The History of Bad Ideas: Part 4 |
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Dear Listener
In this issue, we return to our History of Bad Ideas, examining outdated claims of modernisation, Fukuyama’s widely contested notion of the ‘End of History’, the ‘steady state theory’ as a discredited alternative to the Big Bang theory, and the problematic process of party members choosing party leaders. There’s also a piece by David on the assisted dying debate and, as usual, some connected links from the PPF archive.
Warmest regards, Team PPF |
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| David Writes: Assisted Dying and Democracy |
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The decision of the British House of Commons on 29th November to take forward a bill that would legalise assisted dying was entirely of a piece with the direction of travel in British social legislation over the past few generations. Though the vote was close – 330 to 275 – and the debate was passionate, the outcome was no surprise. In the end, parliament has invariably chosen to give UK citizens greater control over the key decisions affecting their own lives. From the Suicide Act (1961) to the Sexual Offences Act (1967), the Abortion Act (1967), the Divorce Reform Act (1969), the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Act (1990), the Marriage (Same Sex Couples Act) (2013) and the Divorce, Dissolution and Separation Act (2020) (aka the no-fault divorce act), government has been willing to put more and more trust in individuals to decide on matters of life, death, relationships and reproduction (aka the really big stuff) for themselves. It hasn’t all been plain sailing – the Thatcher government made a futile attempt at pushing back against the normalisation of gay ‘lifestyles’ – but it has been overwhelming. Liberal ideas of personal autonomy have won the argument. However, the vote last week highlighted something else: this increased trust in citizens does not extend to trusting in them to take political decisions. Assisted dying is something on which almost everyone has a view and of which many people have personal experience (that is, of what death without assistance can be like). MPs were not voting on the question as experts but as individuals, in a so-called ‘free’ vote that allowed them to follow their own consciences (which in a number of cases meant following their religious convictions). Many talked about trying to canvass and represent the views of their constituents. Others doubtless paid attention to opinion polls which suggested majority public support for the legislation. But in the end parliament asserted its sovereign right to decide what citizens are allowed to decide about. It was 600-odd MPs who made the call, not the rest of us. It did not have to be this way. The question could have been put to a referendum, which would at least have confirmed one way or the other what opinion polls can only hint at. Alternatively, a citizen’s assembly made up of randomly selected members of the public – rather than that narrow subset of the public known as professional politicians – could have offered a different kind of representative view. But professional politicians have shown no real appetite to enhance the scope for citizens to have a say on political matters, even as they have given them more of a say on almost everything else. Why is this? Some of it, no doubt, is simply a reluctance to give up on what they think is rightfully theirs – politicians don’t usually hand over power unless and until they have little choice. Some of it is having been scarred by experience. The few attempts over recent decades to involve the voting public in the biggest constitutional decisions have tended to satisfy no one. The Brexit referendum in particular seems to have left many politicians (on both sides of that argument) vowing never again. Finally, some of it is perhaps a fear that greater political autonomy would undermine the moves towards greater social autonomy because the public are often less enlightened on these questions than the politicians. Lest we forget, Covid lockdowns were very popular – and when polled most people wanted more, not less of them. Likewise, politicians have long held up the example of capital punishment to illustrate the pitfalls of direct democracy, on the assumption that the public would re-introduce it given the chance. Polling on that question is not straightforward – there is a consistent majority in favour of the death penalty for child murder but a growing consensus against capital punishment on principle. Yet there does appear to be a view that liberal progress, which takes time and careful thought, needs to be insulated against knee-jerk democratic responses. You can’t have both. But I suspect this ringfencing of individual social choice from individual political choice is going to be harder and harder to sustain. There is a widespread and growing mistrust of representative democratic institutions, fuelled in part by the mismatch between the control we expect to exercise over our personal lives and the extent to which we are still expected to let politicians decide for us in other areas. Personal autonomy increasingly extends to where, when and how we get information and engage in communication. The outlets for public anger and frustration are everywhere. Populism is, among other things, pretty popular. There are good reasons for professional politicians to be alarmed at the thought of giving the public a greater direct say in the political process. Yet social autonomy cannot be insulated from political autonomy forever.
