I. The Big Story: China-India Brief
The 11th round of Corps Commander-level meeting, which is due since the disengagement at Pangong Tso, is expected to be held in the upcoming week, reports India Today. Two sides will discuss the disengagement in the Gogra-Hotspring areas in eastern Ladakh. The two sides had agreed to continue their dialogue through diplomatic and military channels to “reach a mutually acceptable solution for complete disengagement from all friction points at the earliest” in the recently conducted Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) on border affairs meeting. Previously, senior military commanders from both sides met on February 22 for the 10th round of talks after the Pangong disengagement.
What’s happening on the Chinese side?
In the monthly press conference, the defence ministry spokesperson said that both sides have disengaged front-line troops in the Pangong Lake area and agreed to maintain communication through military and diplomatic channels to promote the settlement of other issues in the west section of the China-India boundary. “China hopes the two sides can value the hard-won results, follow the important consensus reached by the leaders of both countries, maintain dialogue and communication, and stabilise the situation against relapse, gradually coming to solutions that can be accepted by the two countries to jointly maintain peace in the border area,” said Senior Colonel Ren Guoqiang.
However, a recent Janes report highlights the PLA Ground Forces build up near Rutog. Rutog is a county in Ngari Prefecture bordering the eastern Ladakh. The report highlights that at least 448 pieces of armour have been identified in positions near Rutog. I don’t have access to Janes, but you could check the details if you have access. It’s behind the paywall.
Source: @CSBiggers
Meanwhile, the PLA Daily published a front-page story on the problems for the Tibet Military Region's front-line barracks. The article claims that the PLA will adopt a "One Sentry, One Case" strategy to address these problems. Put simply, two sentries in the same region could have different problems with subjective solutions. (为增强帮建实效，西藏军区对各点哨需要解决的问题进行梳理，根据各点哨的不同情况制订个性化解难帮困方.)
Additionally, China’s Ministry of Transport claimed this week that the Nyingchi-Lhasa railway link is expected to open by the end of June. The 1,838-kilometer Sichuan-Tibet railway project has been divided into three parts for construction and operation. The section linking Chengdu and Ya’an in Sichuan opened in December 2018. Construction of the 435-km section linking Nyingchi and Lhasa began in 2015. Work on the middle and most challenging section, connecting Ya’an and Nyingchi, started in November 2020. It’s a major transport construction project during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), which is given utmost priority due to ongoing tensions between China and India.
Source
Meanwhile, the Chinese Embassy in India, following other Chinese missions, said that it would only “facilitate” travel for Indians, who are currently barred from travelling to China from India if they have taken Chinese vaccines. Interestingly, this announcement is made in a country with no Chinese vaccines. Indian students enrolled in Chinese universities but stranded in their home country will be the most affected by this. Beijing has suggested that Indian students stay in contact with their universities in China and follow their instructions, saying that they should continue with their online studies.
Moreover, responding to the recently conducted Quadrilateral Security Dialogue summit (Quad), China has also proposed a new regional security dialogue platform with Russia to address the security concerns of countries in the region. The proposal came following a meeting between Foreign Minister Wang Yi of China and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Guilin’s southern Chinese city, and days after the March 19 US-China summit in Alaska and the March 12 leaders’ summit of the Quad. Staying with the US-China summit in Alaska, the US reportedly highlighted the strength of its ties with India, underlining how it has increasingly come to view India as central to its broader objectives in dealing with China in the Indo-Pacific region during the summit. “The reference to India, it is learnt, was not favourably received by China’s two officials in Alaska — top diplomat and Politburo member Yang Jiechi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi — and is being seen as reflecting how U.S.-India relations, only two months into the new administration, are developing robustly,” reports Ananth Krishnan for the Hindu.
Finally, two Chinese research vessels are also surveying in the eastern Indian Ocean. “These survey activities may be aimed at giving Chinese submariners an advantage in their area,” reports USNI news.
Source: USNI News
What’s happening on the Indian side?
The Centre has informed a parliamentary panel that a “standalone project” to build a critical road along the border with China in Ladakh is going on. The panel was also informed that all along the China border, the construction of 57 roads, construction and refurbishing of 32 helipads, development of 47 outposts and twelve staging camps for Indo-Tibetan Border Police, along with the construction of 18-foot tracks in Arunachal Pradesh, is currently under progress. The total length of road constructed along the China border until November 2020 stood at 538.50 kilometres.
