Dear Reader,
I would like to take this opportunity to share with you our recently published Occasional Paper/Discussion Document on China’s Nuclear Ambiguity and its Implications for India. It’s a research collaboration between The Takshashila Institution, Bangalore, India and Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, India.
Kartik Bommakanti (ORF) and I study how China’s nuclear ambiguity increases risks of mischaracterisation and can have a destabilising impact on the Indo-Pacific region, especially India.
The paper explores China’s increasing nuclear ambiguity and its implications for India. The first section discusses the differences between the Chinese and Western scholarly community’s understanding of essential concepts like ‘deterrence’, ‘coercion’, and ‘ambiguity’. The second reviews the development of China’s nuclear forces and strategy and outlines the factors that create ambiguity. The third section examines the role of ambiguity in shaping China’s nuclear posture and trajectory, and the paper closes with an analysis of the implications of China’s nuclear ambiguity for India.
We highlight two areas where India ought to be most concerned: the size of China’s increasing nuclear warhead stockpile and its evolving nuclear posture that involves a growing number of dual-capable missiles. In response, the paper recommends that India will not only have to consider a shift in its posture but also supplement its current arsenal with non-nuclear strategic capabilities such as cyber, electronic and space weapons for establishing credible deterrence.
Here’s the link to the Takshashila version of the document. You could also read the ORF version using this link. Only layouts are different, but the content is the same.
I hope you enjoy reading this document. Kartik can be reached at kartik@orfonline.org.
Thank you, Take Care and Stay Safe.
Sincerely,
Suyash Desai.
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| The Takshashila PLA Insight is written by Suyash Desai, a research analyst at The Takshashila Institution. He has completed his M Phil from CIPOD, SIS, JNU. |
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