Edition 2, May 2023
‘Diplomacy in Distress’ – Sudan, Syria, Libya, Tunisia
|
|
|
As planes, helicopters, and ground convoys evacuate Western diplomats and United Nations staff, amid civilian deaths and fierce fighting between two military strongmen, Sudanese citizens who took to the streets to fight for democracy just two years ago, have been hitting out at the international diplomatic community for failing them. With a 72-hour ceasefire between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) negotiated by Saudi Arabia and the United States only partially holding at the time of writing, the conflict raises important questions about the failures and future of international mediation efforts. Furthermore, reports that eastern Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar helped prepare the RSF for the battle, raise concerns of a long, bloody, foreign-backed conflict, that will require bold and thoughtful diplomatic interventions.
The violence in Sudan, that has already claimed over 400 lives, and the alleged Libya connection, illustrate the interlinked nature of conflicts and the consequences of failed mediation in one state on another. As the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Israel, the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and the United Nations vie for prominence at the negotiating table, the international community needs to think through carefully how it will assist in bringing an end to this conflict.
Diplomacy Now’s May edition, titled ‘Diplomacy in Distress,’ explores failed mediation efforts in Sudan, Syria, and Libya, and the sad descent of Tunisia – once touted the Arab Spring’s only success story – into authoritarianism. Each story illustrates key messages and lessons that are a pillar of ICDI’s approach to mediation: first, that too many diplomatic cooks in the kitchen often ends in disaster; second, that appeasing strongmen and elites and military allies, often does not lead to sustainable peace; thirdly, that locally-led peace and mediation initiatives that include local political leaders, members of civil society, women and a broad range of stakeholders, are more likely to succeed. ICDI’s guiding principles seem obvious, but are rarely implemented, despite more that 77 years since the founding of the United Nations and the development of modern, international mediation.
Our contributors for this edition, who are scholars and activists from the region, will provide you with insight and analysis that you won’t find in the mainstream media. We welcome your thoughts and feedback on diplomacynow@dialogueinitiatives.org.
Jamal Benomar
Chair of ICDI
|
|
|
‘Diplomacy in Distress’ headlines with an analysis piece by long-time Africa watcher, human rights campaigner, and Sudanese pro-democracy activist Suliman Baldo, who takes us through the causes of the conflict in the lead up to a scheduled transition to civilian rule, the diplomatic failures, and possible scenarios and ways forward. He is also currently running a newsletter called The Sudan Conflict Observer, posting regular updates on the violence.
|
|
|
Syrian-Spanish scholar Jusaima Moaid-azm Peregrina explores the challenges UN mediation in Syria continues to face, as it risks being further sidelined as the Arab League and regional players appear to be heading toward rapprochement with Assad’s regime, after more than a decade of bloodshed.
|
|
|
We offer you a preview of ICDI’s recently published report, Libya: An assessment of twelve years of international mediation, authored by Libyan scholar Youssef Mohammad Sawani, that documents and analyses twelve years of UN mediation efforts in Libya, that have failed to deliver peace. Through interviews with Libyan politicians, civil society members, women’s leaders, and former Special Representatives to the Secretary General and heads of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Sawani traces the politicization of the dialogue process and the reasons why the UN never had the buy in necessary to establish lasting peace. The report provides recommendations for the UN to audit its efforts and for a more inclusive Libyan-led mediation process.
|
|
|
Moroccan historian and human rights defender Professor Maati Monjib explores the descent of Tunisia into authoritarianism under the rule of Kaïs Saïed, in the aftermath of the arrest of the speaker of the house and other opposition leaders. How did the Arab Spring’s only success story get here? How can Tunisia, a country whose own business and civil society leaders helped avert the country from civil war, return to the route of political reform?
|
|
We hope you continue to follow Diplomacy Now as we provide you with original analysis and insight from specialists and people living in the countries confronting the conflicts that we are covering. Please subscribe here and contact us for news, tips or feedback.
|
|
|
|
