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A Periodic Newsletter on
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Breakthroughs in Strategic Foresight 

 
            March 23, 2021               
 


 

Hi. It's Bill with two great posts this week. 

First, I am pleased to offer another of Hazel Henderson's fascinating articles.  This one is about the significance of the recent power blackouts in Texas. 

We also follow up our recent study of the Biden Administration with final comments from 14 of our faithful readers, many of whom are TechCast experts. You may recall the Final Results that were published recently.  That issue of TechCast Research was so popular that we received many comments on the overall results of the study.  Look over the responses below for an interesting deep dive that fleshes out the debate and offers thoughts on the validity of our forecast.    


Please send this newsletter around to your lists, and tell us what other hot issues you would like to study. After all the participation in our studies we have encouraged, it should be clear that TechCast Research is devoted to involving its readership.

We would like to make this YOUR newsletter, so what
would whet your interest?


Hope to hear from you.  Bill



William E. Halal, PhD
The TechCast Project
George Washington University  








 



 
 
Faith in Electricity?

Information Age Karma



Hazel Henderson
 

During the California fires of 2019, Silicon Valley social media and tech giants experienced rolling electricity blackouts, sometimes for days. This shock led to a dawning of the reality: their visions of global digital domination relied totally on electricity, still largely produced by fossil fuels causing the global climate crises.

Their dreams of continuing their digital takeovers of ever more industrial sectors: from Main Street brick-and-mortar retailing to local newspapers, manufacturing, law, medicine, entertainment and even shaping political activities and democracy itself, were now threatened by their lack of control of energy systems. Pull the plug and their dreams went up in smoke.

I explored this rude awakening as fires blazed in California in my Silicon Valley Karma and how the northern half of the state was reliant on one electricity and gas provider, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, while the south was similarly controlled by Southern California Edison. It turned out that both these private, for-profit regulated electric utilities were inadequately prepared for these fires and other climate crises, let alone those looming in 2020 and beyond. The California infrastructure of transmission lines was aging and the utilities’ vital electricity was delivered to customers on thousands of tree trunk poles, vulnerable to fierce winds in the state and fire risks from these very exposed wires! Such self-inflicted hazards had already been blamed for several deadly fires.

Regulators and Public Utilities Commissions charged with oversight of the power companies had failed to look ahead. They had also overlooked the dangers of their aging nuclear plants, some unfortunately sited on known earthquake faults. Their natural gas pipelines to homes and businesses were also in need of upgrading and had caused leaks and explosions in some neighborhoods. Now it was becoming clear, California’s vaunted reputation for innovation and its Silicon Valley technology titans, their libertarian venture capitalists, and storied universities and think tanks had fallen short.

How does this kind of short-sightedness happen? Especially as now revealed in the USA, a preeminent, innovative market-based democracy. And why does it continue, as we saw recently in the debacle of failure of public services, gas, electricity, and water in Texas? All these shortcomings of foresight, while endemic in human nature, often are exacerbated by over-reliance on markets and prices. This is the growing category termed market-failures. The greatest is climate change, and these market failures are now seen in the inability of financial markets to provide stable services or distribute food supplies. Similarly, in the current global pandemic, the failure to get adequate testing in the USA, and in spite of huge government subsidies to pharmaceutical companies which created vaccines, there were no wider plans other than to rely on the market to immunize actual people.

Markets, money, and prices are all useful tools and mechanisms and have been used by humans in local communities for centuries, in face-to-face village squares. These employed all kinds of money tokens, from shells, beads, and wampum to tally sticks, cattle, cigarettes, and today’s cryptocurrencies. Yet we must be aware of when these tools are useful and when they cause damage to others, the environment, and become market failures. The over-reliance on markets and their use in inappropriate situations are evident in the blackouts in California and Texas.

Reliance on prices fails to signal requirements for maintenance and the need for longer-term investments in future safety, performance, and resilience. Prices are always a function of human awareness, understanding of wider situations, and future needs. Forecasters and futurists, like me, have usually been ignored as alarmists, or bringers of unwelcome news in our scenarios of “what-ifs”. This happened to the US Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), set up in Washington, D.C. in 1974 on which I served as an advisor until 1980. OTA was shut down in 1996 because our many reports angered vested interests and incumbent market companies. Politicians used the argument that the market decides what technologies are developed.

