Highlights
Monitored: During February, the southern islands received above-normal rainfall while the central and northern islands received less. Over the 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 27% in the Northern islands; deficit by 15% in the Central islands and the southern islands are close to normal.
Predictions: With weak La Nina conditions established; dry conditions are set to prevail across Maldives from April-June 2021. The seasonal temperature remains climatological – perhaps the La Nina influence is countervailed by the prevailing anomalously warm ocean surfaces by the Maldives.
Contents and Links to Sections
1.Climatology
Monthly Climatology: In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of average rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is easterly and in northern islands, it’s south-easterly. Rainfall usually increase up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds.
2.Monitoring
Daily Monitoring:
| Date |
Rainfall |
| Northern Islands |
Central Islands |
Southern Islands |
| 6th March |
- |
- |
5 mm |
| 7th March |
- |
- |
- |
| 8th March |
10 mm |
20 mm |
- |
| 9th March |
40 mm |
60 mm |
10 mm |
| 10th March |
40 mm |
60 mm |
60 mm |
| 11th March |
40 mm |
60 mm |
30 mm |
| 12th March |
10 mm |
20mm |
- |
| 13th March |
5 mm |
10 mm |
- |
| 14th March |
10 mm |
40 mm |
5 mm |
| 15th March |
20 mm |
40 mm |
20 mm |
| 16th March |
- |
30 mm |
40 mm |
| 17th March |
- |
- |
- |
| 18th March |
- |
10 mm |
5 mm |
| 19th March |
30 mm |
30 mm |
- |
| 20th March |
10 mm |
5 mm |
20 mm |
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring
In February, southern islands received up to 10 mm and central islands received up to 5 mm above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,
shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 400 mm from an average of 1450 mm average
Central islands: Deficit of 250 mm from an average of 1700 mm average
Southern islands: Excess of 200 mm from an average of 1750 mm average
.
Caption: The figure shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month for Northern Maldives.
Image 1(left) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years.
Image 2(Right) caption:-Rainfall of past 365 days (black) compared to average rainfall in the previous 8 years.
image 3(middle) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years with above-average rainfall hatched in blue and below-average hatched in brown.
Click Here- To see monthly and seasonal monitoring pdf maps
Detailed regional charts are available in pdf for Northern Central Southern
Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:
1-10 Feb, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 20 mm rainfall
Central Islands: 100 mm rainfall
Southern Islands: 40 mm rainfall
11-20 Feb, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 5 mm rainfall
Central Islands: 60 mm rainfall
Southern Islands: 160 mm rainfall
3.Predictions
Daily Rainfall Forecast:
Image caption:- Daily Rainfall forecasts (up to 7 days ahead) from the IMD New Delhi is provided in figures below. These predictions are from the GFS (T574) model covering the entire south. Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Weekly and Daily Rainfall Forecast: NOAA GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 23rd Mar; up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; and up to 10 mm in southern islands on 24th- 25th Mar; up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands on 26thMar; up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central and southern islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands on 27th- 28th Mar; and up to 70 mm of rainfall in the central islands; up to 40 mm in southern islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands on 29th Mar.
4.Sea Surface and Atmospheric State
PACIFIC SEA STATE ( Text Courtesy IRI - March 10, 2021)
In early-Mar 2021, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere spring 2021. The official CPC/IRI outlook slightly favors La Niña development and carries a La Niña watch. (Text Courtesy IRI)
 Image caption:- The weekly average the departure of the Sea surface temperature from the historical average.
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
0.5 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.
MJO INDEX
The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 2 and 3 and it is strong in the next two weeks (22 Mar - 5 Apr 2021). MJO in phase 2 usually enhances rainfall over the Maldives.
Download Printable Report (Part1 - Summary)- Click Here
Download Printable Report (Part2 - Figures)- Click Here
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