Alabama Cotton Shorts
January 19, 2023
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January 19, 2023
Situation. Estimates of the 2022 crop have improved considerably since August, at least with USDA monthly reports. See the chart below. Compared to early forecasts the final (?) numbers reflect increases in harvested acres, average yield and total bales. Late August and early September rainfall and overcast conditions threatened what was a good crop mid to late season. On September 12, weather patterns changed considerably and brought weeks of bright sunshine and limited rainfall. That extended period salvaged our crop, matured cotton, and allowed us to pick better than expected yields in many places. It was great weather for the crop and for field work, both of which contributed to a good outcome in terms of yield and fiber quality. We were hoping for an average around 950 lb/A, and perhaps the final gin numbers will get us there.
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The 2022 crop was an improvement over the previous two years. See the chart below. Prior yields reflected significant losses from late season weather; in other words, in 2020 and 2021, we had strong crops diminished by weather events in September and into the fall. By contrast, 2022 provided more normal fall conditions, something we have not experienced in several years. Historically, the latter half of September and much of October are low-rainfall periods and great for crop harvest.
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Overall fiber quality, and especially color grades, reflected the excellent fall weather. See the charts below. The upper chart includes the crop altogether, and the lower two tables show the results separated by the two Classing Offices. About two thirds of the crop is classed in Macon, GA, and the remainder in Memphis, TN. Loosely, cotton ginned south of Birmingham goes to Macon and the other goes to Memphis, though there are exceptions to that geographic divide. Almost two thirds of the total Alabama crop had a color grade of 31 or better. Outstanding! Leaf, length, mic, strength and uniformity are all good numbers as well and extraneous matter deducts were low, too. A really good crop. The numbers from Memphis were slightly better than those from Macon, which may reflect greater harvest efficiency and speed as a result of fewer acres (and fewer peanuts), better fall weather and other factors.
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The outlook for 2023 is for fewer acres across the U.S. Cotton Belt. With December ’23 cotton futures trading around 83 cents/lb, grain crops have an advantage in some states. Drought still persists in Texas and Oklahoma, but even so, the downward pressures of inflation hinder demand and thus suppress cotton prices. This time last year, December ’22 futures traded over 95 cents/lb. Still, compared to other Alabama crops in 2022, cotton was a STRONG in many parts of the state and performed when other options faltered. Brown
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Futures Prices, January 19, at mid-day:
March '23 (old crop) - 84.51
December '23 - 83.14
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Auburn University Variety Trial data can be accessed at https://aaes.auburn.edu/variety-tests/
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2023 Variety Selection. As we plan for the coming season, variety selection is a significant question for every producer. In addition to large scale on-farm trials scattered across the state, replicated, small-plot “official variety trials” (OVTs) are conducted at Auburn University research locations. In 2022, we added Brewton as a location to bring the OVT sites to six, which includes stations at Belle Mina, Fairhope, Headland, Prattville and Shorter. Altogether, 20 OVT experiments were planted at these research facilities, and 14 on-farm trials were initiated in grower fields. Variety performance data from both AU OVTs and AU On-Farm trials are located at https://aaes.auburn.edu/variety-tests/.
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Henry Jordan, AU Variety Testing Manager, in addition to making efforts to publish information in a timely and efficient manner, has worked with an outside group to develop the AU Variety Selection Platform. This tool enables an in-depth analysis of variety performance and serves as a collection site for production information, pest ratings, field pictures, weather data and calendar events. As with most sophisticated tools, the more you work with it, the more useful it becomes.
Newly added features make the Analytics option easier to use. Go to the AU Variety Testing Program website and click on EXPLORE THE DATA within AU Variety Selection Platform orange block. At the Dashboard click on cotton and then Analytics. Seven different pre-set menus make comparisons easier. With these 7 pre-set menus, you can (1) customize your view by various filters you determine, (2) examine all trials, all data, (3) compare only OVT, small plot trials, (4) look at only On-Farm results, (5) limit your look to FULL SEASON OVTs, (6) view only SHORT SEASON OVTs, or (7) see specific OVTs that you select. Within each view, you can select whether you simply see yield, total value/A, fiber quality loan value, or Top Yield Group. The Top Yield Group is a statistical grouping that identifies the best performers. As always, Henry Jordan, is a ready resource and eager to help if you have questions. Brown
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AU On-Farm Variety Testing / Plant Characterization. The AU On-Farm Program includes entries from the major seed companies, and since each has limited slots the list usually includes the best offerings. The Program represents an opportunity to measure yields, but also to get a hands-on look at the varieties. At two trial locations in 2022, we measured plant growth and development at multiple stages to get a sense of how each grows. The results are included in the two tables below from trials in Macon County and at the Gulf Coast Research and Extension Center (GCREC) in Fairhope.
There were obvious differences in seedling vigor as indicated by stand counts and vigor ratings, but all achieved an adequate stand for competitive yields. In Macon Co, all varieties had a similar node of 1st square, but there were clear differences at GCREC. Heights varied considerably among varieties and even there were obvious differences by location – a variety particularly tall at one location could be very different at the other. Similarly, there were differences in nodes of uppermost cracked and harvestable bolls, was well as total node counts. These data may give some indication of how X variety grows and thus how it might best be managed. Brown
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In the Old Days… Last week we attended the 2023 Beltwide Cotton Conference in New Orleans. The aura of the conference has changed radically in the past 10 to 15 years. Once upon a time the Beltwide was a huge gathering for growers, industry, academics and anyone associated with cotton. Attendance often reached into the multi-thousands. Farmers flocked to the meeting to be wined and dined, show off their trophies, rub shoulders with their peers, maybe sit in on a few technical papers, and possibly hear Mr. Cotton Merchant talk about (and nudge) the market. There were years when thousands were treated to a concert by entertainers such as Louise Mandrell, Lee Greenwood, or Crystal Gale. When a new product was introduced, the Beltwide was often the scene of a massive blowout marked with extravagance and celebration.
Those days are gone.
From crowds of 5,000 or more, registered attendance is now probably a thousand, if that much. Farmer numbers are very few. Industry comes and provides brief updates but often spends more time huddled in company discussions than in technical sessions. The format includes a consultants’ conference with great content but not great crowds. It is primarily an academic crowd -- graduate students, professor-types and allied technical staff presenting information from their research. Such as always been a part of Beltwide, but the BIG social aspect and farmer participation no longer exists.
I can report that as I was departing from the hotel, I saw one farmer/ginner from Northeast Alabama. He was checking out and leaving at the same time. We enjoyed a "good to see you ... safe travels ... see you soon." Brown
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This issue contributors:
Dr. Steve M. Brown, Extension Cotton Agronomist (Editor) typos and mistakes are mine
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About the Alabama Cotton Shorts Newsletter
Alabama Cotton Shorts is a newsletter designed to keep cotton producers in the know. From planting dates to crop inputs—there are many factors to consider. The Alabama Cooperative Extension System is dedicated to providing science- and research-based information, derived from field experience and observations. A team of Extension specialists are working to provide Alabama farmers with timely information throughout the growing and harvest seasons.
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