Today’s worldwide scale of markets and financialization in its global casino are all operated on prices and money-based indicators. Prices are based on history, denial, or ignorance of future trends and overlooking the need for maintenance, repair, and regeneration of human societies and their infrastructures. So many markets continue to fail. Thus, costs of upgrading and repairing damage are skyrocketing. For example, hardening California’s miles of transmission lines and placing them safely underground, as in most European countries, would cost trillions of dollars.

So blackouts are likely to continue in California’s future, a wake-up call for Silicon Valley’s market-based libertarians and their ambitions for global domination. Some US billionaires now see their escape in hideaways in New Zealand, buying islands (forgetting about sea-level rise) or continuing their huge bets on space travel, satellites, and “terraforming” Mars! We hope that Texas pursues more rational future goals!

As I explored in Fixing the Money Meme, it’s high time to re-examine markets, prices, and money-creation, all important innovations and widely-useful tools for organizing human activities productively. We now also see the importance of using these ancient tools more appropriately in steering human and social development. For example, the money-measure GDP indicator still used widely is steering societies over the cliff. At last, it is being replaced by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, approved by 193 countries in 2015, see our webinars Steering Societies from GDP to the SDGs.

Lessons are clear, whether in California, Texas, or the larger market failures of climate change-driven fires, floods, hurricanes, as well as in pandemics. The latest lesson is the misdirection of internet-based social media platforms focused on profit and market penetration. Yet these new monopolies freely use taxpayer-funded research, platforms of the internet, satellites, fiber-optic undersea cables, and the network effects they provide.

Now governments are beginning to restrain these overgrown advertising-based giants, Facebook, Google, Amazon, Twitter, and others which also use their surveillance algorithms to influence and predict our behavior so as to sell this information, as described by Prof. Shoshana Zuboff in The Age of Surveillance Capitalism (2019). The USA and the European Union are now addressing these massive market over-reaches, as I reported in Steering Social Media Toward Sanity.

We at Ethical Markets advocate grounding the ownership of all personal information with citizens, by basing this ownership in English common law from Magna Carta, in the year 1215, which created the writ of habeas corpus, which assures that we humans own our own bodies. We update this with our “information habeas corpus “which adds that we also own our own brains and all the information they produce.

Back to news from Texas and its market-failures. Their politicians bought into the ideology of “market fundamentalism” purveyed by libertarian US-based oligarchs and their economists in think tanks, including the Cato and Heritage foundations and university courses, such as the University of Chicago. In a nutshell, they taught for decades that markets are good and the government is bad and inept. Texas politicians followed these dictates, echoed by Steve Bannon, advisor to Donald Trump, that government must be cut back, starved of tax revenues, and that “the deep state “must be dismantled. Much of this has hollowed out federal agencies, with thousands of qualified civil servants fired or resigning. The US FBI now cites these anti-government groups and white nationalists, the leading internal terrorist threats.

Back in Texas, politicians who despised government were elected and predictably refused to govern! The cold weather, similar to an earlier freeze a decade ago, froze up Texas electricity and water systems, as well as natural gas pipelines and a nuclear plant all supplying 75% of electricity. The un-weatherized wind turbines froze because they were designed for the Caribbean instead of those used in northern states and Europe. Their lack of foresight was soon outed as they tried to blame the Green New Deal!

Will the Texas market failure provide the needed lessons on when and when not to rely on markets and prices? Now Texas consumers are receiving sky-high electricity bills in the thousands of dollars, permitted by the Lone Star state’s market-based independent grid. Any scarcity will cause prices to spike. Former Texas governor Rick Perry claimed that Texas consumers would rather endure electricity blackouts than submit to federal government regulation as all other states in the USA. Their senator Ted Cruz left his freezing home for a weekend in Cancun, the Mexican resort, reinforcing the prevailing market view that consumers are on their own. A former Republican advisor, Oren Cass in his “Freeing the Right from Free-Market Orthodoxy”, Foreign Affairs, March-April, 2021, opines that conservative US politicians must get over their “market-fundamentalism” and learn when markets work and when they do not and cause great harm. We agree!

