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State Revenues Continue to Exceed Estimates

Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration Commissioner Jim Bryson this week announced that Tennessee tax revenues exceeded budgeted estimates in October. Overall October revenues were $1.5 billion, which is $125.4 million more than October of last year and $178.1 million more than the budgeted estimate. The growth rate for October was 8.93%. October sales tax receipt growth, reflecting September taxable sales activity, made up 92% of the month’s growth from last year. The largest retail sales gains for the month came from the categories of building materials and eating and drinking places. All other state tax categories combined experienced limited growth. 

“In the first three months of the fiscal year, we are pleased to have outperformed our budgeted estimates by nearly 13 percent and to have growth, compared to last year, near ten percent. However, we expect these elevated measures will lessen as we progress through the remainder of the fiscal year. As such, we will continue to monitor economic activity and revenue trends to ensure fiscal stability.” 
 
Sales tax revenues were $128.9 million more than the estimate for October. The October growth rate was 11.27%. While sales tax is significantly outperforming estimates, fuel taxes are not. Gasoline and motor fuel revenues increased by 2.15% and were $0.3 million more than the budgeted estimate of $111.9 million. Year-to-date fuel tax collections are lower by 0.45 percent compared to this same time last year. Motor Vehicle Registration revenue receipts decreased by 35.13% from this same time last year but were $1.6 million more than the October estimate. August through October, motor vehicle registration revenues are 24.385 lower because of the one-year registration renewal waiver.

State Funding Board Meets this Week as the Governor Holds Departmental Budget Hearings

The state is well into the process of planning for next year’s budget. As has been the tradition, the governor has held departmental budget hearings in November. Those began last Wednesday and wrap up today. These are more of a Q&A between the governor and his commissioners, discussing the needs of departments and agencies and any improvement requests they make. The archived videos of these hearings can be found here:

https://sts.streamingvideo.tn.gov/Mediasite/Channel/mediasiteadmin-tn-budget-hearings-2023

Meanwhile, the State Funding Board met yesterday to hear forecasts and projections from economists on what the national and state economy might look like next year and what Tennessee can expect from revenue sources. Several presenters noted that this current economy continues to experience a significant mismatch between supply and demand of labor.

Even though there is a shortage of workers, prices have risen faster than wages and consumers have decreased their savings rate or in some cases dipped into savings to support consumption. Still, most of the presenters were optimistic that Tennessee would continue to experience revenue growth in roughly a 4% range. While this is not as high as has been seen for the last couple of budget cycles, the growth rate the state experienced during the pandemic is unprecedented for a period without rate increases. 

Presenters at the meeting included Ms. Laurel Graefe of the Nashville Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank, Dr. Don Bruce of the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at UT, Dr. Jon Smith, Dr. Joseph Newhard and Dr. Fred Mackara of ETSU, Commissioner David Gerregano of the Department of Revenue and Bojan Savic and Joe Wegenka from the staff of the legislature’s Fiscal Review Committee. Materials and recordings from the Funding Board meeting can be found here:

https://comptroller.tn.gov/boards/tennessee-state-funding-board/state-funding-board-information/meeting-minutes-and-materials/2022.html

Hickman Co. Receives BIP Funding

The Hickman County Highway Department is one of just 23 entities across the country to receive a planning grant under the Bridge Investment Program (BIP), the federally authorized program administered as part of the IIJA, passed last year by Congress.

The first round of planning grants under BIP provides $18.4 million in Fiscal Year 2022 funding for 23 projects in 23 states. Hickman County is the only recipient in Tennessee. These grants are designed to be used to create a pipeline of future bridge construction projects to improve safety, support economic competitiveness, and to provide resilient highway infrastructure that is better able to withstand the effects of climate change, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration.

Hickman County is scheduled to receive $120,000 from the grant to go towards the total cost of the project, estimated at $150,000 for a county-wide planning program. The department will perform a feasibility analysis of its 213 bridges and identify which of these bridges would be most in need for bridge replacement, rehabilitation, preservation, or protection.

Read the full release from TCHOA

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