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Hi there,

There’s A LOT of talk about Generative AI like ChatGPT at the moment.

In fact, ChatGPT has officially replaced NFTs (and the metaverse) as the tech trend du jour.

Is it just a bunch of short-term hype again?

No, it feels different this time.

How so?

The immediate real-world applications look much more tangible.

Do you need an example?

I handed over the TNMT Newsletter introduction to this AI-generated virtual character today.

Take a look.

Today’s newsletter specs: 6:30 minutes of reading time, incl. two AI-generated images to show off our latest Hype Cycle updates.

Enjoy.

Lennart Dobravsky
Editor-in-Chief

Trends

ChatGPT's impact on the travel industry

Let’s talk about the OpenAI trend for another minute.

The intro video took us about 30 minutes to create.

We went to D-ID, built a character, chose a voice and tone, and created the file.

You might think this is all gimmicky and has no meaningful business application.

If this is the case, here’s another attempt in convincing you otherwise.

Our creative wizard, Tino, built an AI-based travel inspiration tool.

You can check it out below.

Click on the link.
Fill out the five questions.
Wait for a few minutes and check your email inbox.

Again, it’s all AI.

AI-based Travel Planning

Do you like what you see?

Here’s what Tino did, in case you want to replicate it.

He created a database in Airtable with the different parameters as separated input and used the formula function to merge them into a prompt for ChatGPT.
He then connected the Airtable (using Make) to the ChatGPT API. Once a new input is made, it is instantly sent to ChatGPT, and the itinerary is created and directly added to the database.
Once Airtable receives all of the information, it automatically sends the result via email. Typically, this takes less than a minute. However, we set it to 15-minute intervals.

Here is what’s most fascinating

It didn’t take Tino more than an hour to build and test this idea once he figured out how to do it.

I tried the tool to receive travel recommendations for my favorite city in the world, Vancouver, Canada, and it worked impressively well.

All major attractions were covered and embedded in an easy-to-read travel schedule.

Obviously, you can take this to even more sophisticated levels.

For example, some people have started connecting ChatGPT to Google Maps for automated trip planning.

The results look stunning.

The implications for travel

As all these examples show, Generative AI is likely to have massive implications for all kinds of obvious use cases around texting and imagery in the travel context, such as itinerary planning (as seen above) and customer service.

If you compare most of today’s airline chatbots with what ChatGPT has to offer, it feels like we got catapulted from the stone age into the modern world overnight.

As the technology continues to advance, it will be able to perform tasks that were previously thought to require a high level of education and skill.

So, should we all plan for unemployment then?

Well, not so fast.

When praising the advancements of AI, it's important to understand the limitations of what ChatGPT means for human agents and white-collar work in general.

As The Atlantic nicely put it, “It creates content out of what is already out there, with no authority, no understanding, no ability to correct itself, no way to identify genuinely new or interesting ideas.”

What does this mean for the travel industry?

It actually suggests that AI might make original travel planning more valuable.
It also suggests that ChatGPT (and other AI applications to come) will become a powerful tool for almost all knowledge workers, including travel agents and even research analysts like us at TNMT, to be more productive.

At the same time, it will create an enormous profusion of simpler content.

So, watch out for more shallow content online, whether this relates to frivolous travel recommendations or cringy, self-promoting social media posts by colleagues on LinkedIn.

With this being said, we shouldn’t be scared that AI will replace our jobs.

In fact, I agree with what TechCrunch rightfully concluded, namely that every profession witnessing AI encroachment, in one way or another, is actually excited and interested.

We all know our work well enough to understand that even a really good imitation of what we do is fundamentally different from actually doing it.

Let’s zoom out: the larger AI trend

ChatGPT is only one part of the larger Generative AI movement.

While it is difficult to predict what the exact extent of this trend will look like, it’s clear that AI will have a significant impact on the future of work.

In fact, the impact of AI on the broader Travel and Mobility Tech industry is already measurable.

Our Research Analyst, Anna, analyzed all job listings by the more than 3,000 tech companies across our Travel and Mobility company database to measure the number of job descriptions related to AI.

As you can see below, there is a clear upward trajectory.
And the uptake started back in 2019.

So, what we are seeing right now is just a small taste of what’s to come.

AI has now gone mainstream.

Research

Hype Cycle Part I: The elephant in the room

With the AI talk out of the way, let’s focus on what this newsletter is all about: the future of how people move from A to B.

By now, you’re probably well aware of our extensive research initiative to evaluate all of the major technologies that are soon to disrupt the broader aviation industry.

In recent newsletter editions,

We analyzed the state of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF),
We looked at autonomous flight technology in more detail,
We decoded the potential return of supersonic flights,
And most recently, we assessed the growing hype around futuristic airships.

These four categories were tremendously fun to analyze.

In fact, most of them were relatively easy to score.

Autonomous flight was the most challenging technology to evaluate, given its wide range of interpretations.

With this being said, it’s time to face the elephant in the room.

What is the current state of electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOL), aka air taxis?

The air-taxi ecosystem check-in

No other technology in the aviation context has been more heavily discussed than air taxis.