Everyone who is worried about rising levels of debt-to GDP due to efforts to overcome the pandemic and “ Build Back Better.“  At the First International Conference on Implementing Indicators of Sustainability and Quality of Life (ICONS ), held in Curitiba, Brazil in 2003 (see my “Statisticians of the World  Unite ! “,  InterPress Service, Oct 2003, at www.hazelhenderson.com), the 700 statisticians from around the world reported the need for GDP to install an asset side to its national accounts.  GDP only records as  “ debt “ all investments governments make in infrastructure: roads,  airports, sewage treatment, R & D,  universities, public health and other public goods and service.  But there is no asset account to balance these with the valuable, durable public assets they create.  If and when this correction to conform with all double-entry bookkeeping standards is finally made, the USA’s currently-calculated debt-to-GDP ratio of $100%, and of all countries’  debt-to-GDP ratios will be cut by up to 50%  ….with a few keystrokes! Economists, like Partha Das Gupta, are finally stepping out after 30  years and acknowledging the “ GDP- fetishism “ as  Joe Stiglitz calls it!

 


Reprinted from the WALL STREET INTERNATIONAL MAGAZINE, MARCH 2021


Hazel Henderson, Author of "Mapping the Global Transition to the Solar Age” and other books in 800 libraries worldwide in over 20 languages, is CEO of Ethical Markets Media Certified B. Corporation, producer of “Transforming Finance” TV series, and publishers of the Green Transition Scoreboard.

Author profile
 
 


 

Forecasting Performance of the Biden Era - Final Comments




 
 
 
Dennis Bushnell
 
From many very apparent indications the nation is deeply divided, has long been increasingly so. As the demographics/ political power continues to shift with regard to “diversity”, the 99% and 1% issue deepens, econometrics changes including the impacts of AI  and the shift away from an industrial age extractive economy to initially service and now wealth creation by inventing things, the now very apparent existential climate issues, and, literally, a crashing ecosystem, there is increasing angst. Biden has a prioritized agenda which he is apparently sticking to, which will bring the rudder on the ship of state closer to the middle in many aspects. The impacts of the major debt incurred due to COVID are to be determined. The economy, now living on a large credit card with this borrowing will be better for a while but the runout effects of the debt are at this level not well known. The COVID runout with regard to variations and the consequent probable need for vaccine updates, possibly many such can be addressed by the ongoing developments with regard to self-administered nasal applications, which are now in human trials. A much faster, cheaper solution to the current societal disrupting mass injections. Many of these issues previously resulted in such as the occupy movement, the Arab Spring and some opine BREXIT. Our transit through these many serious to near existential issues are liable not to be “pretty” in spots. It will take effort to keep our societal consilience intact.
 


Robin and Michael Richardson
 

Rebuilding Infrastructure  This seems to be misunderstood by our survey.  It is a necessity that we do a lot of heavy lifting in this area.  1. It employs the unskilled, 2. It benefits all states. 3. It is a spending way out of a recession, more jobs.  4. It is easy to finance.  How?  The 50-year municipal bond issue, shared by all 50 states and back by the fed.  Like an insurance guarantee.  Everyone wins and it just needs a strong leader to get all sides to see the value.  You borrow today’s dollars and payback with tomorrow's dimes.  
 
Reconcile Trump Supporters  This problem will not go away or get fixed easily.  It is dividing families and friends.  As long as out of office Trump keeps stirring the pot, and the GOP passes state laws making it harder to vote, we are in trouble as a society.  
 
Extend Universal Health Care No hope for a great outcome, unless we redo Medicare.   A gradation of Medicare for all with scaled costs and benefits with deductibles that have a banana curve could work.  But who will pass it and or design it?
 
Climate Control  My major disagreement with the survey.  Its world at large implications are very negative.  I do not believe we will control it or slow it down.  Not much will be accomplished until the scientific predictions are for the end of life as we know it.  Look how many people around the world do not mask, do not believe in Covid-19, think it is easy to overcome.  DO NOT BELIEVE IN THE SCIENCE. 
 
Almost everything else seems to be accurate in my estimation.  The only thing left out.  Possibility of a global war. 
 



 
Jacques Malan
   
 
Being the most cynical of the bunch (I suspect), I can unfortunately I do not agree with most of the positive set of conclusions in the summary. I have the uncomfortable feeling that this administration will go down as one of, if not the worst of all time.
 
