GEM TOPIQS Newsletter December 2022

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London, 8 December 2022 - Aon plc (NYSE: AON), a leading global professional services firm, today announced that it has joined the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation – a non-profit public-private partnership that develops and distributes models and data for a transparent assessment of earthquake risk worldwide - as Governor Sponsor. Read More

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Guy Carpenter and Willis Towers Watson upgrade partnerships with GEM to Governor Sponsors

Willis Towers Watson and Guy Carpenter (with participation extended to its parent company, Marsh McLennan) have both upgraded their sponsorship agreements from Advisor Sponsors to Governor Sponsors... | Read more

COP27: Launch of GRII Demonstrator

The Global Resilience Index Initiative (GRII) launches Demonstrator at COP27. The launch of the Demonstrator aims to provide the initial set of people, planet, and prosperity indices to guide financial decisions to scale up... | Read more

New GEM-USAID Project Forecasting and Communicating Earthquake Hazard and Risk (FORCE) launched

On the heels of the successful completion of the TREQ project partnership this year, GEM and USAID Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) are embarking on a new project called Forecasting and Communicating Earth... | Read more

Building Sensors Reduce Damage Error by Sixty Percent: The Future of Catastrophe Risk Management

In Safehub’s latest installment of the Safehub Resilience Network webinar series, “Can Building Shaking Sensors Prevent Future Tragedies?,” Safehub co-organised a webinar with GEM on October 6th about how to ... | Read more

Ten risk profiles for countries in Central Asia and nearby parts of Transcaucasia and South Asia, now available

The risk profiles were released as part of the outputs of the project “Developing a Disaster Risk Transfer Facility in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region” supported by the Asian Development Bank | Read more

GEM Governing Board meeting (1-2 December 2022)

This year, GEM held its second hybrid-format Governing Board meeting, with 17 partners and 18 staff attending in person, and 30 partners and 9 staff attending remotely. More than 50 guests remotely attended an open... | Read more

Oasis Conference summary

GEM participated in this year’s Oasis Conference held on September 28th in Zurich. John Schneider participated in the Collaboration to Enable Choice panel and presented a background on GEM’s roadmap to 2030... | Read more

In Photos: SATIC Event, OQ Conference, Cali Risk Assessment and Community Awareness Workshops

An event was held at the Banco de la República Auditorium in Cali, Colombia from November 21-25 to present seismic scenarios for Cali using Cali risk models; introduction of OpenQuake Tools; and training workshop... | Read more

CelsiusPro and GEM partnership aims to expand earthquake and climate risk financing options through parametric insurance

The Secretary General is GEM’s Chief Executive Officer and is responsible to the GEM Governing Board for the execution and management of all scientific, economic and administrative activities of the Secretariat. The GEM Foundation has a staff of 30 people, mainly scientists, engineers, and IT professionals. The Secretary General is responsible to secure a financial annual budget of at least 3M Euro, from sponsors, projects, and commercial income. The Secretary General is responsible for delivering the annual work program and is accountable to the Governing Board for all financial and programmatic decisions of the GEM Foundation.

“GEM’s successes over the years would not have been possible without the dedication and support of the partners and sponsors and most especially the staff of the GEM Secretariat. So, as the wheel turns and the search for the next Secretary General begins, I hope that I will be turning over GEM in a condition that would allow the next leader to effectively carry out the implementation of the Strategic Plan and Roadmap to 2030,” said John Schneider, GEM Secretary General.

“I am inviting candidates with strong management experience with interdisciplinary teams, international partners and participants, and extensive international experience in disaster risk modelling and/or risk management to submit their applications to SGRecruit@globalquakemodel.org by 09 January 2023 CEST.”

The position will be available from June 2023 and will be filled on a 2-year, renewable basis, located in Pavia, Italy. Remuneration is negotiable, dependent on skills and experience.

For more information on the Qualifications and Experience required and the Role Description, visit https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem-sec-gen-vacancy. Send queries or clarifications to SGRecruit@globalquakemodel.org.

A round-up of GEM's other notable activities during the past three months.