Notable Submissions
Dr Bramha Chellaney’s piece for the Times for India warns against China employing its water leverage against India. “In 2017, China openly demonstrated its use of water as a tool of coercive diplomacy when, in breach of two bilateral accords, it punitively cut off the flow of hydrological data to India, an action that undermined downstream flood early warning systems, resulting in preventable deaths in Assam… The recently announced canyon mega-project, like the Three Gorges Dam, will trap the downstream flow of nutrient-rich silt. It’ll also disrupt the Brahmaputra’s annual flooding cycle, which helps to re-fertilise farmland naturally by spreading silt, besides opening giant fish nurseries. That, in turn, is likely to cause subsidence and salinity in the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna delta,” writes Chellaney. You can also read his detailed submission to the Open Magazine.
Liu Zongyi, Secretary-General, China and South Asian Studies Centre, Shanghai Institute of International Studies, in his interview with Guancha, claims that the Chinese enterprises and capital need to evaluate whether India is worth investing. India has always adhered to the stance of economic nationalism. Chinese companies have invested and built a lot of infrastructure in India in the past. However, some of our Chinese companies in India receive the "third-class" treatment. We are included in the "alternative" list by the Indians, and there are areas where we cannot enter. If India really wants Chinese capital investments, then it must also give Chinese companies a security guarantee. If this is not possible, I think Chinese companies should seriously reconsider their investments in India.
Papers:
Do check Prof Rajesh Basrur’s ORF Issue Brief on India’s options in the India-China Nuclear dynamics. He makes three important points: The threat from China is likely to persist; India needs to adapt balancing responses to the threat to the requirements of a nuclear weapons environment; and Indian policymakers should be mindful of the possibilities of actual military combat, be it a marginal war, or a trans-domain conflict that involves the use of advanced technologies influencing both the nuclear and conventional spheres. He also writes, “Ideally, a dialogue that helps stabilise the India-China military-strategic relationship should be initiated. This is not easy, as China is already reluctant to enter into arms control negotiations with the US and Russia. It is also too anxious to focus on pursuing its status as a challenger to American dominance to sit at the nuclear negotiating table with an India it considers below its status. It may do so only in the aftermath of a massive crisis, as has been the case with other nuclear rivals. Meanwhile, India would do well to be prepared.”
Also, check the recent policy paper released by Pune International Centre, authored by Amb Gautam Bambawale et al. The paper is titled Strategic Patience and Flexible Policies: How India Can Rise to the China Challenge. I found three of the many important suggestions notable. They write that there are three areas where India should retreat from economic engagement with China: 1) Critical infrastructure 2) Critical technologies, e.g. 5G 3) Police against the Chinese surveillance of Indian personnel.
More Readings
- Dhruva Jaishankar: Takeaways from China-India Boundary Crisis
- Amb Shyam Saran: For India, Quad is just one option. US-China meet at Anchorage shows that
- Prof Swaran Singh: Putting Sino-Indian ties back on track
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II. Developing Stories
China-Philippines Standoff
The Philippines issued a formal diplomatic protest to China after 220 Chinese fishing vessels were spotted at a disputed reef in the South China Sea. These vessels were seen moored in line at Whitsun Reef in the South China Sea on March 7, a Philippine government task force overseeing the disputed seas said in a statement. The area, which the Southeast Asian nation calls Julian Felipe, is a large but shallow boomerang-shaped coral reef within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, the task force said. The vessels’ presence is “a concern due to the possible overfishing and destruction of the marine environment, as well as risks to the safety of navigation,” the Philippines government statement said.
Source: Guardian
“We call on the Chinese to stop this incursion and immediately recall these boats violating our maritime rights and encroaching into our sovereign territory,” defence secretary Delfin Lorenzana said in a statement. The Philippine military chief, Lieutenant General Cirilito Sobejana, said the military’s “utmost priority remains to be the protection of our citizens in the area, particularly our fishermen, through increased maritime patrols”. Philippine’s foreign secretary, Teodoro Locsin Jnr, said that the Philippines might invoke its defence treaty with the US to deal with the incursion. “Although we might not have at the moment the means to give [Beijing a] bloody nose, we do have a Mutual Defence Treaty,” said Locsin.