Having given this some more thought, I can add two additional bits to ponder:
 
One, instead of the GOP fracturing and splitting, I suspect that it is the left that will suffer more turmoil during the next four years. Biden has already backtracked on a number of election promises held dear by the likes of Bernie and AOC, who may just take a whole voting block with them at some point. Issues like BLM and LGBTQ will continue to divide the rest of the “liberals” from the “leftists”, and depending on how hard this admin pushes, they are likely to lose the “moderate” left completely.
 
Two, Trump is still getting huge support, simply because he openly opposes these “leftist” agendas, and he is not seen as a politician with empty promises. Strangely enough, the most appealing thing about Trump is the fact that he is NOT politically correct. Conservatives are sick and tired of walking on eggshells and he gives them a way to express themselves. The GOP needs to be careful or he will retain enough support to run again in four years….. If that happens, the blame will be squarely at Biden’s feet for not LISTENING to the VALID concerns from the conservatives.

The “United” States certainly does not seem to be “United” anymore. It is an extreme example, but should the country remain “hung” at around 50/50 for a prolonged time, I can see some conservative states push such an agenda. Personally, as a “Conservative Libertarian” this would not necessarily be a bad outcome, as long as it can be done peacefully.
 
 

 
John Freedman
 
It might be useful to provide median as well as mean. When there is a significant outlier - such as in the Combat Climate Change category - the median (and a comparison of the median vs. the mean) provides a useful metric.
 
What are the implications for the US? 
The results predict persistent division much more so than unity or rapprochement. 4 of the 5 areas ranked lowest for positive development involve societal division (Reconcile Trump Supporters, Decrease Polarization, Resolve Racism, and Improve Income Inequality). These predictions of ongoing division may even be understated in that the tone of most comments is supportive of Biden, and any pro-Biden bias would logically lean forecasters toward valuing or possibly even over-valuing his capabilities and role as a potential unifier. Underlying division bodes ill for legislative progress and action on key policy issues. So my assessment of the overall tone of the conclusions in aggregate is more negative than I would have hoped or predicted. 
 
The world at large?  
A fractured U.S. body politic as predicted by the aggregate data could have varying effects on the world depending on how it affects U.S. foreign policy and influence, but it will undoubtedly have a decidedly negative effect in that will embolden anti-democratic illiberal regimes. This has already happened to a considerable degree and is likely to continue or even accelerate.  
 
What's missing?
More 'hard data' to underpin opinions would be very welcome.


 
 
Kastuv Ray
 
I think the predictions are fairly accurate. Biden has a very challenging task ahead of him and it doesn’t help when your predecessor was very divisive. I do hope that we see positive change and that the Republicans don’t act as a blocker. No one wants to see what happened at Capitol Hill occur again. I think the threat that Trump poses has not gone away and there may be a rise in homegrown extremism which could cause issues in terms of social cohesion. We could have another health pandemic, it may not be coronavirus but could be caused by toxic air fueled by pollution and the resultant effect on climate change. As technologies evolve there is always the threat of cyberwar and military confrontation. In the business world, this is translated into competition without which we cannot survive. I am an optimist and I believe that the Biden Administration will bring about positive change and pave the way for a brighter future.


 

Andrew Micone
     
 
The results of the survey, in aggregate, reflect a consensus opinion that the Biden administration will nudge the country in a positive direction in terms of getting a hold of the pandemic, environmental policy, economic growth, and resuming global relations. However, on the individual question level, though opinion skews positive, the bimodal distribution of views reflects that the panel perceives two probable outcomes for the future. The division of opinion reflects the country's division; we live in a country with two visions for its future. For example, the legislature may be in the best position it has been in decades to breach the partisan divide. Instead, one party is standing still as demographic and cultural trends shift away from it, while the other moves further left, embracing heterodox economic theories that could prove a dangerous side alley for economic growth. The threat is that, if the past is prologue, we find ourselves in the modern Weimar Republic. The cure to division is to unite behind a shared vision, which requires finding common ground within a house divided, and insofar there seems no political will to do so. The alternative is reflected in the survey results -- the country is pinning its hopes on fate and hoping for the best outcome.


