I. The Big Story: China-India Brief
In an interview with New18, India’s Army Chief Gen M.M. Narvane said that the situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) post the disengagement has been cordial. “Both sides are observing the disengagement process. There has been no transgression of any kind. The talks continue. We had the 11th round of talks followed by the WMCC meeting. These talks will continue, but we must be talking to each other; it’s a continuous process.”
On whether China is building permanent structures and fortifying their side of the LAC with tunnels, barracks and shelters, Gen Naravane said, “Construction development is a continuous process. You don’t want substandard facilities when you have such a large deployment on the border. Obviously, he (China) is improving his facilities, infrastructure and storage, and so are we. But we are monitoring each of these developments, and let me assure you that we are in no way lacking.”
He also said that the troop level continues to be the same as it was during the height of the stand-off - that is 50-60 thousand troops. “The disengagement has happened, but there has been no de-escalation. That’s why the troop presence in the whole front, right from Ladakh up to Arunachal Pradesh, continues. We have to be ready to be deployed in the long run too.”
Elsewhere, in an interview with ANI, Gen Naravane discussed the challenges for troops on the border due to the COVID-19 pandemic. “The Army has a twin-track approach to deal with the second wave. First - post preservation and second - augmentation of infrastructure against the pandemic. The number of cases in the Indian Army has shown a downward trend,” claims Naravane.
After Gen Naravane’s remarks, India’s External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar reiterated that the India-China relationship is at a crossroads. The direction of the bilateral ties depends upon whether Beijing adheres to various agreements of maintaining peace and tranquillity along the border. Speaking at an Indian Express-Financial Times event, Dr Jaishankar said, “I think the relationship is at a crossroads. And which direction we go depends on whether the Chinese side would adhere to the consensus, whether it would follow through on the agreements, which we both have done for so many decades. Because what is very clear in the last year is that border tensions cannot continue with, you know, cooperation in other areas.” He added that the stabilisation of the border drove the economic relationship and ties in other sectors between the two countries through the 1980s and 1990s.
Meanwhile, the recent satellite imagery shows that the PLA has been making minor adjustments along the LAC deployment in Ladakh. India Today reports:
- Some of the forward PLA positions near Gogra post, which witnessed heavy build-up in July 2020, but later saw partial disengagement after military-level talks, continue to have Chinese posts and vehicles according to the latest commercial satellite imagery. A comparison of optical satellite imagery from February 2021 near Gogra post, with the SAR imagery of the same area from April 12 of this year, confirms the status quo in the vicinity.
- However, some of the spots earlier seen acquired by the PLA in Hot Springs appear to have undergone minor recalibrations. The rear positions of the PLA near Hot Springs, which saw the construction of permanent structures as well as bunkers and adjacent roads last year, continue to be occupied by the PLA.
Here’s recent imagery from Rutog near Pangong Tso that shows the scale of deployment. It matches what Gen Naravane said; both countries are fortifying the rear since the de-escalation has not happened yet.
Source: @detresfa_
Furthermore, Hindustan Times reports that until last year, brigades under Xinjiang Military District were equipped with older equipment like the Type 88 battle tanks, type 63 armoured personnel carriers, etc. However, 2021 has brought a wave of new weapons for this military district. The new arrivals include the PHL-03 multiple rocket launchers, the PCL-161 self-propelled howitzers, the PCL-181 self-propelled howitzers, the Type 15 light tanks (at least ten tanks delivered), the ZBL-09 type vehicle and a Type 09-based ambulance (which was already serving in Xinjiang). Furthermore, the PLA's 84th Army Aviation Brigade based in Wujiaqu also has the Z-20, Z-8G and Z-10 helicopters.
“These changes could be attributed to the tensions with India along the LAC. Tibet had been prioritised for new equipment long before Xinjiang, “ugly stepsister.” Xinjiang was finally thrust into the limelight after India refused to back down against Chinese territorial aggression in the areas of Galwan and Pangong in 2020,” claims the report.
Meanwhile, the PLA is also carrying out military exercises in the depth areas facing eastern Ladakh. A report claims, “The Chinese troops are carrying out their exercise well within their traditional areas with distances at some places ranging from 100 km and beyond.”