As well, this isn’t the first time we have taken a closer look at the evolution of flying cars and the companies working hard to get them off the ground.

Here are some of our previous analyses:

In early 2021, we put together a report full of data-driven views into the state of the air-taxi ecosystem, including a patent analysis ranking the eVTOL technology leaders.
A few months later, we created another report in which we visualized the commercial relationships between the various players in the growing Advanced Air Mobility industry.
Finally, we have repeatedly looked at Venture Capital funding trends into air taxis, the last of which took place in December, to stay up-to-date with current investor sentiment.

Whenever we looked at air taxis in more detail, the main takeaway was essentially the same.

The air-taxi startup hype looks extremely promising. There are:

Lots of interesting players,
A lot of capital allocated to these companies,
And huge market potential driving these innovation dynamics.

Most industry analysts shared this enthusiasm.

McKinsey, for example, predicted that, by 2030, Advanced Air Mobility (AAM)—the market defined around eVTOLs—would generate revenues north of $3 billion USD per year.

This is significant for a market that is basically non-existent today (even though it is tiny compared to the global airline industry, which was worth $782 billion USD in 2022).

Air taxis have lost momentum

However, these bold market forecasts have become more and more questionable.

As of early 2023, the air-taxi hype has failed to deliver any real-world proof of its soon-to-be-market readiness.

As time progresses, it becomes debatable whether or not air taxis will be ready to transport people in a safe, sustainable, and commercially viable manner before the end of the decade.

We continue to hear big plans and dates for market launches by various air-taxi contenders like Joby Aviation, Lilium, Volocopter, and Archer.

While this is the case, rarely do we see any meaningful test flights that last longer than a few minutes in the air.

And none of these test flights have transported any groups of passengers yet.

Nearly every test flight has been unmanned thus far.

Our outlook has become more bearish

This current scenario is what leads our Director of Research & Intelligence, Ivan, to a more cautious assessment of the air-taxi space.

In summary:

It’s been nearly a decade since the air-taxi industry first started gaining momentum.
Predictions surrounding the potential of this technology reached dizzying heights.
After years of hype, however, things have fallen into the Trough of Disillusionment.

More concretely, we don’t believe eVTOL companies will consistently transport people on commercial flights until the 2030s.

This doesn’t mean that Ivan doesn’t believe the technology will come to life.

Rather, it won’t be actualized as quickly as previously anticipated.

To learn more, please read the full article.

Read Article

Research

Hype Cycle Part II: Space Tourism

As we are heavy in the discussion of disruptive innovation today, let’s expand our Hype Cycle Analysis by another category.

If you think air taxis are exciting, it’s time for arguably the most inspiring trend in the broader aviation context.

Space Travel will take us to new worlds

Space has excited humanity for decades, if not hundreds or even thousands of years.

What is out there?
Are we alone?
Can we soon explore entirely new worlds like the U.S.S. Enterprise crew in Star Trek?

For the first time in human history, we are closer to answering some of those questions, thanks to technological developments over the past few years, such as reusable rockets and unmanned missions to Mars.

Private space journeys, in particular, could soon become accessible for the average person.

At least, that is, when we truly believe in all the hype created by companies like Blue Origin, World View, Space Perspective, and Virgin Galactic.

But how real is the space-tech hype?

We embarked on another journey to assess the current state of space travel and its potential to become accessible to normal people in the future.

It’s important to mention up front that when we evaluate the field of space travel, we refer to a future in which mainstream passenger transportation above the Kármán line (about 100 km) is accessible to the masses.

Think of it as a sightseeing trip around planet Earth and beyond.

Here is what we think

Based on the extensive research, we conclude that space travel has arrived at the Peak of Inflated Expectations and is now moving towards its disillusionment.

This means space travel has seen significant progress over the past few years.
But it’s going to take another twenty years, if not more, until space voyages for anyone other than billionaires are a possibility.

Why is this the case?

You know what’s coming.

Follow us into the full analysis.

Read Article

Press Picks

Our Recommended Must Reads

CHATGPT & TRAVEL – Every once in a while, a tech innovation develops seemingly overnight – and suddenly, everyone everywhere is talking about it. The pace at which ChatGPT has gone from unknown to ubiquitous seems unprecedented.
Read more by PhocusWire

STARTUP HELP – Startups want to help airlines prevent tech meltdowns. Recent FAA and Southwest snafus are advancing arguments for modernizing the industry with cloud-based systems that allow crucial operations data to flow more freely.
Read more by Wall Street Journal ($)

CLEANER AVIATION – Boeing secures $425m for fuel-efficient airliner project from NASA. The American aircraft manufacturer will collaborate with NASA to develop, test, and fly a full-scale demonstrator aircraft and validate the emission-reduction technologies.
Read more by NS Business

HYPERSONIC SKI-JUMP – Chinese researchers say they have repurposed the traditional ski-jump method of launching a plane at sea for the hypersonic age, aiming to develop it for easier, safer space travel.
Read more by MSN

AIRLINE NFTS – Last year, airBaltic became the first airline to issue NFTs when it issued an NFT showcasing an Airbus A220-300. Since then, airBaltic has issued multiple different NFTs in this series it calls airBaltic City Collection.
Read more by kambr

Deal Tracker

Most Recent Venture Capital Deals

— VC —

Tredence - The California data science and AI solutions company raised $175M in Series B funding in a round led by Advent International, with the funds to be used to expand its business reach.

