Highlights
Monitored: During April, the southern islands received above normal rainfall while the central and northern islands received less.Tropical Cyclone ‘Tauktae’ originated near the northern Maldives on May 10 with wind speeds of up to 170km/h - 185km/h (according to IMD at its peak). It tracked along the Western coast of India until it made landfall in Gujarat on the 15th May. This led to extreme rainfall over northern and central parts of the Maldives from 10th to -15th of May due to the long-range.
Predictions: With Enso neutral conditions established; dry conditions are set to prevail across Maldives from June -August 2021. The seasonal temperature remains climatological. The Deep Depression over the East-central Bay of Bengal intensified into Cyclonic Storm ‘Yaas’ and heads towards the north Odisha-West Bengal coast at a speed of 155 km/h to 165 km/h, gusting to 185 km/h on May 26. There could be long range impacts on the Maldives.
Contents and Links to Sections
1.Climatology
Monthly Climatology: In June, average rainfall usually is about 250 mm in the northern islands and 150 mm in the southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually westerly but with low speeds. In July, the entire country receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change. In August, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed are similar to previous months.
2.Monitoring
Daily Monitoring:
| Date |
Rainfall |
| Northern Islands |
Central Islands |
Southern Islands |
| 8th May |
- |
5 mm |
- |
| 9th May |
10 mm |
- |
- |
| 10th May |
60 mm |
60 mm |
30 mm |
| 11th May |
60 mm |
80 mm |
60 mm |
| 12th May |
130 mm |
100 mm |
130 mm |
| 13th May |
60 mm |
40 mm |
20 mm |
| 14th May |
130 mm |
100 mm |
80 mm |
| 15th May |
20 mm |
60 mm |
30 mm |
| 16th May |
- |
- |
- |
| 17th May |
10 mm |
- |
- |
| 18th May |
- |
- |
- |
| 19th May |
10 mm |
- |
- |
| 20th May |
- |
- |
- |
| 21st May |
5 mm |
- |
- |
| 22nd May |
30 mm |
10 mm |
- |
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring
In April, southern islands received up to 10 mm above average rainfall while remaining islands received less.
.
Caption: The figure shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month for Northern Maldives.
Image 1(left) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years.
Image 2(Right) caption:-Rainfall of past 365 days (black) compared to average rainfall in the previous 8 years.
image 3(middle) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years with above-average rainfall hatched in blue and below-average hatched in brown.
Click Here- To see monthly and seasonal monitoring pdf maps
Detailed regional charts are available in pdf for Northern Central Southern
Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:
1-10 May, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 80 mm rainfall
Central Islands: 80 mm rainfall
Southern Islands: 80 mm rainfall
11-21 May, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 250 mm rainfall
Central Islands: 250 mm rainfall
Southern Islands: 250 rainfall
3.Predictions
Daily Rainfall Forecast:
Image caption:- Daily Rainfall forecasts (up to 7 days ahead) from the IMD New Delhi is provided in figures below. These predictions are from the GFS (T574) model covering the entire south. Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Weekly and Daily Rainfall Forecast: NOAA GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands on 25th May; up to 70 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 20 mm in southern islands; and up to 10 mm in central islands on 26th May; up to 130 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 20 mm in southern islands; and up to 10 mm in central islands on 27th May; up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern and southern islands; and up to 10 mm in central islands on 28th May; up to 20 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 29th- 30th May; and up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in southern and central islands on 31st May.
4.Sea Surface and Atmospheric State
PACIFIC SEA STATE ( Text Courtesy IRI - May 12, 2021)
In mid-May 2021, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere summer 2021. The official CPC/IRI outlook likely persist ENSO-neutral condition through the summer. (Text Courtesy IRI)
 Image caption:- The weekly average the departure of the Sea surface temperature from the historical average.
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
0.5 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.
MJO INDEX
The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 5 & 6 in the next week (23 May – 6 June 2021). MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 27th – 31st May and significantly suppress during 1st – 5th June over the Maldives.
Download Printable Report (Part1 - Summary)- Click Here
Download Printable Report (Part2 - Figures)- Click Here
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