Notably, last year, troops from such exercises were diverted to the border resulting in a stand-off between the two countries. The Indian Army officials claim that they are keeping a close watch and have alerted their troops on the border.
There were some reactions in the Chinese newspapers on Indian media outlets reporting about the PLA troops’ military drills near the Indian border. According to the Global Times (Chinese), these are hyped claims by the Indian media outlets on routine summer deployments by both armies. “No Indian government officials have spoken on the two countries’ military presence along the border and hyping against China came from the Indian media citing an anonymous source, reflecting an excessive precautionary mindset among some individuals in India,” claims the report.
Elsewhere, China has completed building a highway including a 2km mountain tunnel in a remote part of southeastern Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), which ends near the border with Arunachal Pradesh. The highway cuts through the world’s deepest canyon, the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon, close to the Indian border village of Bishing in the Upper Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh. The village of Bishing is located in Arunachal’s Gelling circle, which touches the McMahon Line, the de-facto Sino-India border in the region. The highway is part of China’s ambitious plans to build roads and tunnels along the length of the LAC. The new highway has cut down the travelling time between the Chinese border county and the nearest city area of Nyingchi prefecture by eight hours.
Another report claims that China has constructed one more village, the Jiagang village, Rutog County, Ngari Prefecture. It’s close to the current stand-off location between China and India in eastern Ladakh. It’s a part of China’s Xiaokang (well off) border defence villages project, a push for poverty alleviation spelt out in the 19th Party Congress. Under this initiative, China plans to build 600-800 border villages in the Tibet Autonomous Region.
Read More
- Sushant Singh’s article for the Hindu: The road for Ladakh is paved with disruptions
- Amb Shyam Saran’s for the Print: India needs to be more India, not China
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II. Developing Stories
China in the Space (Mars and Moon)
China’s Zhurong Mars rover landed safely on the surface of Mars last week. The 240-kilogram Zhurong rover touched down after three months of preparations in orbit and around 9 minutes after entry into the Martian atmosphere. The critical entry, descent and landing sequences were carried out successfully, with a final hazard avoidance hover phase allowing selection of a safe final landing spot. The rover will then begin an initial 90-day mission to explore and analyse the local area, climate, magnetic field and subsurface. The achievement marks complete success for China’s Tianwen-1 mission, the country’s first independent interplanetary expedition, which launched in July 2020 and entered Mars orbit on February 10. It aims to return data on potential water-ice deposits, weather, topography and geology.
President Xi Jinping congratulated the Tianwen-1 team. “The landing left a Chinese mark on Mars for the first time. It is another landmark progress in China’s space industry development. Thanks to your courage in the face of challenges and the pursuit of excellence, China is now among the leading countries in planetary exploration. The country and people will always remember your outstanding achievements,” said Xi.
Here are some pictures from Mars sent by the Zhurong Mars rover. (Check the link)
The landing made China only the third nation to touch down safely on Mars, after the United States and the Soviet Union. Read this NYT article for details about China’s Mars mission.
In the past two weeks, I have gotten curious about China’s space activities. Henceforth, I will try to devote one section every fortnight to this subject. It also helps me to be updated.
Last week, I read about China’s lunar activities. Sharing a few things here.
It’s a document by Dr Marsha Freeman for China’s Aerospace Studies Centre (CASI). She claims that China’s lunar missions are by and large a culmination of a tireless, nearly 30-year effort by a Chinese scientist to develop the plans for lunar exploration, gain the approval of a broad scientific community and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
China’s lunar plan has three parts:
1) Unmanned probes
2) Manned landings
3) Creation of a lunar base
The first part is further divided into three parts: Orbiting, landing and sample return. A critical component of China’s lunar missions is the discovery of Helium-3 on the moon. China is vocal about developing this new resource for fusion fuel. Scientists in Russia and India have also shown interest in this enterprise.
Here’s a timeline of China’s space achievements, which also includes its lunar achievements (Check the link). Its future missions include Chang’e-6 South Pole sample return, Chang’e-7 comprehensive exploration of the South Pole and Chang’e-8 test key advanced tech on the far side of the Moon.
