China-India Brief; Three New Warships; Japan and China: The Senkakus; Taiwan; SCS; China's Arctic Ambitions; China in Space; Military Expenditure

I. The Big Story: China-India Brief

In the first communication since they met in October 2019 for the second informal summit, China’s President Xi Jinping sent a condolence message to Prime Minister Modi over the COVID-19 pandemic in the country.

“China is willing to strengthen the anti-pandemic cooperation with India and provide support and help to the country,” read Xi’s message.

State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi also had a telephonic conversation with India’s External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar. The latter tweeted that they discussed the international cooperation aspect of the public health response to this difficult situation. “Highlighted the importance of supply chains and air flights being kept open in these circumstances. Welcomed his assurances in that regard, as also more openness to Indian chartered flights,” tweeted Dr Jaishankar. The two also discussed the LAC situation, but I will highlight that later.

China’s Foreign Ministry’s statement reads, “Wang Yi said China is very concerned about the new round of COVID-19 infections in India. As a close neighbour and partner, China feels the same for India’s current challenges and is willing to provide India with support and assistance within its capacity. Wang Yi said that to support India’s fight against the epidemic, China is willing to take the following measures according to India’s needs: First, continue to encourage and support Chinese companies to speed up production and provide India with anti-epidemic materials. Second, facilitate customs clearance and transportation for India to purchase anti-epidemic materials. Third, organise video exchanges between health and epidemic prevention experts from the two countries to share anti-epidemic experience and effective practices.” (Machine translation).

Wang Wenbin, the spokesperson of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, followed this up in his daily press conference claiming that all social sectors in China are busy taking actions (for helping India). “The Red Cross Society of China, local governments, many non-governmental organisations and Chinese enterprises are trying their best to collect the anti-epidemic supplies urgently needed by India and deliver them to the Indian people as soon as possible,” said Wang.

He added, “Since April, China has exported more than 26,000 ventilators and oxygen concentrators, more than 15,000 monitors, and nearly 3800 tons of medicinal materials and drugs to India. Chinese manufacturers of anti-epidemic supplies and medical equipment are racing against the clock at full speed to ensure production. In the next few days, more anti-epidemic materials will be sent to India."

Sun Weidong, China’s Ambassador to India, also tweeted, “China has supplied more than 5000 ventilators, 21569 oxygen generators, over 21.48 million masks & around 3800 tons of medicines to #India, according to statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China.”

India purchased these supplies would be more appropriate than "Chinese supplied" and "Chinese exported." Nevertheless, any help at this point, although purchased, is more than welcomed.

Border Problems

Dr Jaishankar also tweeted that the Chinese foreign minister and he discussed the border situation. “Also discussed the issue of full and sincere implementation of the Moscow Agreement of complete disengagement at all friction points along the LAC and full restoration of peace and tranquillity in Eastern Ladakh. Agreed to continue discussions in this respect.” But there was no such mention in Wang Yi’s readout.

However, China’s defence ministry held its monthly press conference this week (It’s held on the last Thursday of the month). Senior Colonel Wu Qian, the defence ministry spokesperson, said, “The remarks by the Indian side are completely inconsistent with the facts. Regarding the situation in the western section of the China-India boundary, China has explained the facts in detail, and the blame should not be placed on China.” This was in response to India’s Chief of Defence Staff’s statement during the Raisina Dialogue, where he said that China tried to change the status quo using disruptive technologies.

Meanwhile, Lt Gen (Dr) Rakesh Sharma wrote an interesting Issue Brief for Vivekananda International Foundation. He emphasises that the Depsang problems are no legacy issues.

It must categorically be stated that the patrolling had continued, as planned, since the April/May 2013 stand-off, except when halted due to face-offs with PLA patrols or terrain conditions. Even post-face-offs, commanders on the ground would attempt to re-do the task at the earliest, sometimes within a day or two! This would imply that a minimum of eight to ten patrols per year from 2013-2019 would have roughed in the most difficult terrain and weather conditions for five to six days of patrolling of PPs 10-13.. To now state that we were not able to reach our LOP since 2013 as PLA was blocking our movement is pure heresy, and challenging the integrity and honour of devoted ITBP/ Army soldiers, units formations and commanders up-the-chain!

In 2020, however, as per open-source, there is a mutual block on either side of Bottleneck on Raki Nalla, thereby denying Joint Indian patrols to reach LOP and PLA patrols to come towards Burtse. The ‘source’ stating that, “…Indian troops are being blocked in Depsang “since before 2013 as well and after that”, most certainly mandates verification of facts.

