! Parents can freely choose both the first name and the family name of 22 million newborns every year. Download Frans Vandenbosch's genealogy guide →

After 62 years, Tibet enjoys moderate prosperity. China's Tibet Autonomous Region will keep pace with other parts of the country in completing the building of a moderately prosperous society.  Read full article $ →

The best time to visit Lhasa is April-October, when the air's oxygen content in the air reaches 66%. The climate is warm and humid, and it is not as windy and dry as it is in the winter or early spring. Lhasa has a long period of sunlight throughout the year, so is called “Sunlight City.” Read full article →

Every visitor to China needs a VPN. Keep this guide handy for your next visit. Download the Guide here. 

Nathaniel Brown has compiled video tours of six Shenzen electronics factories. Watch  →

China has 85 women billionaires–two-thirds of the world total–and minted 24 new ones last year, four times more than America. Read full article $→ 

Martin Jacques: "Hong Kong’s problems are not just political. The failure to tackle the socio-economic problems bequeathed by the British – an oligopolistic colonial-style economy, huge inequality and, above all, the control by tycoons of the supply of land, resulting in sky-high property prices – has understandably led to a  mood of resentment and pessimism, especially among the young". Read full article $→ 

Need a Quote From an Official Enemy Denouncing Democracy?
Do Like the New York Times and Make It Up!

 

Such a system “does not represent the will of the international community,” China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, told Russia’s, Sergey V. Lavrov, when they met in the southern Chinese city of Guilin.

Whether you're raising a Pekingese dog or a Tibetan mastiff, they were both very small when they were young, about the same size, and both looked like little lions. If you raise a Pekingese dog, no matter how hard you work, it is impossible to raise a big Tibetan mastiff; but if you raise a Tibetan mastiff as a Pekingese dog, it is really possible to raise it as a small Pekingese dog. This is because the growth potential of the Pekingese Dog and the Tibetan Mastiff is quite different. So it is very important to spot the potential.

China's development potential?

From the reform and opening up in 1978 to 2020 , the average annual growth rate of China's economy was 9.2% . Never in human history has any country or region sustained such a high growth rate for so long. We have all witnessed and participated in this miracle in human economic history.

All walks of life are very concerned about the future, but the current domestic and foreign academic circles and public opinion circles are generally not optimistic about China's future development potential. In summary, there are roughly two reasons:

One reason is that China has developed too fast in the past 42 years , whichis abnormal and always has to return to normal growth. According to the view of the internationally renowned economist, former U.S. Treasury Secretary, and Harvard University President Summers, China will fall back to 3%-Normal growth of 3.5% . At the same time, according to research data released by the tenth edition of the World Table of the University of Pennsylvania, China 's per capita GDP at the end of 2019 has reached US$14,129 based on the purchasing power parity of US dollars in 2017 .

Some scholars compare this figure with Germany, Japan, Germany, found 16-yearaverage annual growth rate after reaching about $ GDP14120 per capita ofonly 2.3%; after 16 years, the average growth rate of Japan to achieve this level of only 4.4%. The economic development of Germany and Japan is world-renowned. After 16 years the average growth rate since they arrived at this level only 2.3% and 4.4%, China 2019-2035 growth potential of this 16-year period will not be very high. This reasoning sounds reasonable.

China has begun to age.

After the aging of the population in other countries, economic growth has slowed down, and China will inevitably slow down its economic growth.

The above research seems very convincing, but I personally disagree. This is because there are many factors for China to achieve an annual growth rate of9.2% in the past 40 years , but the most important decisive factor is to make full use of the advantages of latecomers contained in the industrial technology gap with developed countries in the process of economic development.

For a country or region, if the economy wants to develop and the standard of living needs to be improved, it must rely on the continuous improvement of labor productivity. This requires continuous technological innovation and continuous industrial upgrading. The technology and industry of developed countries are at the forefront of the world, and their technological innovation and industrial upgrading must be invented by themselves. The investment is very large, the risk is very high, and the rate of progress is very limited. Historical experience shows that the normal growth of developed countries in the past 100 years is the What Moss said is 3%-3.5% per year . However, developing countries can take advantage of the industrial and technological gap with developed countries and introduce mature technologies as a source of technological innovation and industrial upgrading. The cost and risk of this approach are relatively small. Developing countries that know how to use this method can develop their economies faster than developed countries. After the reform and opening up, China became one of the thirteen developing economies that knew how to use this advantage to achieve 7.0% or more per year for 25 years or more after World War II .

Therefore, from this perspective, the future development potential of China depends not on the current income level, but on the gap between China and the developed countries represented by the United States.

