Georgian politics found itself in yet another crisis over the weekend, as "informal rule" was promoted from the government's problem to… everyone's problem.
The leadership election in Georgia's most powerful opposition party, the United National Movement (UNM), ended in the unseating of incumbent chairman Nika Melia by the more hardline Levan Khabeishvili. But the losing side blamed the outcome on efforts by shadowy party veterans to impose informal rule through their money and influence. That perception is shared by many outside the party as well.
Before, the first name that would come to mind upon hearing "informal rule" was Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party – a reclusive billionaire believed to be the country's main decision-maker. In 2012, his party ended the rule of the then more autocratic-leaning UNM, led by then-President Mikheil Saakashvili, and has remained largely unchallenged since, despite repeated controversies.
That toxic stability is widely attributed to the self-reproducing political polarization between Georgian Dream and the UNM. Smaller parties that emerge to challenge the status quo usually end up crushed between the two poles. This polarization revolves around personalities like Saakashvili and Ivanishvili, rather than ideological or policy differences.
And the next weeks and months are unlikely to be any richer in policies. Khabeishvili, UNM's new leader, has made it his main goal to save Saakashvili, who is currently in jail and in worsening health. He has proposed everything from physically rescuing the ex-president from the hospital to dismantling the party in exchange for his freedom. This leaves the rest of the opposition, including former UNM allies, in disarray, but also with a wide spectrum of neglected but pressing social and economic issues on which to build a support base.
Important as they may be to the wider public, bread-and-butter concerns will not be enough to deliver a blow to the Georgian Dream's single-party rule, particularly given the party's massive financial resources and administrative power. A parallel could be drawn with neighboring Armenia, where the opposition – similarly dominated by former government leaders – has for years failed to capitalize on widespread outrage against the government over its handling of the Karabakh crisis.
Now government opponents in Georgia are faced with the heavy task of transforming themselves, and the political scene as a whole, without falling into the old patterns.
- Nini Gabritchidze
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