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The third holiday season of the pandemic is kicking off, and as my colleague Dan Vergano reports, signs are pointing to yet another post-holiday covid surge.
Already, case counts are up more than 50 percent nationwide over the past couple weeks — likely five to 20 times higher, given underreporting. Hospitalizations ticked up 10 percent in the past week, and about 350 people are dying each day of covid in the U.S., mostly those aged 65 and older. Public concern about the pandemic and willingness to take precautions like testing or masking is lower than ever, which could allow the coronavirus ample opportunity to spread as people gather indoors to celebrate.
“We don’t have to have a big winter surge. But right now, we are on track to,” Eleanor Murray, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Boston University School of Public Health, told Grid.
The impact of this surge will likely be different than those in previous years, however. As a whole, we have a lot more immunity to SARS-CoV-2, since just about everyone has been infected, vaccinated or both. That will likely lessen the average severity of any individual case. But even a smaller surge still threatens to overwhelm hospitals, many of which are hanging on by a thread as they grapple with flu, RSV and other viruses. There’s a lot we can do to ease that burden, starting with increasing booster uptake — especially among the most vulnerable.
A recent Kaiser Family Foundation report found that just 45 percent of nursing home residents and 22 percent of staff are up to date on their covid vaccines. Among all ages, omicron booster coverage is still abysmal, with only 13.5 percent of the population having gotten the shot, according to the CDC. Increasing those numbers would go a long way to reducing the death toll of any winter surge.
As in previous years, testing before gathering with others can help nip a possible super-spreader event in the bud, and rapid tests are much easier to come by this year than last. Wearing high-quality KN95 or N95 masks can help cut down transmission too, and protect elderly or immune-compromised folks who might be at your holiday gatherings.
🩺 Read Dan’s full report on the current situation and how to stay safe here.
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