METIS meeting in Paris
Marco Pagani and Thomas Chartier (GEM Hazard Team) participated in the METIS plenary meeting on 15-16 November. The meeting, organized by partner IRSN, was held at the Maison de la Recherche, in the city center of Paris. Read more

Portugal National Conference on Earthquake Engineering
Catarina Costa and Vitor Silva participated in the 12th Congresso Nacional de Sismologia e Engenharia Sismica held in Lisbon from November 9-11. Read more

International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction 2022
This year, the International Day focused on Target G of the Sendai Framework: “Substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to people by 2030.” The DRR Day 2022 slogan was “early warning for all”. Read more

Watch out for NRCan’s RiskProfiler website launch in March 2023
RiskProfiler, a website developed by Natural Resources Canada, allows access, visualization, and exploration of information about the potential risks from earthquakes and is intended to support community planners, emergency managers, and Canadians at large to build resilience to earthquake hazards. Read more

The GEM Secretariat is proud to welcome its newest member: Christopher Brooks
Christopher is from the United Kingdom and is a seismic hazard modeller specialising in ground-motion characterization. Christopher joined the Hazard Team on December 1st. He has a Ph.D. in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment from the University of Strathclyde. Read more

GEM updates its website
The GEM Website has been updated in order to align its contents with GEM’s Strategic Plan and Roadmap to 2030 as well as to better serve our stakeholders' and partners’ needs and requirements. We’ve made significant changes that we hope will make your browsing smoother, find information faster, and your overall experience more enjoyable. Read more

The OpenQuake Forum

Are you a beginner or an expert in OpenQuake? Share your experience and join 700 others in the OpenQuake user group. Whatever your level may be, the aim of the forum is to provide the OpenQuake Community with a place to post questions and comments and find solutions to issues regarding the use of OpenQuake.

If you have troubles with the OpenQuake Engine or any of the OpenQuake tools, all you need to do is provide this information when requesting support:

Join the forum and become part of a global vibrant and growing community at:
https://groups.google.com/g/openquake-users

Watch out for the next release of the OpenQuake Engine in early 2023!

OpenQuake Engine Online Manual

The OpenQuake development team has released an online user manual to help support users with updated information about the OQ engine.

The official manual has been converted from latex into reStructuredText format made possible by funding support from USAID. The new manual is now online in HTML format and can be accessed at:
https://docs.openquake.org/oq-engine/manual/

An advanced manual is also available at: https://docs.openquake.org/oq-engine/advanced/. It has undergone significant changes. Because of this, old links will no longer work. It is subject to further changes so do check our OpenQuake page for future updates.

Report errors or any kind of issues (including formatting issues) at the following links:
OQ Forum - https://groups.google.com/g/openquake-users
Contact Us - https://www.globalquakemodel.org/contact-us

Hobbs et al. (2022). Scientific basis of Canada’s first public national seismic risk model. Geological Survey of Canada Open File 8918, 2922, 57 pages.
In this paper, Hobbs et al. used state-of-the-art computer modelling to simulate the likely impacts of earthquakes. This model includes the current best understanding of how often certain earthquakes will occur, what buildings and people are in harm's way, and how likely those people and buildings are to be harmed. The results of the model gave insights into further understanding of where the greatest earthquake risks are in Canada, considering the probable financial losses, damage to buildings, and injuries to people.

A hybrid ML-physical modelling approach for efficient probabilistic tsunami, hazard and risk assessment. Proceedings of the 19th Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, Aug. 1-5, 2022.

The authors, Ragu Ramalingam, Naveen; Rao, Anirudh; Johnson, Kendra; Pagani, Marco; and Martina, Mario investigate a novel approach combining numerical modelling and machine learning, aimed at developing an efficient procedure that can be used for large-scale tsunami hazard and risk studies.

Calderon and Silva propose a general methodology to monitor and forecast Sendai indicators by exploring trajectories of probabilistic indicators of mortality (A1) and economic loss (C1) in the form of custom Sendai Indicators for the Dominican Republic. Risk reduction targets, at the national and sub-national levels, are established and tested along with two mitigation strategies: nationwide retrofitting campaign and stronger code enforcement.

In this report, the authors provide a summary of the methodology and the selected events for each city where a scenario risk assessment has been carried out. The models and results are openly available now in the repository https://github.com/gem/treq-riesgo-urbano.