Take Germany and Japan, for example, Germany's per capita GDP of about $14120 in 1971, when the United States has a 72.4% level of GDP per capita,has undoubtedly among the most developed countries in the world, we have exhausted latecomer advantages, To carry out technological innovation and industrial upgrading, we must invent ourselves, and the economic growth rate will naturally slow down. Japan’s per capita GDP reached approximatelyUS$ 14,120 in 1975. At that time , its per capita GDP reached 69.7% of the American per capita level . It has also become one of the most developed countries in the world. Technology has reached the forefront of the world, and economic growth must rely on its own invention and development. Of course the speed will also slow down.

China's per capita GDP (PPP) reached US$ 14,129 in 2019 , but only 22.6% of the US level in the same period .

In contrast, when did other countries such as Germany, Japan, South Korea, etc., have developed better, when their per capita GDP reached 22.6% of that of the United States ? Germany was in 1946 , Japan was in 1956 , and South Korea was in 1985 . Germany from 1946 to 1962, for 16 years the average economic growth rate reached 9.4%; Japan from 1956-1972, the average economic growth in 16 years to reach 9.2%; South Korea from 1985to 2001 between, during the suffered the Asian financial and economic crisis Under the condition of one-year negative growth , the average growth rate in16 years is still as high as 9.0% .

Judging from these data, China should also have about 9% growth potentialin the next 16 years (from 2019) , because Germany, Japan, South Korea and other countries have already achieved it.

In this regard, many people have begun to emphasize the second reason, that is, the aging of the population affects the economic growth rate. Indeed, countries facing an aging population have slower economic growth. But don’t forget that most countries with population aging are developed countries. When aging comes, their technology has developed to the forefront of the world. Technological progress must be invented by oneself, and the rate of labor supply will be superimposed on it, and economic growth will be even slower. .

China is experiencing an aging population, but our per capita GDP is only 22.6% of that of the United States . Technological innovation and industrial upgrading can take advantage of latecomers, and we can also allocate labor from low-value-added industries to high-value-added industries to increase labor productivity. The space is still very large. Therefore, if China can take advantage of latecomers, even if its population does not grow, it can grow faster than developed countries.

In addition, China is currently gradually extending the retirement age, which is conducive to increasing labor supply. Moreover, the most important thing about the labor force is not only quantity, but quality. China can also improve per capita efficiency.

Let's compare the population growth of Germany, Japan, and South Korea in the 16 years after the per capita GDP reached around US$ 14,100 , and look at the contribution of demographic factors to economic growth.

Germany ’s average annual population growth from 1946 to 1962 was 0.8% ; Japan ’s average annual population growth from 1956 to 1972 was 1.0% ; South Korea ’s average annual population growth from 1985 to 2001 was0.9% . China 's natural population growth rate in 2019 is 0.3% , and it may drop to 0% in the future . Therefore, even if we do not consider the possibility of distributing labor from low-value-added industries to high-value-added industries, and the possibility of extending retirement and improving the quality of education, the population growth factor of China and Japan, Germany, and South Korea is at most A difference of 1 percentage point.
 

Potential Growth Rate of 8% by 2035

Therefore, by 2035 , China should still have an average annualgrowth potential of 8% . Compared with the actual 9% growth in Germany, Japan and South Korea , I consider the population growth factor and reduce it by one percentage point.

Of course, to have this growth potential does not necessarily have to be fully developed regardless of other factors, because what China wants to achieve is high-quality growth, and it must then solve environmental problems such as carbon peaks, carbon neutrality, urban-rural gaps, regional gaps, etc. The problems must be resolved, and there is also the "stuck neck" problem caused by friction in Sino-US relations, which must be overcome by innovation on our own. Considering these issues that must be dealt with, as well as the 8% growth potential, I judge that it is entirely possible for China toachieve an average annual real growth of 5%-6% in the next 15 years ( 2021-2035 ) .

The General Secretary mentioned in his recommendations on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and 2035 long-term goals that by 2035 , China will strive to double the size of China's GDP on the basis of 2020 , or strive to double the per capita income on the basis of 2020 . Regardless of which goal is achieved, an average annual economic growth rate of 4.7% needs to be achieved from 2021 to 2035 .

If China can achieve a growth rate of 5-6% , by 2025 , the current exchange rate per capita will cross the threshold of US$ 12,535 and become a high-income country. This will also be a historic moment. Because until now, the world's population living in high-income countries only accounts for 18% of the total population. If China becomes a high-income country, this number will double.

