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We hope this update is finding you well. We’ve been pretty busy of late. Whether it’s seeing properties with a larger and larger buyer pool that we have, getting Raffi situated for his latest calendar photo shoot, or being interviewed on our changing market by local reporters, we’ve had real estate on the mind!

We’ve also been busily preparing and showing a pair of great properties for our seller clients that you can come and visit us at today if you have the inclination. The first is a large, stylish and recently updated single-family home in the Richmond District that has more than 2,800 sqft of space and up to 5 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms and two distinct living areas. 3136-38 Anza will be open today from 2 to 4 p.m. And before that, we’ll be at another large, 1,900+ sqft, top-floor condominium that’s bright and comfortable. 438 Steiner Street will be open from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. today. See the property videos and 3D tour links below.

In Other News...

The 800-lb gorilla in the room of rapidly rising mortgage rates and diminishing affordability and prices has been hard to miss this fall. We now have close to 1,700 active listings on the market — an extraordinarily high number — this means that there’s a lot for buyers to go through which means our fall selling season will go longer and later than years past. Instead of the market cooling down in early November, it’s likely we’ll see a good amount of sales well into December. For buyers, our advice is to keep looking and taking the time to see more (and more) properties. For sellers, our advice is patience and a reminder that all it takes is just one buyer.

Because of all this monetary policy, we have seen home prices come down to meet new affordability realities. For sellers this means median and average sale prices have declined, for buyers this means purchase prices are lower meaning less of a down payment and slightly lower property taxes going forward, but monthly payments may be the same or a bit higher than before.

New conforming rate loan limits for 2023 have been announced. Because San Francisco is considered a high-market area, our limits are higher.
  • $1.073 million - single-family/condo
  • $1,374 million - 2-unit
  • $1.667M - 3-unit 
  • $2.064M - 4-unit 
For many people these may not matter as much as most buyers getting mortgages will likely be using jumbo loan products but there are certain advantages that come from using a conforming loan versus a jumbo one. For those differences, check out our Mortgage 101 treatment here.
 

We have more than 750 subscribers to In the Know and our readership keeps expanding. But we can’t do it without you, your referrals and your loyalty — thank you for that. Be sure to think of us anytime real estate comes to mind as we’ll be here to help you and yours achieve your real estate goals. Happy reading. 


Very Truly Yours and Best, 


Kevin K. Ho, Esq. 
Vanguard Properties 
Broker Associate | Attorney | Top Producer | REALTOR
DRE 01875957 | SBN 233408
(415) 297.7462 | kevin@kevinandjonathan.com







Jonathan B. McNarry 
Vanguard Properties 
Broker Associate | Top Producer | REALTOR
DRE 01747295
(415) 215.4393 | jonathan@kevinandjonathan.com


Raffi McNarry-Ho 
Real estate super dog and Black Labrador Retriever extraordinaire. See his listing resume here.

 
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What Are We Seeing?
What Are We Seeing? 
See Kevin On the News 

Statistics released from the Census Bureau show that the Bay Area is losing high-income earners and professional folks in their late 20s and 30s to other parts of the country. Indeed, our own client pool is seeing this trend too where folks who would otherwise upgrade from their San Francisco condo to their San Francisco single-family home choose to head “home” to be closer with extended family members on the east coast or Midwest. This leaving-an-expensive-urban-metro-area to be in a small or medium-sized city is even more acute here because San Francisco is filled with so many transplants. See Kevin talk about that on a story that ran last week from ABC7 KGO. Watch the story here.

 
Come Visit Us Today, part 1

You'll love the wonderful home we will be holding open today at 438 Steiner Street near Alamo and Duboce from 11:00 a.m. –1:00 p.m. 438 Steiner is a magnificent top-floor, 3-bed, 2 full-bath, bright and spacious condominium, perched above the apex of where 4 iconic neighborhoods meet near to Duboce, Alamo Square and the Wiggle. Its top-floor perch above the tree-lined street gives it copious amounts of natural light + great outlooks, this home features its historic, tall-ceiling Victorian roots alongside amenities and just-updated finishes suited for living your best life today. The refreshed kitchen has brand-new, stainless appliances, quartz, countertops, LED lighting, subway tile backsplash, pantry, and a breakfast nook. From the kitchen, there's a screen door that opens out to your exclusive use and sheltered patio, complete with a heat lamp above. There is in-unit laundry in an updated bathroom. Spectacular light fixtures throughout allow you to create the right mood any time of day. A Victorian clawfoot tub anchors the primary en suite bedroom that also has its own sitting area and ample closet space. The other bright two bedrooms stay quiet thanks to the dual pane bay windows that face out over Steiner Street. With additional storage and parking downstairs there is also a shared yard in this two-unit HOA. 

Visit the website here: 438-Steiner.com
Take the virtual tour here.
Watch Raffi’s tour video below:
Right in the middle of it all at 438 Steiner.
Come Visit Us Today, part 2

You'll love the wonderful home we will be holding open today at 3136-3138 Anza Street in the Richmond from 2:00–4:00 p.m.  Behind 3136-38 Anza's stylish facade sits a large updated main home, legal in-law space and serene yard with a combined 2,824 sqft of living area. Near Geary, Golden Gate Park and excellent schools, the centrally located updated Richmond District Arts + Craft home has a quiet and secluded feel. The 2-level, 4-bed, 3-bath, nearly 2,000+ sqft main home has practical appeal like the coveted 3-bedrooms-on-one-level layout, alongside elegant elements like coved ceilings, designer LED lighting and modern bathrooms. A beveled glass backsplash, 36-inch Thermador gas range and plush window seat anchor the large, eat-in kitchen. The top-floor bedroom can be an office, playroom or workout space. Other updates include ample storage, dual-pane modern windows, EV-car charging, and air conditioning. If all this wasn't enough, there's a legal 1-bed, 1-bath, 800+ sqft in-law space with its own kitchen, laundry and entrance that's ideal for extended family living or supplemental income.