 
Clayton Rawlings
   
 
If there was any hope of reconciling the ardent Trump supporter, I think the first 50 days of Biden's presidency has shown it will not happen, as long as Trump flirts with another run for president. While Democrats were passing a relief package for the working poor and the unemployed, we heard about Dr. Seuss and Mr. Potato Head. Our new US Attorney, Merrick Garland, has made prosecuting all who were part of an insurrection a priority. As they start to go to prison and do real jail time we will see another wave of resentment and "white grievance" from this crowd. Republican candidates will continue with the divisive culture war for the simple reason that it works. 
 
Now that solar power is actually cheaper than burning coal, we will see an end to that industry. We have a chance to convert the remaining coal plants while also building alternative fuel infrastructure. For this to happen there needs to be a way for Republicans to save face when abandoning coal to allow for a bipartisan move to upgrade our energy mix and the aging electrical grid. 
 
The real battle for the next two years is voting rights and gerrymandering. Everything else is a sideshow. The filibuster is on its last leg so getting to 51% will become winner take all. Republicans are out-numbered by democrats in sheer numbers. Without voter suppression and gerrymandering they will be unable to get to 51%. Without the filibuster, they will be powerless to stop democratic wish lists. This fight is for actual political survival and will get ugly.
 
If the filibuster dies, we will get comprehensive immigration reform and will attempt to deal with the broader problems in a meaningful way. Democrats will not agree to anything that does not include a path to citizenship by dreamers. Republicans will not agree to anything that includes a path to citizenship. The filibuster has allowed each side to checkmate the other for four decades. If the filibuster survives, so will the stalemate.
 
Taxes will be raised on the top 5% but income inequality is so skewed at this point that is would require radical steps, that no one can agree upon, to get things to a more rational state. We will see nothing more than window dressing on this issue.
 
As long as Biden continues to use neutral language and requests that we work together, he will maintain high approval ratings, in spite of sniping from far-right. So far he seems content to not hit back in a forceful, caustic way, which may keep his approval numbers high.
 



 
Mike Marien
   
 
Nice summation and modestly useful. 
 
I am very pleased with Biden and his appointments so far.  What a contrast to “the other guy” and his kakistocracy!
   


 
Margherita C. Abe
   
 
I think that this study captures the stresses facing the Biden administration and the country very well.  The tension is expressed here as bimodal distributions on many issues with skewing either toward zero or toward 10  depending upon the facet under examination. What is really of concern is that most comments acknowledge that factions who disagree will come together and compromise to govern with only a great deal of difficulty, if at all. Government by discussion, debate, and compromise is dead.  Whether democracy continues to exist  under these circumstances is questionable.

 
 
John Meagher
   
 
I think the summary/report findings and your overview comments were accurate for the 18 persons sampled and what you had to compile. I would suggest that you could apply a standard deviation to the responses in the final report for the 11 questions. Your observation that there was a significant spread for many questions is accurate and that may suffice, but it would be interesting to see numerically how close or far apart responses were amongst the issues surveyed.
 
In terms of what’s missing and what else should be studied perhaps Education in the U.S. under the Biden Administration would be a choice. An observation looking at the final results of the 6 issues with ratings of 5 or below, 4 (Reconcile Trump Supporters, Resolve Racism, Relieve Political Polarization), another more tangentially (Improve Cybersecurity and Military Threats) specifically for disinformation cyber, have a strong educational component associated with them.  One could argue all issues surveyed have an educational component and they do, but these ones are information challenging at present and rated low for performance success by the group.
 
Near future U.S. citizen education emphasizing critical thinking, reasonable and unreasonable argumentation, distinguishing fact from fiction,  logic, hard science, social and political science, and other educational features is important and needed.  I think this has implications not just for these issues but for the U.S. as a better unified Republic and the world in general.  I think U.S. education will be improved in the next 4 years under Biden Administration.  What educationally will remain the same and should remain the same? What has changed educationally and will change in the future? Lessons learned during and post-Covid pandemic will change educational tools and approaches. Hopefully, this can be used to strengthen school and educational systems to produce a better-informed decision-making U.S. citizenry and positively influence these issues.