By 2035 , China's per capita GDP (current exchange rate) should be above US$ 23,000 ( calculated based on the purchasing power of US dollars in2019 ), and it will become a modern socialist country.

Using the same method described above (from the perspective of the gap in the industry and technology level represented by the income level gap), we can find that China still has an average annual growth potential of 6%between 2036 and 2049 , and considering that there are still many The issues that need to be addressed, it is entirely possible to achieve an average annual growth rate of about 4% . Based on this calculation, China's per capita GDP will reach half of that of the United States by 2049 , which is an important indicator of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Development copes with international changes

Faced with a major change in the world unseen in a century, we must first think about why this change occurred. The economy is the foundation. Let's look at the development and changes of the economy.

In 1900 , the Eight-Power Allied Forces attacked Beijing, including Britain, the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Russia, Japan, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The GDP of these eight countries combined accounted for50.4% of the world's total in terms of purchasing power parity . The Austro-Hungarian Empire collapsed after the First World War and divided into two countries. Later, the Canadian economy grew rapidly. By 2000 , the Group of Eight (referred to as G8 , the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Russia, Japan, and Canada) ) GDP accounts for 47% of the world in terms of purchasing power parity . In other words, the international political economy of the entire 20th century was dominated by these eight developed countries.

By 2018 , the General Secretary put forward "a major change unseen in a century" at the Central Foreign Affairs Work Conference. The background is that the G8’s GDP share in the world has dropped to 34.7% , and it has changed from half of the world to a third of the world. It is difficult to continue to be the dominant force in the world. So it can be seen that as early as 2008when the international financial and economic crisis broke out, the “G8” that dominated world affairs became the “G20”.

Two countries have the greatest impact on this change, one is the United States and the other is China. In 2000 , the United States accounted for21.9% of the world's GDP in terms of purchasing power parity , but in 2014China surpassed the United States to become the world's largest economy. The current GDP of the United States accounts for about 16% of the world's GDP , and China is even higher than that. These facts show that the influence of the United States is declining, and the influence of China is increasing. In this regard, the American political powers, intellectuals, and policy research circles all see it in their eyes. Therefore, when Obama was in power, he proposed the strategy of "returning to the Asia-Pacific". After Trump took office, he launched a trade war and a technology war. After Biden came to power, I guess it was "changing the soup without changing the medicine." This kind of exchange of the positions of the world leader and second child, of course, caused tension between the two countries, and at the same time brought a lot of uncertainty to the world, so it is "a major change unseen in a century."

If China can tap the development potential and realize the development speed obtained from the previous analysis, by 2049 , China’s per capita GDPwill reach 1/2 of that of the United States , and China’s population is four times that of the United States, so the total economic scale will be twice that of the United States. .

Among them, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and the five eastern coastal provinces (Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong) have a population of a little more than 400 million. I believe that the per capita GDP and economic scale of these regions will reach the same level as the United States by 2049. . GDP per capita represents the average labor rate level and the average technology industry level. By then, the areas where the United States can hold China's neck are basically gone. China has a population of 1 billion in thecentral and western regions , and its per capita GDP is only one-third of that of the United States . Its economic scale is comparable to that of the United States. These regions are still catching up, and their economic growth can be faster. Therefore, the economic growth of China as a whole can be faster.

In this situation, I think the relationship between China and the United States may change from tension to relaxation. Because first, by that time, the United States will not have any areas that can hold China’s neck; second, China’s economic aggregate was twice that of the United States at that time, and the United States cannot change this fact no matter how unhappy it is. Third, China’s economic growth is fast. It is the largest market in the world. For the US economy to develop well, it must be necessary for its own employment and prosperity.

Historical roots. 

Japan was one of the eight-nationcoalition forces in 1900. In 2000 , Japan was the only country in Asia that entered the "Group of Eight". Japan was the leader of Asia in the entire 20thcentury. However, in 2010 , China's economic scale surpassed that of Japan, and its influence was rising. Japanese rightists felt a great sense of loss, so problems such as the Diaoyu Islands were created, and Sino-Japanese relations became tense. Recently, Sino-Japanese relations have eased. The reason is that China’s economic scale is already 2.8 times that of Japan. No matter how unhappy it is, it can’t change this fact. Japan’s economic development depends on the Chinese market, and the relationship between China and Japan tends to win-win.

In the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2035 long-term goal outline, it is mentioned that development is the foundation and key to solving all the problems in our country. At the same time, it is also mentioned that China's development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities, and continued development still has many aspects. Under the premise of ensuring the obvious improvement of quality and efficiency, we must give full play to our growth potential. If we can follow the recommendations of the central government, follow the policy guidance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2035 long-term goal outline, I believe that we can overcome the middle-income trap and build China into a modern socialist country by 2049and realize China. The goal of the great national rejuvenation can also control the changes unseen in a century and rebuild a new, stable and shared prosperity for the world.