P.S. I made a conscious resolution not to talk about Trump this time. But I’m writing this in Paris, where I’m about to do an event at the legendary Shakespeare & Co. bookshop. The shop (where we are also staying a few nights) is directly opposite Notre Dame and on Saturday world leaders are gathering here for the grand re-opening. They include Trump - despite the fact he is not actually head of state yet. Shakespeare & Co. is, among many other things, a beacon for Americans in Paris and in the past the Clintons have passed through on their travels. Trump is not known as a great reader, but still… If I bump into him in the bookstore I’ll be sure to write about that next time. |
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Throughout the 20th century, British politicians frequently touted the country's technological innovations as evidence of their leadership in the global race for progress. The optimism surrounding these advances often suggested that they would shape the future. Yet, looking back today, many of these innovations now seem quaint or even outdated. Indeed, while some innovations revolutionised industries, others serve as reminders of the uncertainty surrounding predictions of the future. Generally, these politicians were protesting too much; they were also a little hung up on the hovercraft. |
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A timeline of Technological Boosterism |
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1962: Harold Macmillan, advocating the need to stay ‘in the front rank of scientific and technical invention’, praised nuclear power stations, new automatic machinery, ‘pre-eminence in aero engines and many aerial components’. |
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| 1963: Rab Butler boasted about the world’s first commercial hovercraft service, Europe’s largest scientific library and powerful computers, in response to criticisms from Labour’s Harold Wilson. |
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1969: Harold Wilson, aiming to illuminate the triumphs of British industry, highlighted Rolls-Royce jet engines, the hovercraft, carbon fibre and antibiotics as evidence of British industrial prowess. |
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| 1975: Margaret Thatcher championed Britain’s technological prowess by highlighting the invention of the computer, the fridge, the jet engine, penicillin, the radar and the hovercraft. |
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1991: Neil Kinnock celebrated Britain’s role in creating the steam engine, electric motors, radio, TV, penicillin, jet engine, fibre optics and LCDs. |
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| 1997: Tony Blair linked innovations like radar, Concorde and the hovercraft to national identity, stating that ‘the British don’t fear change. We are one of the great innovative peoples.’ |
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| Tony Blair’s first Labour Party conference speech as prime minister rammed home his ‘modernisers’ message. The mission was to ‘modernise the country’. The goal was to ‘modernise and win’. And who were ‘the real modernisers’? ‘The British people’. |
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| Blair is still the arch-moderniser, adapting his message to the age of AI. Here at the 2023 Global Progress Action Summit, he discusses the need for politics to embrace 21st-century innovation to address rapid technological advancements and public service pressures. |
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| In this conversation, then-UK PM Rishi Sunak and Elon Musk explore AI’s potential and risks, reflecting the intertwining of politics and Silicon Valley's influence on the rhetoric of modernisation. There is no doubt here who is interviewing whom: Sunak looks a little overawed. |
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Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ argument, often misrepresented, did not claim the end of events but rather the ‘end point of mankind's ideological evolution’. He argued that liberal democracy had triumphed over other ideologies after the Cold War, positioning it as the final, most resilient form of governance. Fukuyama acknowledged that history would continue, but the ideological contest had concluded with liberal democracy's global dominance. |
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In the late 1980s and early 1990s, liberal democracy did appear triumphant, even if only from a Western perspective. Theorist Charles Krauthammer hailed the end of the Cold War as the ‘unipolar moment’, in which the US stood as the undisputed global leader. Fukuyama’s argument resonated deeply with those celebrating the collapse of the Soviet Union and the spread of democratic governance across Eastern Europe.
With the 1990s marked by a wave of democratisation across Eastern Europe and beyond, Fukuyama's thesis seemed validated. New democracies in places like South Africa and Latin America reinforced the notion that liberal democracy was becoming the global norm.
Proponents pointed to the spread of market economies and the increase in global trade as evidence that liberal democracy was the natural and effective order, delivering wealth, peace and stability. The integration of the EU was also seen as a model of peaceful cooperation through democratic values.
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Samuel Huntington’s ‘Clash of Civilizations’ theory (1993) criticised Fukuyama for overlooking the role of cultural and religious divides, arguing that future conflicts would emerge along civilisational lines, especially between Western and non-Western cultures.
Rather than embracing democracy, several nations, including Russia and China, were and are embracing authoritarianism. The resurgence of autocratic leaders contradicts Fukuyama’s notion of a liberal democratic consensus.
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On balance, the case against has it. |
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| Francis Fukuyama and David discuss the state of democracy in 2014, reflecting on the ‘End of History’ thesis. |
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| In this more recent conversation from 2022 Francis Fukuyama and John Gray debate why Russia failed to transition into a liberal democracy after the fall of communism, and whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is really a wake-up call for the West, or evidence of the limits of Fukuyama’s original thesis. |
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The steady state model of the universe was an early alternative to Big Bang Theory – the latter now near-universally accepted by the scientific community as the best understanding of our expanding universe. Whilst the steady state model does not deny that the universe is expanding – which had been known since the ‘redshifting’ of light from distant galaxies was observed in the 1920s – it argues that the density of matter in this expanding universe remains the same, as new matter is continually created to compensate (see diagram). The distance in both models between the red and green dots remains the same; what matters is what lies between. |
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From a West Yorkshire upbringing as the son of musicians, Hoyle read mathematics at Cambridge and following work on radar during the Second World War, quickly made a name for himself in astrophysics. His work on the origins of chemical elements – which he demonstrated to be created by nuclear fusion in stars – culminated in the landmark 1956 paper B2FH, named after its authors’ initials (Burbidge, Burbidge, Fowler, Hoyle). Aside from this pioneering work, however, Hoyle applied his radical style to other problems in physics. Hoyle coined the term ‘Big Bang’ to describe the idea of an explosion of matter from a single point at the origin of the universe (he later denied that he had done so dismissively). His opposition to the idea that the universe had an ‘origin’ was in some ways a rejection of religious perspectives, as he thought it pseudoscientific to search for a beginning (i.e. God) of the universe. Despite increasing evidence supporting the Big Bang, Hoyle died in 2001 still questioning its validity. Hoyle’s views became increasingly out of touch with mainstream physics and wider science. Some of the ideas he espoused included: |
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Panspermia, the notion that life did not begin on Earth but in space, and was seeded here through comets, which also carried viruses and bacteria. Whilst the view that comets contain organic matter – now widely accepted – was then highly controversial, the rest of the theory runs against mainstream evolutionary theory. Indeed, Hoyle’s partner in this work suggested their aim was for a middle ground between Darwinism and creationism.
