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TripleCord Review
September 2018

Boise Regional Realtors reported these three main takeaways in regard to this month’s market analysis:

-          The median sales price for Ada County reached a new record in August 2018, of $334,400 for existing and new homes combined. This was up 20.3% over the same month last year, and up 4.8% from July.

-          Local home prices are being driven by the persistent and historically low inventory of existing homes compared to demand, and more new homes selling at overall higher prices, primarily due to rising construction costs.

-          In August 2018, the median sales price of existing homes in Ada County reached $309,200 — a new record — up 9.0% over August 2017. This number mostly reflects homes that went under contract in June and July — when we had the fastest market times on record — indicating that many buyers offered higher prices to be competitive in the face of high demand for the persistent low inventory.

Though the market remains strong and swift moving, every house and every person’s situation is still unique.  If you’re considering making a move in real estate, we hope you will give us a call so we can assist you in properly navigating the waters of the current market and how it might play into your particular situation.  We have a great deal of resources and information to assist you in making the best decisions for YOU when buying and selling!

Below are the current Ada County market statistics for July 2018 compared to July 2017:

Existing/Resale...

  • Closed sales – 823 (down 8.5%
  • Median Sales Price - $309,200 (up 19%)
  • Days on the Market - 20 (down 23.1%) 
  • Inventory: 843  (down 17.8%)
  • Months of Supply: 1.1 (down 21.4%) 
We also wanted to show how the number of months supply of inventory fluctuates based on the price range.  The current month’s existing supply condition in each price range is as follows: 
  • $159,999 or less: 1.4 month
  • $160,000 - 199,999: 0.6 month
  • $200,000 - $249,499: 0.6 month
  • $250,000 - $299,999: 0.7 month
  • $300,000 - 399,999: 1.1 months
  • $400,000 - 499,999: 1.1 months
  • $500,000 - $699,999: 1.7 months
  • $700,000 - $999,999: 2.4 months
  • $1,000,000 or more: 6.2 months
New Construction...
  • Closed sales – 301 (up 20.9%) 
  • Median Sales Price - $386,470 (up 8.6%)
  • Days on the Market - 43 (down 23.2%)
  • Inventory: 790  (up 8.7%)
  • Months Supply of Inventory: 2.7 (down 15.6%)
  • $159,999 or less: 0
  • $160,000 - 199,999: 0
  • $200,000 - $249,499: 2.1 months
  • $250,000 - $299,999: 2.3 months
  • $300,000 - 399,999: 3.2 months
  • $400,000 - 499,999: 2.8 months
  • $500,000 - $699,999: 1.9 months
  • $700,000 - $999,999: 4 months
  • $1,000,000 or more: 0
  If you’re interested in knowing more about the current state of the market, check out this informative  August 2018 Boise Regional Realtors Market Report.
View our up-to-date local events calendar, where we combine information from a number of sources to give you a wide array of events to enjoy with friends or family! 

Time Machine...
Treefort Music Festival

Boise has long been a regional hub for jazz, theater, and indie music, but our city seems to have “come of age” with the introduction of the Treefort Music Fest.  Taking place in late March, Treefort is a five day festival held in many venues throughout downtown Boise.   

The original idea started with a small two day festival featuring 60 bands.  By the time the inaugural festival was held in 2012, it had become an eight stage event with 137 bands and over 3,000 people attending.  The next year, the initial batch of early bird wristbands sold out in 17 minutes.  Tree Fort 2013 featured a much more diverse set of 260 acts from all over the country performing on 13 stages.  The third annual festival, in 2014, booked 350 bands and rejected over 1,000 others due to the sheer volume of talent that was interested in participating. 

The music genres have expanded to pop, heavy metal, hip hop, electronic, folk, and classic rock.  The festival also branched out to Filmfort (a film festival), Hackfort (a tech festival), Storyfort, YogaFort, and comedy showcases.  It was described as “an extensive community and cultural event where good attitudes all but fell from the sky.”  It has grown year over year, attracting more and more recognizable talent, with higher and higher attendance numbers and recognition from the media. 

The 2018 Treefort Music Fest was headlined by well known singer and songwriter, George Clinton & P-Funk, and hosted 462 acts.  Newsweek reported on the wide range of activities occurring across 16 blocks of downtown Boise, with 24,000 people from around the world enjoying the festival.  Treefort was hailed this year as “the greatest music festival in the country” and truly amplifies the musical soul of Boise!

 

What Does the Future
Hold for Home Prices?

Home prices are at the top of everyone’s minds. Can they maintain their current pace of appreciation? Will rising mortgage rates negatively impact home values? Will the next economic slowdown cause prices to crash?

Let’s try to answer these questions based on what has happened in the past as well as what we know about the current real estate market.

The Impact of Rising Interest Rates

We explained earlier this year that rising mortgage rates have not negatively impacted home prices in the past and probably wouldn’t this time either. Freddie Mac’s comments were very direct:

“In the current housing market, the driving force behind the increase in prices is a low supply of both new and existing homes combined with historically low rates. As mortgage rates increase, the demand for home purchases will likely remain strong relative to the constrained supply and continue to put upward pressure on home prices.”