Hoyos and Silva performed a benefit-cost analysis to identify optimum retrofitting interventions for the two most vulnerable building typologies in Central America, unreinforced masonry and adobe, considering the direct costs due to building damage and the indirect costs associated with the injured and fatalities. Based on the results of the benefit-cost analyses, for a 50-year time horizon and a 4% discount rate, retrofitting unreinforced masonry and adobe building classes could be economically viable along the western coast of Central America.

This study presents a methodology to evaluate the consequences of seismic events in transportation systems, as well as in the surrounding industry. This methodology was applied to an industrial facility, whose production relies on the accessibility to strategic regions in the country, using the transportation network (roads and railway). The probability of activity disruption and the repair time was calculated for the facility and for the considered networks, thus enabling the estimation of the total losses that the company may sustain due to a number of seismic scenarios.

How improvements in earth observation and machine learning are re-shaping earth hazard assessment
As the number of satellites imaging the earth and computer processing power increases, the process of assessing geohazards is moving from traditional ground-based methods towards techniques allowing for greater accuracy, temporal resolution, and accessibility.

The article highlights work done by GEM’s Alejandro Calderon - a framework for forecasting the spatial distribution of population and development of residential buildings in Costa Rica using historical satellite imagery, in order to forecast exposure to seismic risk.

Safehub's Building Sensors Give Companies Peace of Mind After 5.1 Earthquake in San Jose
The article quotes GEM’s Vitor Silva on the usefulness of sensors both in detecting minor and significant building damage after an earthquake event, and how the data from sensors can be used to help make more informed decisions.

CelsiusPro partners with Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation
In this article, CelsiusPro announces its partnership with GEM as part of its strategy to continuously improve its products and services through ongoing investment in research and development. The partnership also aims to enhance both organisations’ earthquake modeling capabilities and products.

COP27: Global Resilience Index Initiative (GRII) launches Demonstrator - Insurance Development Forum (insdevforum.org)
In this press release by the Insurance Development Forum (IDF), GEM was mentioned as a GRII founding member and partner in risk modelling providing both technical expertise and exposure datasets to help create a new climate risk data architecture to provide globally consistent, open baseline datasets on climate risk and resilience metrics as a public good. The GRII Demonstrator will provide the initial set of ‘people’ ‘planet’ and ‘prosperity’ indices to guide financial decisions to scale up adaptation.

Oasis conference 2022 flashback
In this blog by Daniel Eckhart, Senior Writer and Outreach Expert, Swiss Re Institute summarized the event held on September 28th in Zurich by highlighting the panel discussion where John Schneider, representing GEM shared the Strategic Plan to 2030, and the learnings from the joint development of the Earthquake China model with Swiss Re and Hannover Re.

EERI 2022 Michoacán, Mexico Earthquake Reconnaissance Briefing: A Joint EERI-SMIS Webinar

EERI's Learning from Earthquakes Program and the Sociedad Mexicana de Ingeniería Sísmica (SMIS) invites you to a free reconnaissance briefing webinar on the M7.6 September 19, 2022, Michoacán, Mexico Earthquake.

Date: Dec 8, 2022
Time: 11:00 AM in Pacific Time (US and Canada), 20:00 (CEST)

The forum will provide a high-level overview of the role of GSOs in disaster risk reduction, including strategies, awareness of and advocacy on hazards and risks, financial risk management, building codes, and early warning systems.

The forum is organized by the World Community of Geological Surveys, the Global Earthquake Model Foundation, the Geological Survey of Canada, and GNS Science (New Zealand), facilitated by Sage on Earth Consulting and hosted by the American Geosciences Institute.

Global Risk Modelling Alliance, Selected as Key Resource for the Global Shield Initiative; further EUR 10 million funding provided; Pakistan Announced as the first Pathfinder Country.

“Insurance can influence systemic change,” says IDF exec after COP27
Michel M. Liès, Steering Committee Chairman of the IDF and Chairman of Zurich Insurance Group, has asserted that the IDF’s announcements at the recent COP27 climate conference are “a testament to how insurance can influence systemic change.”

Bridging historical archives and earthquake hazard studies in Indonesia
Stacey Martin, a Ph.D. candidate at the Australian National University, posits that knowledge of where an earthquake has occurred in the past, and how large it was, is crucial as it forms a valuable input into modern seismic hazard maps and helps to determine how buildings and other critical infrastructure need to be safely constructed in a particular region.

