Security of Supply and Capacity
Energy
National storage has fallen by four percent compared to the previous week, currently sitting at 111.5% of average for the time of year. South Island storage is at 107.5% of the historical average which is a five percent decrease compared to the previous week. It was high as a result of the wet winter and spring and is now declining rapidly consistent with La Nina conditions. As noted above, the Waiau catchment is at 38% of full.
North Island storage has risen two percent compared to the previous week, sitting at 146.6% of average for the time of year. The increase in North Island storage is partially due to the effects of ex-cyclone Hale. With North Island storage so high Waikaremoana has been operating at nearly full output since 10 January.
There has been an upwards trend in Maui's daily production values over the last two weeks with a handful of days exceeding 100TJ's per day.
Capacity
Residual generation continues to be healthy as we would expect for this time of year.
The NZGB margins are healthy but there is a low point towards the end of February due to planned HVDC outages for maintenance. The latest NZGB report covering through to the end of May is available on the NZGB website.
Electricity Market Commentary
Weekly Demand
Demand increased five percent from the previous week up to 708GWh. Demand peaked at 4,982MW at 5:30pm on Tuesday the 10th. This week's peak demand was four percent higher than the previous week.
Weekly Prices
Wholesale prices increased from the previous week, up from $32/MWh to $53/MWh at Haywards as the contribution of thermal generation increased. Prices peaked at $163/MWh at Haywards at 10:00pm on Sunday the 15th.
Generation Mix
The percentage of renewable generation has fallen significantly compared to the previous week, contributing 92% of the generation mix. This is the lowest that the renewable contribution has been since August 2022. Hydro generation decreased from 69% to 66% of the energy mix, while thermal has risen significantly from 1.4% to 5.2% of the energy mix. Wind generation contributed 8.1% of the generation mix which is up from 7.4% the previous week.
HVDC
The DC transfer was predominantly northward this week. However, there were four overnight periods of southward transfer at the beginning of the week corresponding with periods of high North Island wind generation and low overnight load.
Upcoming HVDC Outages
There are a series of upcoming planned HVDC outages between 23 February and 06 March. Included in this is a bipole outage from 5:00am on 25 February until 18:00pm on 26 February.
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