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After becoming increasingly disenchanted with academic backbiting in Cambridge, Hoyle resigned his chair in 1972. In line with his maverick approach to criticism, he once remarked: ‘It is better to be interesting and wrong than boring and right’. Hoyle moved to the Lake District after his resignation from Cambridge and became a prolific author of science fiction novels. His eccentric legacy remains in the city, however. St John’s College (his alma mater) maintains a collection of his personal papers, including several ice axes, a pair of walking boots, dental x-rays and an unpublished opera.
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| Hoyle’s most famous work of science fiction is The Black Cloud (1957), which draws on his academic background and tells the story of a sentient cloud of gas which approaches Earth, disrupting the climate and endangering life. This reappraisal of the novel from 2010 notes that ‘it hasn’t really dated, or only dated in inconsequential or charming ways’. Plus: ‘Hoyle even gets in a plug for steady state theory’. |
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| An interview with Fred Hoyle, towards the end of his life, in which he outlines and justifies his rejection of the Big Bang theory of the universe. |
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| Brian Cox, the physicist whose contemporary mass audience could be said to match Fred Hoyle’s in the 1950s, explains what is and is not explained by the Big Bang. |
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‘Other people said it was the act of a moron, and I confess to having been one of the morons.’ |
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Baroness Beckett, former Foreign Secretary, expresses regret at having ‘lent’ her vote to Jeremy Corbyn to allow him to stand in the 2015 Leadership Contest. Beckett did not support Corbyn, but believed his presence as a voice further to the left was needed to widen the ideological debate. He beat his nearest opponent by more than 40 percentage points. |
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‘I hope all those people that put Liz Truss in Number 10, I hope it was worth it … because the damage they have done to our party is extraordinary.’ |
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Conservative MP Charles Walker criticises the ‘talentless people’ within his party who supported Liz Truss’s leadership bid in the summer of 2022 after it became clear that she would have the support of the membership. The Mini-Budget of September 2022 slashed taxes without cutting public spending, causing financial markets to tumble. Walker’s blistering attack foreshadowed Truss’s government following a similar trajectory. |
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‘The quiet man is here to stay and he’s turning up the volume!’ |
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By October of 2003 the knives were out for Iain Duncan Smith. A punchy conference speech did little to ease fears that he couldn’t win back voters, not least because its strange climax failed to spin Smith’s anti-charisma as a positive. In a further failure of presentation, his voice grew quieter when pledging to turn up the volume. One month later, a vote by MPs ensured that his leadership went quieter still. |
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Do the Americans do it Better? |
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Follow this straightforward flow-chart to uncover how to vote in an American presidential primary. It really couldn’t be simpler! |
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| The average age of Conservative Party members is the subject of much dispute, with some putting it as high as 72, though it seems more likely to be around 60. Either way, it is far from a representative sample of the wider voting public. In 2022, Liz Truss won the support of only a third of her fellow Tory MPs but 57% of party members. The Labour Party’s membership, for all its vaunted youthfulness, is not much better – the average age is around 55. Party members are invariably older than the general population. |
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Not even the new monarch, supposed bastion of constitutional moderation and political neutrality, could pass up a chance gently to taunt the new prime minister as her government sank beneath the waves. |
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For Labour, facing off against Iain Duncan Smith was like shooting fish in a barrel. One such shot was fired by Tony Blair during Prime Minister’s Questions, when he turned Smith’s already-clunky ‘Quiet Man’ moniker against him. |
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This Talking Politics episode from 2020 offers an in-depth discussion focussing on Fukuyama’s best-selling book, ‘The End of History’. |
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David talks with historian Robert Saunders about Blair’s 1997 Election, where New Labour meant ‘New Life for Britain’. |
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Follow the link above for an online archive of our previous newsletters. |
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| Our final Bad Idea in this series is out on Sunday: David talks to Gary Gerstle about the messy and sometimes mad history of televised leadership debates. |
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| | We resume our series on the Great Political Films, picking up at the end of the 1960s with Costa-Gavras’s masterpiece Z. Then we talk to politician Chris Smith about his take on The Candidate (1972). |
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| A new bonus Bad Ideas episode on Sovereignty with historian of ideas Lucia Rubinelli.
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Questions?
Ideas spark ideas. If you have something you’d like to share with the show, please go ahead and email ppfideas@gmail.com or click the link below to access our contact form. Don’t forget to follow @PPFIdeas and tag us in your comments and questions on X/Twitter or Bluesky. |
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| Warmest Regards, Team PPF |
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