Meaning: The government’s claim that Depsang is a legacy issue and would be resolved separately should not be taken at face value. Also, do check the map from the Issue Brief. It’s an appropriate description of what’s happening in eastern Ladakh.

Additionally, India Today’s Shiv Aroor reports that China has quietly hardened its position in eastern Ladakh. Chinese Army has reinforced its presence in eastern Ladakh’s depth areas with permanent accommodations and depots. “India Today TV learns that imagery shows that China’s winter deployment positions have been reinforced with permanent structures, accommodations and military buildings in a long arc through the Aksai Chin bulge, comprising depth areas from the friction points of the India-China standoff. These include Xaidulla in the southwestern part of Xinjiang Autonomous Region, a strengthened Chinese radar site at Piue that is just across from Ladakh’s Chip Chap valley. The military outpost at Kyrmmgo Traggar across the LAC from Hot Springs and Gogra Post. The 10,000 permanent Chinese troops positioned at Kangxiwar and Rudok have been reinforced with 10,000 additional temporary troops according to one intelligence estimate,” claims the report.

Furthermore, the PLA has for the first time inducted Army’s air defence units in its air force command chain in the border region with India. The new joint system is part of the western theatre command’s (WTC) focus on war preparation and exploration of the establishment of a joint air defence system, reported the PLA Daily. The report called the new formation “a solid step… taken in the joint combat and joint training”. The new system was tried out at a drill in the western theatre, the report said without sharing details of the location. The high-level exercise was a drill for checking the combat readiness of the Army’s air defence forces, but the orders, during the drill, were given by the PLA air force command stationed in the area - a likely first for the PLA.

On the Indian side, India’s Army Chief M M Naravane visited Eastern Ladakh and Siachen to review the Indian Army’s operational readiness. Gen Naravane was accompanied by the Northern Command Chief Y.K Joshi and was briefed by Lt Gen P.G.K Menon, 14 Corps Commander, who is leading the talks with China.

China-US-India, and COVID

China didn’t miss any opportunity to blame the US as the essential medical supply got withheld and delayed. As expected, the Global Times went on a rampage to declare “the QUAD hypocrisy,” “the US selfishness,” “US vaccine hoarding”, etc.

For instance, check this cartoon from the Global Times

Similarly, Zhou Bo, a senior researcher at Tsinghua’s Strategy and Security Research Centre, also attacked the US claiming, “Everyone knows India’s condition. The situation in the United States has eased; it has more vaccines. So why not support India at this time? Especially at the summit last month, the four countries (QUAD) reached an understanding that the United States would provide raw materials and India would produce 1 billion vaccines, which would then be supplied to Southeast Asian countries. Now the situation has changed drastically, and India itself has encountered such big trouble… And the fact that the US government delayed the raw materials for vaccines to India indicates that the India-US relationship is fragile. So I think the Indian government should take this as a warning and think better about its future diplomacy.”

Check this Atlantic piece by Dr Thomas Wright on the Biden administration’s missteps on pandemic diplomacy. But the article also claims that the Biden administration did correct its initial mistake in not responding forcefully to the COVID-19 crisis in India.

More importantly, check Prof Rajesh Rajgopalan’s piece in the Print. He claims that there was no excuse for the US delay when India needed its help the most. “But equally, there is little doubt that this is not indicative of the value of the US-India strategic partnership. It is difficult not to suspect that for many traditional opponents of this partnership, from both the Right and Left of the Indian political spectrum, this became an excuse to undermine the partnership…The simple truth is that neither the US nor India are particularly moral or ethical actors in international politics, though both may be, at least comparatively, better than most others. What correlates with the closer relationship is not morality but something relatively straightforward: Necessity. This is a partnership that has a very specific purpose – balancing against China. This is not a favour India is doing the US, nor the other way around. It was America’s material power that was attractive to New Delhi, not its moral power… International politics is too unforgiving an environment for wallowing in historical grievances at the cost of national security today.” Read the full article, it’s extremely interesting.

Finally, two more points before we move to the next section.

1) The Financial Times reports that China plots regional influence push as India battles the COVID crisis. The article claims that China is making inroads into India’s backyard with vaccines and medical assistance. The recent video conference between India’s South Asian Neighbours (excluding India), where Bangladesh asked for a supply of vaccines, Nepal was offered medical equipment and materials, are a few examples of China’s pandemic opportunism in South Asia.

2) The South China Morning Post reports that melting glaciers threaten China’s plan to build the world’s biggest hydroelectricity project on the lower reaches of Yarlung Tsangpo (Bramhaputra river), which will have implications for India.

