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Strong Jobs and Economic Data Fuel Gains
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Last week, most of the major benchmarks grew steadily, although the small-cap Russell 2000 Index recorded a modest loss. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index outperformed the broad market S&P 500 Index, but stayed below its February peak. Tech shares also regained the lead within the S&P 500 during the week, helped by solid gains in Apple and Microsoft—which together account for roughly 40% of the sector’s market capitalization. Casino and cruise line shares were also especially strong, while energy stocks lagged with oil prices pulling back early in the week. Growth stocks handily outperformed value shares, narrowing the performance gap for the year.
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Trading got off to a strong start thanks to the previous week’s monthly payrolls data, which was released when the market was closed for the Good Friday holiday. The Labor Department reported that employers added 916,000 jobs in March, well above consensus estimates of around 650,000. The reopening of bars and restaurants and the rebound in travel were clearly at work, with 280,000 jobs added in leisure and hospitality industries. February job openings, reported Wednesday, hit almost 7.4 million, the highest since January 2019. This is interesting, given that Thursday’s initial jobless claims had hit their highest level (744,000) in three weeks. Hopefully, some of these openings find the jobless!
Much of the rest of the week’s economic data also surprised on the upside. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) gauge of service sector activity jumped to its highest level on record, mirroring the ISM’s earlier report that factory activity had reached its highest level in four decades. Details in the ISM report were also strong, with broad-based strength in employment, new orders, and business activity easily offsetting weakness in inventories and export orders. In times of economic growth like these, still deep in a pandemic, that we are reminded and must never forget that “…God will supply every need of yours according to his riches in glory in Christ Jesus” (Phil: 4:19).
If there was a worrisome element in the data, it is reports of higher prices for production inputs. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that producer prices rose by 1% in March, roughly twice consensus estimates. The jump pushed the year-over-year increase to 4.2%, the largest in nearly a decade. Investors seemed to be keeping an eye on supply chain pressures, particularly delays at U.S. ports and the global semiconductor shortage, which has led to temporary shutdowns in automotive production lines.
President Biden’s $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan continues to boost growth hopes. Prospects that the plan could soon become law seemed to increase following a procedural ruling that suggests it could be passed by Democrats on a party-line vote in the Senate. Investors are also encouraged that President Biden stated he was willing to negotiate how much corporate taxes would be raised to pay for the bill.
The train keeps rolling, and there is still much room for opportunity. How far this train travels will depend, largely, on how long the fuel of good news and positive reports continues. As we chug along, our “conductors” are hard at work preparing to make any necessary track shifts in the weeks and months ahead.
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Sources: Yahoo Finance, Reuters.com, and JP Morgan Market Insights
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