The Philippine military has ordered more navy ships to be deployed for “sovereignty patrols” in the South China Sea, where a Chinese flotilla has surrounded the disputed reef and ignored Manila’s demand to leave the area.
Meanwhile, the Chinese embassy in the Philippines has blamed “some external countries” for stoking tensions in the region. Its remarks were aimed at Japan after its ambassador to the Philippines tweeted, “The South China Sea issues are directly related to peace & stability and concern for all. Japan strongly opposes any action that heightens tensions. We support the enforcement of #RuleOfLaw in the sea & work with the int'l community to protect the free, open, and peaceful seas.”
The US also expressed its concerns saying Beijing uses “maritime militia to intimidate, provoke and threaten other nations.” The State Department spokesperson tweeted, “The U.S. stands with our ally, the Philippines, regarding concerns about the gathering of PRC maritime militia vessels near Whitsun Reef. We call on Beijing to stop using its maritime militia to intimidate and provoke others, which undermines peace and security.”
Meanwhile, check this SCMP piece about how vaccines, missiles and common threat can bring the Philippines and India closer:
- On March 2, Manila signed an agreement with New Delhi to buy the Indian-made BrahMos PJ-10, which it plans to use to defend its coastal areas in the face of Chinese encroachment.
- In recent weeks, Shambhu Kumaran, New Delhi’s ambassador to the Philippines, said talks were ongoing for Manila to secure 8 million doses of the Covaxin vaccine developed by India’s Bharat Biotech, while Philippine “vaccine tsar” Carlito Galvez Jnr announced that the country had secured 30 million doses of Covovax after he had made a trip to India to finalise a supply deal.
- Although the two countries have maintained diplomatic relations since 1949, ties have never been very close – but China and the pandemic are changing that, claims the article.
You can read Prof Andrew Erickson’s Foreign Policy article titled China’s Secretive Maritime Militia May Be Gathering at Whitsun Reef.
Taiwan and China
Taiwan has begun mass production of a long-range missile and is developing three other models, a senior Taiwanese official said, in a rare admission of efforts to build strike capacity amid growing pressure from mainland China. Taiwan's Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said developing a long-range attack capability was a priority. "We hope it is long-range, accurate and mobile," he said, adding research on such weapons by the state-owned National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology had "never stopped". The institute's deputy director Leng Chin-hsu said one long-range, land-based missile had already entered production and three other long-range missiles were in development. He added that it was "not convenient" for him to provide details on how far the missile could fly.
Meanwhile, Taiwan has also released its Quadrennial Defense Review, but it's not available in the public domain, I think. But a researcher from the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) has commented on this review. He highlights that the QDR includes the concept of "forcing the enemy to capitulate" and details the nation's development of asymmetric combat power. He also notes that the annual Han Kuang 33 exercise in May 2017, the MND, altered the term "decisive victory on the beach" to "decisive coastal victory" and adjusted its defensive strategy accordingly, signifying that the beach was considered the last line of defence. "This change was due to the Chinese military's focus on "beyond the horizon" operations in recent years, which entails carrying out rapid beach landings from outside the defending force's field of operations," he claims. Furthermore, he claims that the contents of the 2021 QDR are very similar to the 2019 National Defense Report. "However, the QDR emphasises the use of asymmetrical warfare to avoid enemy attacks head-on and instead strike at the invading force's centre and other vital points, using local geographic advantages in the Taiwan Strait," he claims.
Other Important Developing Stories
- Beijing has ruled out holding a military parade to mark the CCP’s centenary in July this year. “There will be no military parade,” Li Jun, assistant director of the Central Military Commission’s Political Work Department, told a press briefing in Beijing on Tuesday. But the Chinese military will hold a series of events such as seminars, forums and exhibitions to celebrate 100 years of CCP. In addition, the Central Military Commission (CMC) will confer awards to senior officials for their services and loyalty to the party. The military will also open a new Naval Museum and an exhibition centre about the PLA garrison in Hong Kong, where there have been large-scale anti-government protests over the past two years.
- The CMC has issued a circular honouring 10 military units and 20 individuals for their outstanding performance in logistics. Over the past years, the Chinese army has provided combat-oriented assistance and meticulously managed logistics support for military training, national defence and military reform, as well as accomplishing urgent, tough and dangerous tasks, the circular noted. The list of awardees was declared in the PLA Daily.
