A few years ago I wrote a short 65-page book. It detailed the 12 most important traits an investor should foster. The 12 traits together form the acronym "SPREZZATURAS". To remain calm at all times, to make sure you will be able to remain calm no matter what happens, by sizing your positions correctly, is one of the "Z"s in the middle.
I feel a certain type of serenity just by reading my own words on the topic. I had reason to post this very page (page 29, above) in a Discord channel I host, where a handful of high risk investments have turned to dog excrement over the last two years.
--- That was supposed to be it for tonight. It's 11 pm here, and I've just finished editing a podcast, after playing until late with my friend's 5-yo daughter.
But...
As an aside, I gave her a Kurzgesagt Human Era Hidden Worlds calendar for the year 12023 [they started counting 10k years before our year zero, to account for the real start of human civilization]. She was not impressed.
Actually, she said the miniature pictures of tardigrades, ants, computer chip gates etc. would give her nightmares. Too bad, the pictures are really cool. If you don't know what I'm talking about, check out one of their amazing 10-minute videos here: Hidden Worlds.
That technological fantasy is just that: fantasy. In the real world we instead have Chat GPT and Meta's Metaverse. We will never get "shrinking" technology. What we do have is 2-3 nanometer scale computer gates from TSMC and Samsung, and by 2029 most likely sub-nanometer gates from Inpria.
Sub-nm-scale tech is also pretty cool! It's actually a kind of nanotechnology, although nowhere near the lego-type of atomic engineering that Drexler envisioned in his seminal book "The coming era of nanotechnology", that have fuelled my fantasies about the future since the mid 1990's. After 2029, Kurzweil's and Drexler's ideas about mechanical nanoscale computers could be the solution to keep Moore's law for computing going and accelerating. Maybe, maybe not it will take us to the technological Singularity, where we humans are left totally behind our own tech. Kurzweil's book "The Singularity Is Near" had me believe around 2005 that the Singularity is inevitable, if not by 2045 then surely by 2065 or 2075.
Kurzweil's currently updating the book to "The Singularity Is Nearer". Well, mathematically it must be now some 20 years later. But in my mind it isn't, it's much more distant, possibly postponed indefinitely. I don't think machines will achieve escape velocity anymore, but I simply am not sure. In any case I have a completely different view of consciousness now than I did 20 years ago, than I did five years ago.
---
I read a lot of sci-fi when I was little in the late 1970's and early 1980's. By 1987-1998 I was playing around with my own sci-fi tech in the form of "Expert Systems", an early kind of Chatbots. I only had to wait for 35 years to see something that impressed me just as much, but here we are. I read Neuromancer (1984) by William Gibson in the late 1980's. It triggered fantasies about a fully immersive Metaverse and made me active in the game Second Life around 2004-2005, long before ordinary computers could render anything enjoyable. Fast forward 20 years and what we still have is Meta's ugly Metaverse, or Minecraft (ha ha). My youthful tech fantasies never seem to be fulfilled.
Neuromancer also triggered ideas about having a digital copy that could gradually take on more and more responsibilities as its likeness to me grew. Sooner or later it would be allowed to book flights, vacations, restaurants, by groceries, more or less everything but show up at all the venues and enjoy life. We are actually slowly getting there. There are such virtual personal agents running on chatbot engines that are rapidly getting very good at replicating their owners.
Next up on the agenda is the fusion of big data AI, nanoscale engineering tech, DeepMind's protein folding software and CRISPR gene editing technology (my little sister happens to hold a PhD in the field if you're looking for that). So, I'm more hopeful we'll get true nanotech engineering within 25 years than I am almost any other of the futuristic technologies.
However, once we've got that, all the others will follow too. Elevators to the moon, computronium, free energy, free toys, free transportation, ABUNDANCE (as Peter Diamandis calls it). I don't believe in mind uploading though, or the metaverse. I hardly even believe in self driving automobiles anymore :D
--- Just random thoughts tonight... And suddenly its 11:30 pm
Kind regards,
/Sprezza
P.S. This is just one(more)... somewhat of a commitment, as I said yesterday P.P.S. If you haven't listened yet, in the meantime you can hear me talk about some of my insights in my two recent interviews in English on Kook Jester and Curious Worldview P.P.P.S. The English version of The Investing Course (www.finanskursen.se in Swedish) should be done by April or May, so keep a lookout if you're interested in investing and finance. The first year will be about half price for a skeleton course but will give access to the expanded full-price material in the future
KARL-MIKAEL SYDING
Hedge Fund Manager https://antiloophedge.com/
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former Mg Dir, Senior partner and PM at Futuris (Brummer)
The HFR European Hedge Fund Of The Decade (2000-2009)
____________________________________________________ Host of the "Antiloop", "Future Skills", "25 minuter" and "Outsiders" podcasts Video interview, July 2020
____________________________________________________ www.mikaelsyding.com https://mailchi.mp/mikaelsyding/investeringsprinciper sprezzaturian@mikaelsyding.com
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The fund Futuris received numerous awards, including several HFR Best Directional hedge fund over ten years, and not least European Long Short Equity HF of the year 2008 and HFR's award to The European Hedge Fund Of The Decade 2000-2009 (all categories)