 
 

Yul Anderson
     
 
Trump supporter reconciliation, racism, political polarization, infrastructure rebuild, reducing the federal debt, and equalizing wealth and income gaps are important. The conclusions show that while these issues demand the attention of a Biden Administration, the consequences of no action will fuel unintended outcomes.
 
Power and wealth will coalesce, allowing a few new entrants. The income gap will widen to such an extent that the super-wealthy seek greater protection and create more secluded communities only accessible by plane, boat, privately secured roads and rail. Possibly half of Florida will be a secured community for example. In regard to universal health care, a calculated casualty indicator will be agreed to as well as agreed poverty levels and accepted racial inequality (not everyone gets the best schooling, $300k house or access to healthcare or a job). Climate change support, while strong, will be necessary to support life and drive off-world exploration and low earth orbiting communities as planned by Musk and others (it has been shown that people can drive industry at home safe behind the internet).
 
The planet moves as a system that is self-propelled and is already on target to some destination and ultimate event.  The Biden Administration will be short-lived as the deliverables will fall short, the US will seek a different type of leader for the next-gen population.
 


 
Carlos Scheel Mayenberger
   
 
Excellent. And to my surprise,  climate change finally receives a priority. I hope that now come the actions and try to balance the budget spent on defense on natural issues. And think a little more about to reinforce internal weaknesses...is like the covid-19 ...
 
I think the best way to fight against it is to reinforce our internal defenses.... otherwise, we become just statistics...



 
Clayton Dean 
   
 
I think the conclusions are right directionally but can be potentially inaccurate given topics, though I'd argue being inaccurate on a topic or two is largely immaterial.  In the following, I'll attempt to answer the questions you posed, "How accurate do you think the conclusions are? What are the implications for the US? The world at large?  What's missing?"   Since email is cheap, I'll dive in with cause and implications.

Back in your capstone course for the GW MBA, we discussed a phenomenon often seen: technology accelerating and outstripping society's ability to manage it.  In other words, the things that used to bring so many of us comfort:  Church,  The Shriner's Club, the Chamber of Commerce, having beautiful roads and cheap electricity  etc.... are increasingly tenuous and leading to 'sturm und drang' (with apologies to Rousseau).   You can see examples of this struggle to make sense of these changes everywhere.  For example [and I don't wish to oversell or deliberate on the merit of social media] but new media channels have undeniably rendered us ever-more fragile.  We can no longer have discussions with people who hold different opinions.  We no longer assume or try to understand our fellow citizen's framework and assumptions, instead of ascribing literally the worst assumptions possible.  Quite literally the idea of the American Pub, where we have lively, raucous debate, where we speak our opinions loudly and boisterously, and after discussion often moderate ourselves -- is dead.   I don't see this as dooming America.  Rather I see this period as a lull between waves, the trough, as we work to find things that work better for today's society.   We aren't there yet.

So, as I see it, we aren't really a nation of two visions.  We are a nation of no vision because it hasn't coalesced.  Just as true capitalism sharpens a company and crony capitalism softens it -- the singularly unique environment post-WWII (little manufacturing competition, large parts of the world destroyed, unsettled populations) had softened America in many aspects: economically, socially, culturally, etc...  Economically we had a lot of tailwind and have [arguably] shifted into the service economy and the IT revolution which has forced us to re-learn how to compete anew.  But socially and culturally this shift has NOT happened.  And, of course, it's (extremely) unsettling for those being left behind.   And so, while pure capitalism is perhaps the best model we have economically, with reverberations culturally and socially, these same cultural and social stresses are causing a rethinking of capitalism as we things like guaranteed income, equity concerns, and so on.... these are extraordinary, yet normal, 'storming and norming' as we try to figure out what works.  The analogy of business transformations: that you are changing out the engines while the plane is flying, is equally true on a National and cultural level.  These are early days as we figure out just who we're going to be.   Pick almost any topic:  COVID, road usage, the election, etc... and I think the 'disconnect' is obvious, clear, and striking in ways that are self-evident and don't require me to further highlight.

You also see this manifest in (Western) Europe and other developed nations.  Interestingly the more tightly a nation is controlled, and I'm talking about China (or even North Korea) the less of this 'stress' is evident -- though still very perceptible in many ways which I'll spare elaborating to this audience be it Nationalism, Brexit, treatment of refugees/immigrants, vaccinations, Rights of minorities (Hong Kong, Uyghur, Tibet, Roma, Syrians), and rights to privacy,  and so forth.