The South China Sea
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has rebuffed a call from China to withdraw vessels from disputed areas of the South China Sea and said he would not bow to pressure, even if it jeopardises his friendship with Beijing. The Philippines has boosted its presence in contested areas of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), including Thitu island, near Chinese military installations, in defiance of the months-long presence of hundreds of Chinese boats and militia. “We have a stand here, and I want to state it here and now again that our ships are there ... we will not move an inch backwards,” said Duterte.
The Philippines also protested against China’s moratorium on fishing in the South China Sea. “The Philippines does not recognise China’s unilateral imposition of a fishing moratorium in the South China Sea for the period 01 May to 16 August 2021…China cannot legally impose nor legally enforce such a moratorium in the West Philippine Sea.” China’s annual fishing moratorium extends far beyond China’s legitimate maritime entitlements under UNCLOS and is without basis under international law.
However, Rodrigo has banned his cabinet from speaking in public on the South China Sea dispute after key ministers engaged in a war of words with Beijing. While Duterte has been reluctant to confront China over the issue, his foreign and defence secretaries have repeatedly criticised Beijing for its refusal to withdraw the ships from the disputed waters.
Do check this long piece by Ryan Martinson on China’s Maritime Militia. Also, check this detailed piece by Zachery Harver on China’s Maritime Militia in the West Philippine Sea and who administers them, how they are trained and the PLA Veterans’ role in training and crewing the Militia.
Meanwhile, the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet claimed that the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Curtis Wilbur had conducted freedom of navigation operations in the vicinity of the Paracels. “Unlawful and sweeping maritime claims in the South China Sea pose a serious threat to the freedom of the seas, including the freedoms of navigation and overflight, free trade and unimpeded commerce, and freedom of economic opportunity for the South China Sea littoral nations,” it said in a statement.
China’s Southern Theatre Command’s spokesperson responded to this. “It also has seriously damaged peace and stability in the South China Sea. The US behaviour violates international law and basic norms of international relations, increases regional security risks, and is prone to misunderstandings, misjudgments and accidents at sea. It is unprofessional and irresponsible.”
@CollinSLKoh has compiled a list of US’ FONOPs in the region since 2015.
In the meantime, China is also conducting live-fire drills across three theatre commands in its periphery. It is China's second such drill in just over a month, with observers seeing the exercises as part of efforts to counter US military challenges.
China and Taiwan
The 37th annual Han Kuang war games scheduled to begin in July may be scaled down as Taiwan is experiencing a sudden spike in COVID-19 cases. The soldiers mobilised for Han Kuang 37 will include 8,000 reservists, however, that number will be confirmed again two weeks before July 12, the starting date, according to Taiwan’s Deputy Defence Minister Chang Che-ping. Taiwan will reorganise its Army’s command structure to emphasise joint operations between its services and give regional commanders more operational flexibility in the event of a conflict, the country’s defence minister told lawmakers. The reorganisation will see the various corps and defence commands of the Taiwanese Army renamed as distinct combat theatre commands. The leaders of each combat theatre command will be responsible for coordinating the forces of each of Taiwan’s armed services in each region, in effect forming Joint Chiefs of Staff to enhance interoperability and coordinate operations during conflict or peacetime operations, such as disaster relief.
Meanwhile, USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG-54), a guided-missile destroyer, transited the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday, drawing protests from Chinese military officials. USS John McCain (DDG-56) made the last transit on April 7, days after Chinese officials announced that the aircraft carrier Liaoning and its escorts would drill near the island. A Chinese military spokesman said Tuesday’s transit was “sending wrong signals to the ‘Taiwan independence forces, deliberately disrupting and sabotaging the regional situation and endangering peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”
@CollinSLKoh has compiled the list of US passages through the Taiwan Strait since 2017.
Furthermore, according to the China Cross-Strait Academy’s report, tensions across the Taiwan Strait have risen to the point where the risk of armed conflict is at “an all-time high.” It’s a Hong Kong-based think tank, newly founded and led by Lei Xiying, a committee member of the Communist Party-backed All-China Youth Federation. The report indexed a risk level of 7.21 for 2021, on a scale of minus 10 to 10. But they also said that the index had been rising steadily since 2000, when the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party took power in Taiwan, ending the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang’s 55 years of rule.