Visit the website here: 3136-anza.com
Take the virtual tours here and here
Watch Raffi’s latest tour video below:
There’s so much to see at Anza.

OUR PROPERTY VIDEOS + WALKTHROUGH VIDEOS

There’s a lot to see out there and you can’t be blamed if you can’t get out there to see it all, which is one of the reasons why days-on-market figures are going up as there is a lot for buyers and agents to go through. This is where we come in — as we’ve been out seeing properties and posting our walk-throughs on our YouTube Channel here (we’re up to 470+ recent ones but have almost 1,000 walk-throughs we’ve taken over the years).

Care to walk and talk?
 

Bye-Bye Q3: Yon Won’t Be Missed. But was it that bad? 

 
Context is always important especially in a setting we find ourselves now — an increasing normalization of the market in an era of purposeful economic cooling from the powers that be like the Fed. As such, the third quarter of 2022 saw significant slowdowns due to uncertainty and volatility in financial markets as well as rising interest rates; resulting in lower sales numbers and home-price appreciation trends.

The median sales price for single-family homes in San Francisco experienced the first yearly drop since 2011; recording 8.7 percent lower than Q3 of last year (but remember last year was an extraordinary year because we were also making up for lost time given the Pandemic). Condominiums recorded a smaller dip at 4.2 percent. Approximately 1,200 total units were sold across the city during Q3.

The COVID-19 lockdown was followed by unprecedented demand that continued through the winter-holiday season, peaking in spring 2022. Last month did see the expected uptick in key metrics across sectors, indicating we are returning to a more normalized and healthy market.

With this shift, we are seeing buyers affecting the pace of the market more substantially than we have previously as they are faced with relatively less competition for the first time in nearly a decade. We expect sales numbers to continue at their relative pace until late November when the winter slowdown historically begins.

National mortgage rates maintained their ascent last week. The large dispersion in rates means it has become even more important for homebuyers to shop around with different lenders. Take a look at the stats from Vanguard’s marketing intelligence unit below: 
 
 

YEAR-OVER-YEAR COMPARISON

SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCES

 
 

MONTH-OVER-MONTH COMPARISON

SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCES

 
 

CHANGE IN PAST MONTH:

SALE PRICE
+2.5%
DAYS ON MARKET
-1 day
 

MEDIAN AREA VALUES

SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCES

Q3 2022
 
* Denotes small sample size; Use caution when interpreting results.
 

TOP FIVE SALES IN Q3 2022

SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCES

 
2556 FILBERT STREET
Cow Hollow

$14,500,000  $-/sq. ft.
3 bed / 4 bath  - sq. ft.
2651 BAKER STREET
Cow Hollow

$7,800,000  $2,134/sq. ft.
4 bed / 5 bath  3,655 sq. ft.
2110 SCOTT STREET
Pacific Heights

$7,300,000  $1,062/sq. ft.
5 bed / 6 bath  6,875 sq. ft.
1625 MONTEREY BOULEVARD
St. Francis Wood

$7,100,000  $1,848/sq. ft.
5 bed / 3 bath  3,843 sq. ft.
2830 BUCHANAN STREET
Pacific Heights

$7,030,000  $1,732/sq. ft.
5 bed / 5 bath  4,058 sq. ft.
 
 
 

YEAR-OVER-YEAR COMPARISON

CONDOMINIUMS/TIC/COOPs

 
 
 
 

MONTH-OVER-MONTH COMPARISON

CONDOMINIUMS/TIC/COOPs

 
 

CHANGE IN PAST MONTH:

SALE PRICE
+17.9%
DAYS ON MARKET
-1 day
 

MEDIAN AREA VALUES

CONDOMINIUMS/TIC/COOPs

Q3 2022
 
* Denotes small sample size; Use caution when interpreting results.
 
 

TOP FIVE SALES IN Q3 2022

CONDOMINIUMS/TIC/COOPs

 
999 GREEN STREET #3201
Russian Hill

$17,000,000  $3,160/sq. ft.
3 bed / 5 bath  5,380 sq. ft.
999 GREEN STREET #3202
Russian Hill

$12,000,000  $2,432/sq. ft.
3 bed / 5 bath  4,935 sq. ft.
1 STEUART LANE #2001
South Beach

$10,500,000  $4,487/sq. ft.
3 bed / 3 bath  2,340 sq. ft.
1090 CHESTNUT STREET #3
Russian Hill

$9,809,524  $2,839/sq. ft.
3 bed / 4 bath  3,455 sq. ft.
1020 VALLEJO STREET #7
Russian Hill

$7,125,000  $2,956/sq. ft.
2 bed / 3 bath  2,410 sq. ft.
 
 
 

YEAR-OVER-YEAR COMPARISONS

 

MEDIAN SALE PRICE


$1,650,000
-8.7% year-over-year

$1,150,000
-4.2% year-over-year
 

MEDIAN MARKET TIME


15 days
+3 day change year-over-year

34 days
+14 day change year-over-year
 

NUMBER OF SALES


545 Properties Sold
-27.9% year-over-year

649 Properties Sold
-34.8% year–over–year
 
 
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