Finally the implications.  Things are going to get worse before they are fixed.  Or said another way, "we haven't hit rock bottom yet."  The implications are that we'll continue to have sub-standard infrastructure:  roads, health, power, internet.  I think society is really 'immature' in the sense that we haven't lived through enough of the bad to say 'enough' because we still have internet, we still have air conditioning and COVID appears to be heading for a robust cure.  I'd argue these amount to 'bread and circuses with the hard work not really happening.  We have to have several more terrible leaders (not just in America, but anywhere) where the trains stop working, where Texans can't heat their homes, where a critical mass of people are sick/poor before we're going to be ready to be mature enough to want to put it back together.  
 
I'm confident Biden will fix a few things around the edges without being able to fix anything systemically.  In time we will need a 'Great Person', an FDR, a Churchill, who is savvy, strong, and politic enough to push through the changes.  But we aren't ready for this Great Person.  Yet.

Going forward I would try to better target the 'guideposts' towards a sicker, or healthier, America.  When does a leader next get over 60% of the popular vote?.  We haven't had that Nixon in 1972.  Or 55%?  (Reagan in 1984, Nixon, LBJ, Ike, and FDR --> going back in history).   What's the next 'social media' for people?  Does America adopt a UBI?   When does the gap between classes get back to XYZ level?   Where are the political philosophers and their philosophies these days -- where is the next big idea?     I mention these questions as I think more trends around those sort of health metrics is key to getting a handle on when the next wave hits.  And, in the US under our current system, need that kind of unity (55%+) to get anything done.  Until then it's whistling into the storm.
 

 
 

 

 

  

Letters
 
 
TechCast always encourages letters, comments, and suggestions. 


 

 

 
Keynote on Autonomous Vehicles Conference
 

 

 
TechCast gave a keynote speech at an international conference on transportation featuring autonomous cars on November  2, 2020. The conference was organized by the Intelligent Transport Society of South Korea.

TechCast's Bill Halal organized his talk around the five principles of Global Consciousness. 

 






 


 
TechCast Briefs Angel Investors
 
 
TechCast founder, William Halal, kicked off the annual meeting of the Angel Capital Association’s Virtual Summit on May 12 with his keynote on The Technology Revolution.  Among his many points, Bill outlined how AI is causing today’s move beyond knowledge to an Age of Consciousness, and that business is now altering corporate consciousness to include the interests of all stakeholders. Angel investors are concerned about the social impacts of their companies, so this news was well-received, especially as Bill stressed this historic change could be a competitive advantage.

 


 

 Armed Forces Communication and Electronics Association
 
Prof. Halal spoke on the topic of AI, noting TechCast’s forecast that AI is expected to automate 30% of routine knowledge work about 2025 +3/-1 years and General AI is likely to arrive about 2040. Expanding on the same theme delivered at ACA, Bill explained how today’s shifting consciousness is likely to transform, not only business but also the government, the military, and all other institutions. Halal also spoke at the annual AFCEA conference on the

 

 

We Invite Your Ideas
 
TechCast offers exciting new possibilities to use our unequaled talent and resources for creative projects. I invite you to send me your questions, fresh ideas, articles to publish, consulting work, research studies, or anything interesting on the tech revolution.
 
Email me at Halal@GWU.edu and I'll get back to you soon. Have your friends and colleagues sign up for this newsletter at www.BillHalal.com.


Thanks, Bill
 
William E. Halal, PhD  
The TechCast Project 
George Washington University
 


 

 

TechCast Research is Published By:
 
The TechCast Project www.TechCastProject.com

Prof. William E. Halal, Founder
George Washington University

Prof. Halal can be reached at Halal@GWU.edu

 
The TechCast Project is an academic think tank that pools empirical background information and the knowledge of high-tech CEOs, scientists and engineers, academics, consultants, futurists and other experts worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields. Over 20 years of leading the field, we have been cited by the US National Academies, won awards, been featured in the Washington Post and other media, and consulted by corporations and governments around the world. TechCast and its wide range of experts  are available for consulting, speaking and training in all aspects of strategic foresight.
 
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