Check the latest issue of the Global Taiwan Brief: It has a write up on the US-China tech war and its impact on Taiwan’s semiconductors industry. Also, read this long-form article on how the US should reconsider to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Tibetan Elections and White Paper
Penpa Tsering, 53, has been elected Sikyong or President of the Dharamshala-based Tibetan government-in-exile, officially called the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA). Tsering defeated Aukatsang Kelsang Dorjee by 5,417 votes. Dorjee, a former representative of Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama, polled 28,907 votes. Tsering contested the 2016 Sikyong election but lost to the outgoing Lobsang Sangay. He was appointed to the North America Representative of the Dalai Lama in 2016 but removed a year later on dereliction of duty after he levelled allegations of corruption against Sangay. He faced an inquiry, and the matter also reached the Tibetan Supreme Justice Commission. Tsering won the case.
The US State Department congratulated Tsering for his victory. “The United States congratulates the next Sikyong. We look forward to working with him and the CTA to support the global Tibetan Diaspora,” tweeted Ned Price, spokesperson, US State Department. Taiwan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs also congratulated the Sikyong elect Tsering.
China’s government can have no role in choosing the next Dalai Lama, especially since its communist leaders don’t even believe in religion, whereas the succession of the Tibetan spiritual leader is a deeply religious matter. This was Tsering’s one of first statements after coming to power.
China’s Tibet White Paper
The State Council, today, issued a white paper on Tibet. I have only read the last two sections titled Resolutely Safeguarding National Unity and Social Stability and Embarking on a New Journey in the New Era. Sharing some insights here:
The paper claims that the Western anti-China forces attempt to create disorder in Tibet to contain China. It highlights the CIA’s mid-1950s activities of training Tibetan separatists in Colorado for carrying out violence in Tibet, Western forces’ activities in the 1980s to create disturbance and “the role of the 14th Dalai Lama and group to divide Tibet.”
The final section has guidelines for governing Tibet:
We must uphold CPC leadership, socialism with Chinese characteristics, and the system of regional ethnic autonomy. We must uphold Xi Jinping's strategy of governing the frontiers and ensuring stability in Tibet. We must focus on safeguarding national unification and strengthening ethnic unity in the work in Tibet. We must govern Tibet in accordance with the law, bring prosperity to Tibet and its residents, unite the people in one heart, and lay a solid foundation for its long-term growth. We must take into consideration both the domestic and the international situation. We must focus on improving people's lives and strengthening unity in socio-economic development. We must facilitate ethnic exchanges, communication and integration. We must develop religions in a Chinese context, and handle religious affairs in accordance with the law. We must prioritise eco-environmental protection. We must strengthen the Party, especially in its political convictions.
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III. Research Papers
PLA Overseas Operations in 2035
Dr Joel Wuthnow et al. published a report on the PLA’s overseas capabilities in 2035. They claim that China’s presence in the far seas is growing and will expand further as the PLA moves towards its 2035 goal of informatisation. Currently, a single service conducts existing overseas activities. PLA GFs are involved in UN missions, PLA AF began performing over-water bombing training flights in 2015 and Marine Corps staff the Djibouti base. However, in coming years, the PLA could emphasise joint operations in distant areas. But conducting more complex overseas operations would require substantial improvements in PLA capabilities, including a better developed global command structure, increases in sealift and airlift assets, a stronger overseas joint logistics system, and more effective joint commanders.
Broadly, it will need to:
- Develop joint command and control for overseas operations
- Extend theatre commands’ responsibilities (Because, most probably, forces are responsible for this now – So this means the PLA Navy is responsible for its operations in the Indian Ocean and not the Southern Theatre Command).
-Establish new global command
-New Joint Task Force mechanism
-Joint Doctrine, Training and Education
-Joint logistics support.
The PLA remains a regional military power but has made impressive strides toward a more effective global operational capability. They conclude that the PLA of 2035 will most likely continue to focus on combat operations along China’s borders and in the near seas along with more limited types of operations farther afield. This would leave the US military as the predominant global military power into the next decade, with China exercising global influence primarily through economic and diplomatic means.