Oxbotica - The Oxford-based autonomous vehicle software company raised $140M in Series C funding, with the funds expected to help deploy its operating system to new commercial and industrial sectors. BP Ventures, Halma, and Tencent Holdings led the round.

Tabby - The shopping and financial services app, which offers flexible payments online and in stores for over ten thousand brands, raised $58M in Series C funding, led by Sequoia Capital India, STV and PayPal Ventures, and others. The money will be used to expand the company’s product line.

Isprava - The Mumbai-based luxury home developer and rental home company raised $19.5M in venture funding, led by Symphony Asia Holdings. The funds will be used to expand the company's reach across India and other key markets.

CHOOOSE - The Norwegian climate-tech company raised $15M of venture funding in a deal led by Sound Ventures and GenZero, with additional participation from Shell Ventures, Amadeus Ventures, and others. The funds will support new enterprise sectors and broaden their portfolio of carbon solutions, which currently includes SAF, carbon removals, and verified offsets.

Kampaoh - The Spanish glamping startup raised $14.9M in venture capital to support the goal of tripling their number of glamping tents. Around $13M of the funding is debt from Alter Capital, Zenon Asset Management, and BBVA, with the remaining coming from JME Ventures, Axon Partners Group, and Encomenda Smart Capital.

Cruisebound - The cruise-exclusive OTA, designed with young and first-time cruisers in mind, raised $10M in Series A funding in a round led by PAR Capital Ventures and the former Booking Holdings Inc. CEO Jeff Boyd. Boyd also joined the board of Cruisebound.

ONDA - The South Korean hospitality tech company, whose main product is an integrated sales platform covering the majority of South Korea’s online accommodation market, raised $10M in Series B funding from investors like TS Investment, NAU IB Capital, Industrial Bank of Korea, and others.

Presso - The on-demand, low-carbon garment care startup, whose technology allows places like hotels and apartment buildings to profit from garment cleansing, raised $8M in seed funding from investors, including Uncork Capital, Cherubic Ventures, 1517 Fund, and others.

HotelRunner - The cloud-based digital marketing and sales platform, intended to assist hotels and travel agencies to improve their online outreach, raised $6.5M of Series A funding led by Wix.com, Ascension Ventures, and 212. The funds will be used to bolster the company's presence in offline markets, hire new talent, and expand with new offices and teams in the Americas.

Akia - The guest engagement platform raised $6M in Series A funding to scale its technology, which has primarily been used in the hospitality industry to automate tasks ranging from identity verification and security deposit collection to vacation rental check-in. Altos Ventures led the round.

HonestDocs - Dubbed the “Airbnb for surgeries” in SEA, the Bangkok-based online healthcare and surgery marketplace raised $6M in new venture funding, which will be used to further develop its technology. Lead investors were Z Venture Capital, iSeed, and Orvel Ventures, with participation from others. The company was also recently accepted into Google’s SEA Startup Accelerator program.

NLX - The conversational AI platform picked up $4.6M in Seed II funding in a round led by IAG Capital Partners, with participation from JetBlue Ventures and others. The money will be used for marketplace expansion and product optimization.

Grazzy - The employee payments platform, which allows workers in the hospitality industry to instantly access same-day wages, raised $4.25M in seed funding from Next Coast Ventures and Tuesday Capital to fuel expansion.

Quantum Temple - The Web3 platform, which uses blockchain and NFTs to preserve cultural heritage by facilitating exchanges between collectors and ancestral communities, raised $2M in pre-seed funding led by Borderless Capital.

Okticket - The Gijón-based fintech, which specializes in digitalizing corporate travel expenses, raised over $1.9M in venture funding in a round led by Angels and Zamit Capital, with participation from Encomenda. The funds will be used to incorporate Salesforce and for further product development.

Nourish - The UAE-based inflight meal booking platform raised $400k in VC funding, led by undisclosed investors from several countries. The money will be used for supply chain network expansion and hiring.

Dufour Aerospace - The Swiss aerospace startup, whose electric and hybrid VTOL aircraft aim to support sustainable aviation, raised an undisclosed amount of Series B funding to support expansion. The round was led by Vista Global Holding and two undisclosed investors.

— M&A —

Atelier Ace - The New York-based creative agency, which also develops and operates hotels, was acquired by Sortis Holdings for $85M.

cheQin - EaseMyTrip acquired a 55% stake in the hotel booking marketplace which allows travelers to bargain with hoteliers. This marks EaseMyTrip’s 2nd acquisition since announcing it was targeting at least three acquisitions before the end of FY23. The terms of the deal were undisclosed.

InTouch - The Australian hospitality data management and BI platform was acquired by MyDigitalOffice, a Maryland-based cloud platform for sourcing, processing, and storing hotel data, for an undisclosed amount. MyDigitalOffice says the acquisition will enable expansion into the Middle East and APAC markets while also growing its portfolio to include global luxury brands such as Accor.