Good Morning.
It's human nature to try to make sense of things when we feel uncertain (I've certainly been known to go down a rabbit hole or two when something doesn't make sense). But when it comes to investing, the investments that we think should rise and fall in various situations don't often pan out.
For example, after Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, intuition said oil prices would skyrocket due to supply constraints with the Russian oil embargo. Oil prices did spike in the first few weeks, rising from around $94 to $130 per barrel. But now oil prices are lower than they were before the invasion. And those who invested in global industrial and basic materials before the invasion made money when those sectors were expected to fall after the invasion.
Furthermore, when stocks are falling, it's hard to see what will bring them back around, so we tend to think they will keep falling. We also often fail to consider that the markets are prediction mechanisms, often looking out 6 months or more and move before we have a chance to take action.
Take a look at this article if you want a bit more color: Want to Invest Successfully? Quit Trying to Make Sense of It.
As Benjamin Graham liked to say, "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it's a weighing machine."
Bottom line: The markets are unpredictable, especially in the short run. So, as always, we will continue our focus on the long run.
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Thanks and have a great weekend.
Tim
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