China’s Military Diplomacy
Meia Nouwens published a paper for IISS on the evolving nature of China’s military diplomacy. She claims that China’s COVID-19 military diplomacy began in March 2020, when the PLA sent protective equipment and clothing to Iran. In February 2021, the PLA began donating COVID-19 vaccines to overseas militaries. Between March 2020 and April 2021, the PLA has provided military medical assistance or donations to 56 countries worldwide and a United Nations peacekeeping mission. In all but two cases, the PLA’s medical-diplomatic activities were directed at the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. Furthermore, geographically, the PLA mostly engaged with countries in the Asia–Pacific and Africa (31 out of 56 countries), while it engaged to a lesser extent with countries in the Middle East and North Africa (8), Latin America (7), Central Asia and Central Europe (6), and the EU and Balkans (4). This geographic distribution correlates with China’s prioritisation in foreign policy. “The focus on the BRI and South-South diplomacy also reflects China’s wider diplomatic narrative of forging South-South relations and ‘win-win’ cooperation through the BRI. Therefore, these countries did not represent new diplomatic activities, but rather reinforced existing diplomatic and aid relationships,” she writes. The PLA’s military-diplomatic activities relating to the coronavirus demonstrate that the PLA will increasingly play a greater role in China’s foreign diplomacy, in line with President Xi’s instructions.
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IV News Updates
China’s Bomber Base
Over the past few years, satellite imagery has shown a unique hangar and support facility emerging at a Chinese PLA AF bomber base in the eastern part of the country. This self-contained installation, which is detached from the main base and sits inside its own high-security perimeter, appeared ahead of reports that one of the units at this base, the 30th Air Regiment, appeared to be operating the WZ-8, a large high-speed and high-flying rocket-powered spy drone designed to be launched in mid-air from the H-6N missile carrier aircraft. The construction has also come amid persistent rumours about the imminent public debut of China’s H-20 stealth bomber.
Japan to Scrap 1% GDP Cap on Defense Spending
“We must increase our defence capabilities at a radically different pace than in the past,” considering China’s increased capabilities, as well as new areas of warfare such as space, cyber and electromagnetics, said the Japanese Defence Minister. The statement signals that Japan is ready to do away with its long-standing 1% GDP ceiling for annual defence spending, and reflects the country’s intent to bolster its own national defence capabilities, as Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga promised U.S. President Joe Biden last month. “The security environment surrounding Japan is changing rapidly with heightened uncertainty. We will properly allocate the funding we need to protect our nation without considering outlays in relation to GDP,” said the Japanese Defence Minister. It comes amid repeated Chinese coastguard incursions into the waters around the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands, which China claims and calls the Diaoyus.
China puts Upgraded HQ-9 Missile to Test
The South China Morning Post’s Minnie Chan reports that the PLA AF has put an upgraded version of one of its most advanced air-defence missile systems, HQ-9, to an extreme test in unfamiliar terrain. The report claims that the exercise was meant to show the hardware at full stretch as the military presses on with plans to develop a modern combat-ready force. “During the exercise, a ground-to-air missile brigade of the PLA AF was deployed into unknown territory for a simulated confrontation between red and blue armies. Using the missile system, the brigade knocked down four target drones with four shots,” claims the report. The exercises were reportedly conducted with stealth under the joint operations of different combat units, including the air-defence missile battalion and strategic support troops equipped with early-warning radar and electronic surveillance systems. “Special forces played the role of the rival blue army with electromagnetic interference devices to confuse operations for the new missile type,” the report claims.
Also, read PLA-PAP participates in Emergency-Mission 2021
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V. Read More
- China Military Modernisation: Updated Version by Kartik Bommakanti and Aditya Shivamurthy
- Chinese Nuclear and Missile Proliferation: An Update: CRS
- The Origin of COVID: The Bulletin
- Signs of Disquiet in CCP as 20th Congress Draws Near: Jayadeva Ranade
- China’s Military Fusion and World-Class Universities: ASPI
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This newsletter is written by Suyash Desai, a research analyst, China Studies Programme, at the Takshashila Institution. He has previously completed his M Phil from CIPOD, JNU. |
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