Cumberland Advisors Commentary - 3 Metaphors & Default

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary.

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3 Metaphors & Default
April 30, 2023

David R. Kotok
Chairman & Chief Investment Officer
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This Sunday, we decided to take a break from the serious business of the debt ceiling, federal deficit, Federal Reserve policy, banking crisis, and the rest of the list. Instead, we would like to offer three visual metaphors that depict the difficulties of the decision-making process that drives the list above.

Here’s the first one, which suggests what the central banks and market agents would like to see done to uppity inflation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2VmLCEistg

In this next YouTube we can see how difficult it is to make a directional policy change.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsFZwxW6_JQ

Policy changes come about with the help of advisers and experts. So we dedicate this YouTube to all the counselors as well as their students. Please watch to the very end.

https://twitter.com/alifarhat79/status/1593956162067746816?s=43&t=z8sS7g0U1w6GQT3SGRNCsw

We’ll end this Sunday with a link to a 2016 Congressional Research Service report that discusses “Has the government ever defaulted?” The summary takes about as long to read as one of the YouTubes did to watch.

https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R44704.pdf

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