Also, read: What was the PLA doing at the Alaska talks?
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III. Research Papers and Testimony
PLA Professionalism
Dr Joel Wuthnow and Dr Phillip. C. Saunders published an article in the Jamestown China Brief on the PLA’s professionalism. They argue that new regulations which the CMC announced in January 2021 suggest a commitment to clarifying hierarchical relationships between officers, improving the officer management system, incentivising high performers, and recruiting and retaining officers with the right skills.
Why was this needed?
Earlier, the PLA had a grade-centric system based on PLA ground force structure, with every PLA organisation having a grade corresponding to its position in the organisational hierarchy, and officers, in turn, having a grade based on their positions in their organisation. Because of the lack of a commensurate number of ranks and grades and misaligned promotion cycles—officers typically receive a rank promotion every four years and a grade promotion every three years—officers at a given grade might have different ranks and vice versa. This led to confusing situations in which lower-ranked officers with high grades sometimes effectively outranked higher-ranked officers with low grades. Furthermore, structural reforms pursued under Xi created additional problems for a primarily grade-based officer system. Many organisations changed who they reported to and were reduced in grade to reflect their new responsibilities and position. In this context, the 2021 regulations aimed to create a clearer officer hierarchy centred on military ranks.
PLA’s 15 grade and 10 rank system, 1988-2020
CMC Chairman-Vice Chairmen-CMC Member-TC Leader-Former MR Leader-TC Deputy Leader-Former MR Deputy Leader-Corps Leader-Corps Deputy Leader-Division Leader-Division Deputy Leader- Regiment Leader-Regiment Deputy Leader-Battalion Leader-Battalion Deputy Leader-Company Leader-Company Deputy Leader-Platoon Leader
Admiral John C. Aquilino’s Testimony
USN Nominee for the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral John C. Aquilino, in his written testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee, said that he concurred with former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster’s assessment of the threat posed by China potentially seizing Taiwan. “The most dangerous concern is that of a military force against Taiwan. To combat that, the forward posture west of the international dateline is how Adm. [Phil] Davidson describes it – and I concur with that – forces positioned to be able to respond quickly, and not just our forces…Those forces combined with the international community, with our allies and partners – those nations with common values. Those two things would position us very strongly for the deterrence required,” Aquilino told the panel.
On India, he said that his priorities would be to maintain the momentum that has been generated by his predecessor and build information sharing and security agreements, support India’s defence transformation efforts through exchanges and exercises, continue to encourage India’s acquisition of US equipment to promote interoperability and increase military-military contacts throughout standing dialogues, senior leader contacts, and working-level exchanges. Read the full testimony here; there’s a lot more in the document.
Also, read Shuxian Luo and Jonathan G. Panter’s paper on China’s Maritime Militia and fishing fleets. They highlight the domestic sources of Chinese grand strategy that influence the PRC’s maritime policies and activities. Then, they describe China’s maritime militia and fishing fleets, their strategic purposes, and their strengths and limitations. Finally, they also address the challenges these actors pose to the US forces, emphasising the links between force protection and unintended escalation.
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IV. News Updates
-Do read this Bloomberg article on how China’s global drone sales could spark a global arms race
-A PLA Rocket Force’s missile brigade recently conducted a fully enclosed survival training, which included anti-fatigue, anti-starvation, anti-anoxia, jet lag and continuous upgrade tests, long-term confinement standby, full-staff and full-element full-process combat launches, etc. Furthermore, SCMP reports that the rocket force is also using virtual reality to train its soldiers to use missile systems.
-Peng Shilu, China’s chief designer of its nuclear submarine, nuclear power expert, and academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE) died in Beijing this week. He was 96 years old.
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V. Read More
-Prof Thomas J. Christensen’s article in Foreign Affairs on there will not be a new Cold War
-Prof Rory Medcalf et al edited document: The Future of the undersea deterrent (Must read)
-MERICS: Who is the CCP? China's Communist Party in infographics
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| The Takshashila PLA Insight is written by Suyash Desai, a research analyst at The Takshashila Institution. He has completed his M Phil from CIPOD, SIS, JNU. |
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