Read More

- Inspired by our recently published Occasional Paper, Kartik and I write in the National Interest on China’s Nuclear Ambiguity and its Implications for India.

- ORF Occasional Paper on Strategies for a Two-front Dilemma

II. Developing Stories

China Commissions 3 New Warships

Xi attended the commissioning of three new warships at the naval port in Sanya, South China’s Hainan province. It was also the PLA Navy (PLAN) day. Alongside commissioning of the three vessels, the Changzheng-18, the Dalian and the Hainan, Xi also presented flags to the captains and commissars of these three vessels.

The Changzheng-18 is an SSN, the Hainan is the first Type 075 amphibious assault ship, and the Dalian is the Type 055 destroyer/cruiser. This was the first time that the CMC’s Chairman commissioned three big vessels at the same time. It’s also the first time that three big vessels are put into service the same day. You could find details about different Types of Chinese ships in this CRS report.

Here are Numbers of Certain Types of Chinese Ships since 2005

Source: CRS report.

The latest CRS report also highlights that China could have 400 battleships by 2025 and 425 by 2030. However, one also has to factor in the mid-life maintenance and repair costs for the already existing fleet, which would start impacting soon in this decade for the large fleet that China has commissioned over the past two decades.

Interestingly, in the recent MND press conference, Senior Col Wu Qian gave two different answers for similar questions related to the commissioning of these three vessels. When he was asked about the relation between these vessels and the South China Sea, he said, “The commissioning of relevant warships has nothing to do with the regional situation, nor is it aimed at any specific country or target. China is committed to maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea, and there is no change in this policy and position.” However, when he was asked about the commissioning of Type 075 and Taiwan, he gave an ambiguous answer.

Japan and China: The Senkakus/Diaoyus

China has tried to reassert its claims to the Diaoyu Islands by publishing a high definition map and region survey. China’s Ministry of Natural Resources released this map this week. “The report … supplements and improves the basic geographic data of the Diaoyu Islands and its affiliated islands, and provides important support for the management of the Diaoyu Islands’ resources and environmental protection,” the ministry said.
The ministry added that the maps were based on historical survey data and high-resolution satellite remote sensing surveys. The report also includes some photos of the island and islets taken from survey vessels sailing close to the site. The chain consists of five uninhabited islets and three barren rocks, with the largest covering 4.3 sq km (1.66 square miles).

Meanwhile, Japan published its 2021 Diplomatic blue book this week. For now, it’s only available in the Chinese language. It mentions China 273 times, discusses the China threat, criticises the recently passed National coastguard law and claims that the military buildup and activities in the South and East China Seas have become serious security concerns for the region. The blue book also highlights abuses in Xinjiang and the crackdown on Hong Kong as areas of concern.

Japan’s Defence Minister said this week that Japan would hold military drills with the US and France in May 2021. “The joint drills will be held at the JGSDF’s Kirishima training ground and Camp Ainoura in the Kyushu region and include amphibious operation exercises,” claimed the Defence Minister.

Meanwhile, The Global Times reports that the Liaoning aircraft carrier task group crossed the Miyako Strait again on Monday and sent an aircraft near the Diaoyu Islands on Tuesday. The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force spotted a PLA Navy flotilla consisting of six warships, namely the aircraft carrier Liaoning, the Type 055 large destroyer Nanchang, the Type 052D destroyers Chengdu and Taiyuan, the Type 054A frigate Huanggang and the Type 901 comprehensive supply ship Hulunhu, which passed through waters between Okinawa Island and Miyako Island and sailed north toward the East China Sea.

Check this article by Derek Solan from China Aerospace Studies Institute claiming that Beijing’s new normal in the skies around Japan. He claims that since 2012, Beijing’s intrusion into Japan’s ADIZ has increased. It peaked in 2016 but has plateaued since then. Similarly, the number of times that the JASDF intercepted PRC aircraft began increasing in 2009, and both that number and the number of times that the JASDF intercepted aircraft over the East China Sea were on upward trends from 2009 to 2019. But since 2020, the JASDF’s aircraft scrambles against the PLA aircraft dropped, most likely due to Japan’s new policy of limiting interceptions to those aircraft that seem “likely” to violate Japan’s airspace.

Two options ahead for Tokyo: First, Lock unidentified aircraft with land and sea-based fire control radars. Second, use unmanned aircraft. Both options have limitations, though.