They were correct. So far this year, home values have continued to appreciate above normal historic percentages and it appears the gradual increase in rates has had little impact on prices.

The Impact of an Economic Slowdown

Many people fear that when the economy turns, we may see the same depreciation in home values as we did a decade ago.

However, we recently reported that the same group of economists, real estate experts, and investment & market strategists who predicted the next recession will occur in the next 18-24 months have also projected that house prices will continue to appreciate for the next five years, albeit at smaller percentages.

It Comes Down to Supply and Demand

As always, home prices will be determined by the demand to purchase compared to the available inventory of homes for sale. For the last six years, demand has far exceeded the available supply which has resulted in the average annual appreciation to top 6% since 2012. That is far greater than the historic norm of 3.6% annual appreciation that we saw prior to the housing boom.

There are currently small signs that housing inventory is slowly beginning to increase. Months supply of houses for sale matched last year’s numbers for the last two months after 37 consecutive months of decreasing inventory. New construction data has also shown positive signs that inventory will be increasing.

As inventory begins to meet demand, we will see appreciation return to more normal levels. We are already seeing projections coming in lower than the 6.2% annual average we have seen more recently.

CoreLogic is predicting that home values will appreciate by 5.1% over the next twelve months and the Home Price Expectation Survey calls for values to increase by 4.2% in 2019.

 

Bottom Line

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explained it best:

“We’re seeing the first indications that price appreciation may be slowing, but the underlying fundamental housing market conditions support a natural moderation of house prices rather than a sharp decline.”

Content from Keeping Current Matters

Contemplations
from Katie:
Cast Down

Last weekend, I had the joy of attending an annual women’s retreat.  The speaker used Psalm 23 to paint a picture of the many ways in which our Lord is like a Good Shepherd to us (his sheep).  The message was life giving to me. I took several pages of notes, so, I can’t share everything here.  But, I wanted to share at least one thing that really stuck with me.  It was the picture above.  This picture is of a sheep that is “cast down.”  Before this retreat, when I heard the phrase “cast down,” I associated it with being down in the dumps, sorrowful, or burdened.  It does mean those things, but the speaker shared a deeper meaning.  When a sheep is “cast down” on its back like this, it physically has no way of turning itself over on its own.  The sheep must rely completely on the shepherd to come, roll it over, and get it back on its feet.  If no human comes to its rescue, it will die. 

In American society, and quite possibly in society in general, I think we all too often hold the philosophy that no matter what the circumstances, WE can “pull ourselves up by our own bootstraps.” We try desperately to do so, and we encourage our friends that they can do the same.  I actually imagine the standing sheep in this picture being much like those friends, saying to the cast down sheep, “You can do it man, roll over!”  But, this just isn’t the truth. In many cases, we are just like the cast down sheep--on our backs, trapped, vulnerable, bleating for help, and on our way to death if help doesn’t come soon.  We have no way of saving ourselves, and the other sheep around us can’t save us either.  Like the sheep on its back, we need to cry out to the shepherd for help, and if our friends want to help us, they need to cry out to the shepherd on our behalf as well.   The Good Shepherd always hears when His sheep call, and He promises to come when we do. He will rush to our side, gently turn us over, and give us His strength to help us to our feet. 

We are currently going through a situation with our adoption that makes me feel much like this cast down sheep.  I’ve tried to think of ways “I” can make things go the way I want them to but have realized I am helpless to control the outcome. I am vulnerable, bleating for help, and asking my friends and family to bleat with me as well. I know my only hope is our Good Shepherd, our Lord, who hears me calling out to him and who will come and set all things right.  Only He can get me to my feet and give me the strength to walk through whatever may come.

If you are presently going through something that has left you cast down on your back and unable to turn over, we would be honored if you would share your story with us so we could come alongside you and help in the best way we know how—by bleating to our Father along with you and trusting He will come to your rescue!  He is indeed the Good Shepherd, who promises to restore your soul!      

“The Lord is my shepherd; I shall not want.
He makes me lie down in green pastures.
He leads me beside still waters.
He restores my soul.
He leads me in paths of righteousness for his name’s sake.
Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death,
I will fear no evil, for you are with me;
Your rod and your staff they comfort me.
You prepare a table before me in the presence of my enemies;
You anoint my head with oil; my cup overflows.
Surely goodness and mercy shall follow me all the days of my life,
And I shall dwell in the house of the Lord forever.”  ~Psalm 23    

 

Katie M. Miller
Realtor/Broker
(208) 861-5639
Email Me
Karin Schick
Realtor
(208) 412-5573
Email Me
Becka Marston
Realtor
(208) 957-8017
Email Me
Mark Gould
Realtor
(208) 608-2856
Email Me
Ken Sugarman
Realtor
(208) 585-1032
Email Me
Kara Kasper
Realtor
(208) 891-2177
Email Me
Sara Walker
Realtor
(208) 921-7743
Email Me
Tony Ball
Realtor
(208) 870-6400
Email Me
Joy Logan
Realtor
(208) 890-9039
Email Me
Anna Strausbaugh
Realtor
(208) 890-5236
Email Me
COMING SOON...
257 W Redgrave Dr
NE Meridian
$444,900

 
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