Security of Supply and Capacity
Energy
Hydro storage sits at 147% of average for the time of year, a 4% decrease on the week prior. South Island storage is at 148% of the historic average, a minor decrease on last week and North Island is at 146%, also a minor decrease on last week.
The November update of the ERCs have been published, with little change except for a small increase in risk next February due to new planned outages.
The December update from NIWA forecasts La Nina conditions to impact Aotearoa's weather into the new year, but indications suggest it may dissipate from April onwards.
Capacity
Residual generation continues to be healthy as we move further into the warmer and lighter season with lower demand. The NZGB report for November 2022, covering the next six months, is available on the NZGB website, and forecasts no shortfalls.
Electricity Market Commentary
Weekly Demand
Demand decreased by 1%, down to 707GWh. Demand peaked at 8am on Thursday morning (1st December) at 5,143 MW, the same morning as the price spike in our insight.
Weekly Prices
Average prices dropped slightly on the week prior, averaging $15/MWh at Haywards and $6/MWh at Benmore. There were several periods of intra-island price separation, the largest occurring on the morning of the 1st of December, when North Island prices spiked to $1,000/MWh. The island prices separated at other times during the week, either due to the HVDC hitting its maximum northwards capacity or due to it being the risk setter in the North Island, leading to increased NI reserve prices. See the insight for more detail on the 1st of December price separation.
Several transmission constraints were briefly binding over the week, between Aviemore and Benmore in the South Island and Atiamuri and Whakamaru in the North Island. These were due to a combination of planned transmission outages and high north flow.
Generation Mix
Wind generation was slightly down on the week prior, contributing 8.6% of the generation mix. Thermal moved up by 2GWh to contribute 1.4% of the generation mix and cogen contributed 1.9%.
Renewables averaged 97% over the course of the week.
HVDC
The HVDC was in high north flow all week reflecting the high hydrological position in the South Island.
Ancillary Services
The ancillary services tender for Over Frequency Reserves, and South Island Black Start, is now complete and new contracts have been issued from 1st of December.
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