The beginning of Africa-China engagement

How China became a dominant actor in two decades

Africa’s Relationship with the Rest Today  

What can be done

#6. Chen Wei 

Chen gained national fame during the Covid pandemic as a leading scientist that led China’s vaccine development efforts. In her speech, she called for more resources for China’s tech innovation, particularly in the biotech field. Chen summarized China’s disadvantages in biotechnology innovation as  Lacking top-level design and scientific coordination, unconsolidated research forces, unsound long-term support mechanism, shaky basic research, insufficient hardware, and underdeveloped rapid response system. She then laid out 4 recommendations:
 

1. Establishing “white list” system for major science research projects related to national security. Fully take advantage of new model whole-of-country approach, promote the optimal allocation of scientific research forces and resource sharing, systematically plan the layout of major projects in major frontier areas such as life and health technology and biosecurity, amont others. Establish a "white list" for core technology teams, and committ long-term stable national investment to achieve the organic integration of "project - base - talent". This white list method could lay a sound scientific foundation for the protection of national development interests, eliminating major security risks, and breaking through foreign technological blockade.
2. Constructing a National Technology Innovation Center for Special Needs Vaccines. The Ministry of Science and Technology has issued the "General Plan for Promoting the Construction of National Technological Innovation Center (Provisional)", which contains language for the construction of several national technological innovation centers during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. I’d recommend building a National Technology Innovation Center for Special Needs Vaccines, focusing on the major needs of national biosecurity defense, taking stock of "chokepoint" technologies and strong point technologies, strengthening top-level design and scientific coordination, carrying out cooperation between military and civil departments, different fields and disciplines, in order to achieve "have to know-how for known technologies, and have the ability to discover unknown technologies" and promote national biosecurity and social stability.
3. Continuously carry out scientific research on the prevention and control of Covid-19. Under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, China's Covid epidemic has been fully controlled. But from a global perspective, the picture is much more complicated, therefore there should not be any slackening of the prevention and control measures. China should continue to increase scientific research efforts, the integrated use of biotechnology and big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and other innovative means to further clarify the origin of the virus, animal hosts and pathogenic mechanisms, carry out in-depth analysis of the impact of virus mutations on existing prevention and control measures, proactively to carry out pre-research for important mutant strains of vaccines, nucleic acids and antibody detection reagents, and make timely updates when necessary.
4. Create a good research ecology dedicated to basic research. Vigorously promote the spirit of scientists, and strive to create a good innovation ecology conducive to basic research. Offer more support to those who work in basic research away from the spotlight in project research, platform construction, and talent programs. Inspire everyone to explore, without distractions to focus on the frontier, accomplish more breakthroughs from 0 to 1. Encourage more young talents to be indifferent to fame and fortune, to be innovative, to devote themselves to scientific research, and to play a supporting role in scientific innovation for a better future for our country!

As context, your host would just point to the remarks Chinese premier Li Keqiang made during the closing of the NPC, in which he echoed Chen’s opinion and touched on potential policy changes that can better incentivize scientists. 

Over the years, China has made some major breakthroughs in the field of science and technology innovation. The field of applied innovation has also developed rapidly, but there is indeed a shortage in the field of basic research. To build a strong country in science and technology and enhance the ability of scientific and technological innovation, we must lay a solid foundation of basic research and applied basic research. The height of a building depends on the depth of the foundation, We must not rush, but go one step at a time.

At present, Chinese society’s investment in research and development as a proportion of GDP is not high, especially basic research investment only accounts for 6% of the investment in research and development, while developed countries are usually 15% to 25%. Our next step to increase investment in basic research, but also continue to reform the science and technology system. Let researchers have the autonomy, particularly the autonomy of disposing research funds. Researchers should not be mired with filling out forms, evaluation and other matters, but rather devote their full energy to research. The development comes from a sound foundation. Speaking of this, I would like to say a few words to the young students, no matter what career you will be engaged in, what kind of ambition you have, you must pay attention to strengthen the basic knowledge learning. Building solid basic skills and cultivate the ability to innovate is not contrary but a parallel.