Taiwan and China

The chance of a conflict involving China over Taiwan “should not be discounted,” but Australia will work with its allies in the region to try and maintain peace, Australian Defence Minister Peter Dutton said this week. “There is the militarisation of bases across the region. Obviously, there is a significant amount of activity, and there is animosity between Taiwan and China,” added Dutton. China’s Foreign Ministry has reacted angrily to this. “Australia is sick, needs to take medicine,” said China’s MFA spokesperson. He also added that Australia is entirely responsible for the deterioration of the Australia-China relationship.

Meanwhile, the Economist published a cover issue this week claiming Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait as the most dangerous place on earth. The article claims that Taiwan must devote fewer resources to big, expensive weapons systems that are vulnerable to Chinese missiles and more to tactics and technologies that would frustrate an invasion. America requires weapons to deter China from launching an amphibious invasion; it must prepare its allies, including Japan and South Korea; and it needs to communicate to China that its battle plans are credible. This will be a tricky balance to strike. Deterrence usually strives to be crystal-clear about retaliation. The message here is more subtle. China must be discouraged from trying to change Taiwan’s status by force even as it is reassured that America will not support a dash for formal independence by Taiwan.

Another article from the issue claims that China’s visible capabilities and veiled intent are grounds for alarm. Its scorn for Western opinion, as over Hong Kong, is a bad sign. The war over Taiwan may not appear imminent in Beijing. But nor, shockingly, is it unthinkable.

Taiwan, meanwhile, commissioned the first of a fleet of coastguard ships that can be converted into warships to bolster Taipei-controlled islands’ defence in the South China Sea amid growing threats from mainland China. The 5,000-tonne patrol vessel Chiayi – Taiwan’s largest – to the island’s coastguard, along with the launch of another similar frigate on Thursday, came two weeks after the Taiwanese navy launched its first modern amphibious assault and transport vessel, Yushan, to meet its needs in the disputed waters.

Taiwan and the US also inked a deal to inspect its Patriot III vessel at the undisclosed US military base for a total of NT$16.42 billion (US$589.64 million). Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) said it would inspect its Patriot III missiles after administrative errors were corrected. The Control Yuan pointed out last month, the Air Force had failed to comply with project approval procedures for its Patriot III missiles. The missiles will now be tested in eight batches from 2023 to 2030, with 48 items per batch over seven to eight months. It is expected the testing will be completed before September 30, 2030. Additionally, the MND recently confirmed that it has purchased Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3) Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) systems and expects to complete delivery between 2025 and 2026. The new missiles have a longer reach and are larger, allowing only 12 units per launch vehicle as opposed to 16 for the previous Patriot variant.

Also, read Taiwan bans recruitment for jobs in China to combat brain drain.

The South China Sea

The European Union (EU) called out China this week for endangering the peace and stability of the South China Sea. It urged all parties to abide by the 2016 tribunal ruling, which Beijing had rejected. Earlier, the EU adopted a new strategy to boost its presence in the Indo-Pacific region. A more detailed strategy will now follow the 10-page document in September, foreign ministers agreed at a video conference, saying they would seek to work with "like-minded partners" to uphold basic rights in the Indo-Pacific region. But the EU diplomats have repeatedly claimed that the plan is not anti-China.

Meanwhile, the US has ramped up reconnaissance activities near China's coast under Joe Biden's administration, leading to a recent close encounter between the country's warships, Beijing warned this week. Chinese Defence Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian said operations had increased by more than 20 per cent for US warships and 40 per cent for planes in and around waters claimed by China, compared with the same period last year under Donald Trump's administration. He added that this increase was "destabilising" and had led to a close encounter in early April when the guided-missile destroyer USS Mustin had to be warned away as it conducted a "close-up reconnaissance" of the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and its battle group.

In addition, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said this week that he would not withdraw navy and coastguard patrolling from the disputed South China Sea, despite Beijing’s multiple warnings. “I’ll tell China, we do not want trouble, we do not want war. But if you tell us to leave – no. There are things which are not really subject to a compromise, such as us pulling back. It’s difficult. I hope they understand, but I have the interest of my country also to protect,” said Duterte. Furthermore, his defence minister said that the country was considering building structures in areas that Manila claims in the South China Sea, as he accused China of doing so, despite a 2002 agreement barring new or expanded construction in disputed waters. “The reason we did not build structures in the past was an agreement that no one should build anything there. However, China violated that,” said Gen. Cirilito Sobejana.

Elsewhere, Vietnam’s Communist Party Central Committee’s General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong and Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc met Chinese State Councilor and Minister of National Defense Wei Fenghe in the Vietnamese capital Hanoi. The two sides discussed the South China Sea issues and signed an MOU on strengthening international military cooperation between the two countries.

Read this SCMP article claiming Vietnam is building a maritime militia fleet to challenge Chinese activities in the region.