Revised earthquake hazard model helps Aotearoa New Zealand increase resilience
GEM partner, GNS Science reports that Aotearoa New Zealand's updated National Seismic Hazard Model estimates the likelihood of future earthquake shaking hazards to have increased throughout most of the country, ranging from almost no change to more than doubling in some areas. On average, results have increased the hazard by 50% or more, highlighting the need to boost national resilience strategies and readiness.

Validation of seismic hazard curves using a calibrated 14 ka lacustrine record in the Eastern Alps, Austria
Seismic hazard maps are crucial for earthquake mitigation and mostly rely on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). However, the practise and value of PSHA are under debate because objective testing procedures for seismic hazard maps are scarce. The report presents a lacustrine turbidite record revealing 44 earthquakes over the last ~ 14 ka and uses it to test seismic hazard curves in southern Austria.

Near real-time seismic data processing helps scientists understand aftershocks
A new method of automatically detecting and locating earthquakes utilizes artificial intelligence. The system successfully located recent Taiwan earthquakes and could help scientists monitor ongoing events.

Written in Stone: Inca Buildings Remember Ancient Earthquakes
Damage to the Inca buildings of Cusco reveals a forgotten earthquake history that could help scientists understand modern seismic hazards. Researchers studying earthquake damage to buildings across Cusco have cataloged thousands of displaced blocks and fractures, capturing evidence of two devastating earthquakes, one of which occurred in Inca times and was previously undocumented.

New oneAPI Center of Excellence Focuses on Earthquake Research
The center’s focus is to address the challenges of numerically simulating the dynamics of fault rupture and seismic ground motion in realistic 3D models. It will do this by optimizing an award-winning open-source simulation code using oneAPI, which features cross-architecture programming to create portable, high-performance multi-architecture code for advanced high-performance computing systems.

Stress transmission along mid-crustal faults highlighted by the 2021 Mw 6.5 San Juan (Argentina) earthquake
Authors integrate waveforms recorded at regional and teleseismic distances with co-seismic displacements calculated from the local Global Navigation Satellite System time series to re-estimate the source parameters of the 2021 San Juan earthquake, confirming a mid-crustal nucleation depth (21 ± 2 km) and right lateral transpressional mechanism.

Cracking the Secrets to Earthquake Safety, One Shake Simulation at a Time
A new experimental capability, designed to replicate realistic earthquakes in the laboratory, paired with the world’s fastest supercomputers, will help lead to resilient buildings and infrastructure across the U.S.

An improved rapid visual screening method for seismic vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete buildings in the Indian Himalayan region
This study proposes an improved method for rapid visual screening (RVS) to assess the seismic vulnerability of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings in the hilly region, especially in the northern part of the Indian Himalayan region. The proposed method is convenient to use for segregating the RC buildings in the hilly region according to the damage that they are expected to experience during an earthquake.

Overall structural seismic damage rapid assessment method based on period and displacement response characteristics
The seismic damage state of a building structure can be rapidly evaluated by coupling the effect of structural displacement response and periodic characteristics. Firstly, the fundamental period calculation formula that adapts to the deformation pattern and distribution mode of horizontal seismic action for reinforced concrete frame structure is derived. Secondly, the seismic damage assessment standard of building structure considering period variation is established.

Changes to codes aim to bolster quake resistance
New codes require that buildings that are susceptible to quakes be supported by ad hoc reinforcements until a permanent solution is found. Taiwan’s Ministry of the Interior outlined recent changes to building codes that include new mandates to reinforce structures susceptible to earthquakes.

New technology for retrofitting non-earthquake-resistant buildings can prevent major damage in old settlements
Researchers have found a solution for retrofitting old non-earthquake-resistant buildings with a technology that can prevent major damage to such buildings from earthquakes without compromising their strength. The technology called semi-confined unreinforced brick masonry (SC-URBM) can resolve the problem of the spread of settlements in earthquake-prone areas with constructions that have been built without following earthquake-preventive building codes.

Resolving puzzles of the phase-transformation-based mechanism of the strong deep-focus earthquake
Deep-focus earthquakes are very old puzzles in geophysics. In this study, the authors introduce a combination of several novel concepts that resolve the following puzzles quantitatively.

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Aon Joins the Global Earthquake Model Foundation as Governor Sponsor to Advance Collaborative Risk Analysis