#7. Huang Jiansheng: 

Huang’s main point was to preserve China’s food security. Namely, to make sure that China can feed its population under any scenario. Huang makes four recommendations, make sure China has enough farmland, innovate China’s seed technology, incentivize farming and reduce grain spoilage:

Curb unlawful occupancy of arable land and the de-agriculturalization of arable land, and firmly guard the red line of maintaining at least 1.8 billion mu (appr. 300 mln acres) of farmland……It is recommended to strengthen scientific innovation to improve arable land quality, construction of scientific and technological platforms to promote arable land protection and utilization, and set up major R&D projects to provide effective scientific and technological support for the rational use of arable land and ground strength improvement.

Set up major special projects at the national level, pool resources, integrate forces, strengthen the basic research of breeding, as soon as possible to achieve breakthroughs in "chokepoint" technologies.

Improve the compensation mechanism for main grain-producing areas, increase the transfer of payments, reward large grain-producing provinces, cities, and counties according to grain production and output, encourage greater land transfer, the development of moderate scale operations, support the development of food processing industry, so that they have financial income, economic development, and the will to grow more grain.

Further improve modern grain reserve infrastructure system, optimize utilization, maintenance and renovation and upgrading efforts, and continue to promote the construction of smart storage to reduce losses caused by temperature and humidity, rodent and insect damage. Promote low-temperature refrigeration technology in key grain output provinces so that the storage period of wheat and rice be extended from 5 and 3 years, respectively, to 10 and 5 years.

Chinese society places great emphasis on making sure that it produces enough grain to feed the entire population.  Your host would also point to the second recommendation by Huang, which stresses the importance of innovating China’s seed technology, as the concept of seed security is gaining more traction.  "No. 1 central document" for 2021, released by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, stated that China shall “win the battle of the seed industry and overtake others” (打好种业翻身仗). Also on this front, China is to finish building crop seed bank this year (Xinhua English story here).

#8. Ma Yongsheng: 

Though Ma is the head of Sinopec, one of China’s main fossil fuel suppliers, his speech very much focuses on non-fossil fuel energy, which he argues China will need to rely on in order to achieve better energy independence. Ma described China’s disadvantages in the energy sector as follows:

Fossil fuel makes up too much of China’s energy consumption. In 2020, coal makes up 56.7% of China’s energy source, while petroleum and natural gas make up 19.1% and 8.5% respectively. Nonfossile fuel energy makes up 15.7%. Over-dependence on foreign fossil fuel. In 2020, foreign petroleum and natural gas make up 73% and 43% of all Chinese consumption.

A mismatch between the energy-producing regions and the major energy-consuming regions. China’s energy is mostly generated in the north, northwest, and southwest, while the biggest energy-consuming region lies in the southeast.

Technological shortfalls. China still relies on foreign know-how in regards to core tech and equipment, which puts China in face of “choking point” risks.To tackle the problems, Ma called for 4 initiatives, your host will paraphrase his words here to avoid confusing you with tedious official language.

First, prioritize conservation and improve energy efficiency. Ma called for more energy-efficient equipment to be used, create economic incentives for energy conservation, and promote “a culture of energy conservation.”

Second, optimize China’s energy consumption structure. Ma called for faster development of non-fossil energy, and establish a diverse energy supply of coal, petroleum, natural gas, nuclear, new energy, and renewable energy. By the year 2025, non-fossil energy should make up the majority of recremental consumption. Ma particularly raised the lessons learned from the wind and solar energy industries, saying that an overarching strategy should be developed and a regulatory regime implemented, to avoid disorderly investment and underachieving results. Ma also emphasized the development of hydrogen energy, especially accelerate the production of hydrogen by electrolysis, and better utilize China’s geothermal energy. Ma also mentioned the development of shale oil and gas, coal-bed methane.

Third, Ma called for technology innovation, recommending policy support for innovations in the sectors of hydrogen production, oil and gas exploration, and development, clean and efficient utilization of coal, smart grid operation, distributed energy construction.

Fourth, enhancing international cooperation, expanding sources of energy to satisfy Chinese demand. Ma recommended a series of overseas energy bases be built, especially in Belt and Road countries, to ensure energy can be reliably purchased and shipped. Ma also said China should try to improve its bargaining power in the global energy market as a major energy consumer.

#9 Wei Zhenling: 

Wei hailed the accomplishment of China’s anti-poverty campaign, which saw the successful eradication of extreme poverty in China.

Wei said she belonged to Mao’nan ethnic group, and suffered from poverty when she was little. She recounted her first-person point of view in witnessing the living standard of those around her gradually raise in recent years.

She noted that to elevate communities out of poverty, the Chinese government sponsored road projects, clean water pipelines, schools, and medical facilities, and helped communities find industries that could sustain their livelihood. Read full article $→  Subscribe to Beijing Channel

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